Skip to comments.Roubini (Dr. Doom) Says: Dow 5000, Banks Insolvent, Three-Year Recession ('til 2012 elections...?)
Posted on 03/09/2009 4:07:48 PM PDT by quesney
The man who predicted the current financial crisis said the US recession could drag on for years without drastic action.
Among his solutions: fix the housing market by breaking "every mortgage contract."
"We are in the 15th month of a recession," said Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, told CNBC in a live interview. "Growth is going to be close to zero and unemployment rate well above 10 percent into next year."
Echoing a speech he made earlier in the day, Roubini said he sees "no hope for the recession ending in 2009 and will more than likely last into 2010."
Roubini, who is also known as "Dr. Doom," told CNBC that the risk of a total meltdown has been reversed for now but that the economy is going through "a death by a thousand cuts." He also said that "most of the U.S. financial institutions are entirely insolvent."
"The market friendly view for the banks is nationalization," said Roubini. "Temporarily take over the banks, clean them up and get them working again."
Earlier in the day, Roubini spoke to the CBOE Risk Management Conference and said he believes total losses could peak at $3.6 trillion in the financial system, with half of that being borne by banks and bank dealers and the other half borne by hedge funds and pension funds, among others.
He said that while U.S. GDP next year could be zero, global GDP could dip into negative territory.
"We could end up ... with a 36-month recession, that could be "L-shaped stagnation, or near depression," Roubini said. He puts the chance of a severe U-shaped recession at 66.7 percent, and a more severe L-shaped recession at 33.3 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
A 3-year recession that takes us into 2012? A not so subtle dig at Obama?
It’s that “temporarily” part I have trouble with. Didn’t income tax start out as a “temporary” fix about 70 years ago?
its going to be longer if we keep with leftist policies
I’d count on a lot longer.
HMMM...and how long have the democrats been in control of congress?
I take issue with the 15th month of a recession. At this time last year the stock market was well on its way to 14,000, the GDP was NOT negative, and we had less than 5% unemployment. Hardly a recession.
Let me add to this ~ we are moving into the core area of a worldwide drought ~ this is the kind that precipitates great famines ~ just like in the 1800s.
No, it's not hot GW weather that's the problem ~ it's the cool, dry air that results from a toning down of the Sun's radiation. Doesn't take much either.
The world's peasants have already detected the problem, whether it happened when they found out a 25 pound bag of rice was more than $20 or when they noticed the neighborhood stream was DRY.
The condition has continued to grow and is now into its third year.
This will probably be the last tolerable year in the cycle. Next year the megadeaths ~ whole nations wiped out as if they'd never existed. Mud filled, stagnant rivers clogged with the bodies of dead cattle and men. Millions of villages burned to the ground by untended cooking fires. Streams of humanity making their way South in China and North in America.
I see it as if it is happening now.
Not a bad deal for those of us smart enough to get out of our long positions in real estate before the summer of 2005.
But I agree with you about the Unconstitutionality (and moral evil) of government-imposed reductions in mortgage balances (or interest rates) after the fact.
Thats why there is a gradual sell off of equities on the stock market.
People are selling their equities and putting their money into secure positions for the longer haul ( many off -shore).
Obama? He's toast.
Obama could have changed every thing by ending Capital Gains for 3 years, and zero corporate taxes, and continued tax breaks for Americas investment class, ( so called ).But Obama is "ideologically challenged."
He pooped the chute. Mowed the bone. Shite the bed.That was the fasted demise of a presidency I have ever seen.
Gonzo. Kaput. Kurfed. Bimbaswazzled.
Nothing can now stop the decline, and the bank runs will begin in about 2 weeks.
And Obama wanted it, or else he is just about the stupidest bozo to ever achieve the office.
After the creation of this Obacrisis, watch for the totalitarian fascist roll out to solve all "our" problems.And thats when America REALLY kicks his butt, all the way back to Chicago.
“He said that while U.S. GDP next year could be zero, global GDP could dip into negative territory.
Now that’s bad. Real bad. Zero GPD — indeed!
I think you are right about the drought but wrong about mass starvation anywhere except africa.
In the US, we waste about 20 percent of our food anyway and we can also grow more by using our back yards for gardens.
We also waste a ton of water. And we can fish farm with algea providing the feed stock.
And if a few hundred million in africa can not afford food, their dying off will balance the equation.
Financial Reports Show 5 Biggest Banks Face Huge Loss Risk
McClatchy Newspapers ^ | March 9, 2009 | By Greg Gordon and Kevin G. Hall
Posted on Monday, March 09, 2009 4:56:46 PM
The banks’ quarterly financial reports show that as of Dec. 31:
_ J.P. Morgan had potential current derivatives losses of $241.2 billion, outstripping its $144 billion in reserves, and future exposure of $299 billion.
_ Citibank had potential current losses of $140.3 billion, exceeding its $108 billion in reserves, and future losses of $161.2 billion.
_ Bank of America reported $80.4 billion in current exposure, below its $122.4 billion reserve, but $218 billion in total exposure.
_ HSBC Bank USA had current potential losses of $62 billion, more than triple its reserves, and potential total exposure of $95 billion.
_ San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, which agreed to take over Charlotte-based Wachovia in October, reported current potential losses totaling nearly $64 billion, below the banks’ combined reserves of $104 billion, but total future risks of about $109 billion.
Kopff, the bank shareholders’ expert, said that several of the big banks’ risks are so large that they are “dead men walking.”
The banks’ credit-default portfolios have gotten little scrutiny because they’re off-the-books entries that are largely unregulated. However, government officials said in late February that federal examiners would review the top 19 banks’ swap exposures in the coming weeks as part of “stress tests” to evaluate the institutions’ ability to withstand further deterioration in the economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at mcclatchydc.com ...
0bama is the anti-Reagan. I hope America wakes up and realizes 0 doesn’t have a clue how to stimulate a free market capitalist economy.
It’s worse than he thinks, if Team Obama and their already passed regulations and bills continue to have force.
Yeah, and negative GDP is even worse. To do that you have to hire people at $100/hr to destroy things at a rate of $150/hr.
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