Posted on 02/19/2009 7:15:54 PM PST by KoRn
If you measure "prosperity" by stock prices we're somewhere back in 1997 or 1998. But if the entirety of these two bubbles were fraud-driven (and they were) then a realistic expectation is that we will not only return to 1995 stock prices (about ~450 on the S&P 500) but we will over-correct significantly because the debt that this fraud created still remains in the economy!
That could easily cut the S&P in half again, which puts my 210 "oh God" print on the table, no?
Let's be clear here: There is no way out of this box, and the corruption and fraud have permeated every corner of our financial, media and governmental systems.
We give "free" education and health care to illegal aliens, paid for out of citizen tax dollars. Our government supports this.
We propose to give "foreclosure relief" to people who lied on their mortgage applications; how many of the so-called "rescue" programs would have ANY uptake among the public if as part of the refinance or assistance process the original paperwork was re-underwritten to discover if you lied, and if you did, you were prosecuted instead of being helped?
We have done exactly nothing to indict and prosecute the banking executives, the housing industry executives and others in the business world who contributed to these lies and frauds, in some cases explicitly.
The Congresspeople who got "special deals" from Countrywide Financial (and others) on their mortgages remain in office and are not being charged and tried for what, in my opinion, amounts to public corruption. The amounts involved here are not small - the "savings" in many cases ran into the tens of thousands of dollars.
It has been disclosed that several sitting Congressmen received tens of thousands of dollars...
(Excerpt) Read more at market-ticker.denninger.net ...
I can’t even read this sh*t anymore...it makes me question why I even bother going to work every day.
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Given your line of work, I could sure as hell imagine why. This entire mess has to be demoralizing, and down right infuriating. And that's aside from your place as a tax paying, mortgage paying citizen, which is equally demoralizing and infuriating given what is happening before our very eyes.
We are getting close to the point of grabbing the torches and pitchforks... literally.
/mark
The bank I work for is in pretty good shape.
However, I fear we may reach a point where even the good banks are dragged down with the bad.
Some days I’m more optimistic than others.
In better news I think the American people are already waking up, and Obama’s star has already faded - between the CNBC guy’s rant today as well as that high school in Mesa, AZ...I think we might be headed for better times, eventually.
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“stimulus” is the opiate of the masses.
I figure in about six months, the Dow is at 4000
Do not despair. There was a recent article about the Great Depression in the 1930’s. People who had jobs (75 percent)actually lived well versus the 25 percent that were unemployed. During the Depression, things got cheap. People who had jobs were able to buy things that were unaffordable during prosperity. Key thing is organize your family and street to survive the downturn. Read a story how a farmer during the Depression took on relatives/friends who lost everything and together worked the farm, shared the chores in return for food and shelter.
That's one thing I'm afraid of. The "banking queen"(Frank) in congress is going to screw up all of the banks(executive pay caps, ect) participating in the bailouts/'nationalization' to the point of where they will be at a disadvantage. This will prompt the banking queen and Pelosi to force those regulations on good banks that haven't been bailed out, to "level the playing field"....making it equally terrible for ALL banks.
There's no doubt we are on a slippery slope here.
True enough. Although, I don’t have a farm, I have a condo, and despite buying something we could afford and putting money down, I fear we’ll STILL be upside down for 20 years if this keeps up.
The real buying opportunity will be next year. I think DJIA will slowly drop over the next year. Given all of the bubbles and debt, I think the realistic level is 6700+. But it will spend the next 12 months dropping to 5700+. (Overshoots on the way down). Look for 5700 range Jan-Mar 2010. Then it will start to recover quickly at about 7% a year.
Yup...and I think in the process, the GOP regains control of the House in 2010.
BTW it always overshoots on the way down. I think many bank stocks (the well capitalized, profitable banks that don’t have any/many subprime loans on the books) are already undervalued FWIW but will probably go down more.
Well I guess I could always run for Congress in 2010...for what it’s worth, I think the Democrats and Obama are going to wear on the American People like a bad house guest who smokes too much, leaves wet towels on the floor, and eats all your food.
Of course, I don’t stand a chance getting elected in my House district (MD-7, Elijah Cummings’ gerrymandered district).
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