Posted on 12/07/2008 2:51:46 AM PST by flattorney
In a shocker, there will be a GOP Rep. in New Orleans. In a surprising twist, GOPers won a sweep in LA tonight in two general elections, picking up embattled Rep. Bill Jefferson's (D-LA 02) seat in New Orleans, and holding retiring Rep. Jim McCrery's (R) seat in the Shreveport-based Fourth District. But the surprise of the night, and possibly the cycle, was in the Big Easy. Atty Ahn “Joseph” Cao (R) defeated Jefferson 50-47%. Dems outnumber GOPers here 6-1, and African Americans make up 61% of the vote. But the NRCC must've had an inkling that something was up here, as they dumped about $60K into the CD earlier this week. They attacked Jefferson in automated phone calls for the bribery and corruption charges he faces in an upcoming trial. Dems cried foul, but apparently the message hit home.
While Cao was earning the support of GOPers nationally and in LA -- he was backed by popular Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) -- Jefferson saw no such support from Dems. Indeed, unlike in the GA SEN runoff and in LA-04, Pres-elect Obama stayed out of the contest altogether. The DCCC didn't contribute any funds here, either. This race was all about Jefferson's ethics problems, and Cao ran a very effective campaign to take advantage of the Dem's weaknesses. While the odds are stacked against Cao holding this seat past the '10 cycle, this win has got to be a shot in the arm for GOPers looking for a morale boost after two disastrous cycles.
In the other LA race that was supposed to be the marquee matchup tonight, physician/Subway restaurant owner John Fleming(R) leads Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche(D) by 356 votes, will all the precincts reporting. The AP has yet to call the race, and may wait until provisional ballots are counted to declare a winner. Dems had hoped that Carmouche's social conservatism, along with the law-and-order credentials gained as DA, would carry him to victory here. But while Carmouche performed better than most Dems -- he carried six of the CD's counties, while Obama carried just one -- it still was not enough to overcome the huge GOP leanings of this CD. On 11/4, John McCain carried it by over 60%.
The race featured two very high-profile surrogates that potentially could match up in '12 WH race. Obama recorded a radio ad for Carmouche, and claimed that, "To change America and to get Louisiana's economy back on track - I need leaders like Paul Carmouche working with me in Washington." Obama's camp also sent out a call for volunteers and a fundraising e-mail to their LA list. Meanwhile, popular LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) endorsed Fleming, which Fleming touted in a TV ad during the campaign's final days. In spending nearly $1.2 million, the DCCC drubbed Fleming on a familiar topic -- his support for a 23% nat'l sales tax, or the "Fair" tax. Dems have been successful in ID, PA and VA in using the issue to turn the tables on the GOP, who usually own the tax issue. The NRCC, which dumped over $970K into the CD, hit Carmouche for his tenure as Caddo Parish DA. In one TV ad, the committee hit Carmouche for not prosecuting a criminal, who was arrested 53 times, under the state's repeat offender law. After his release, the criminal committed 20 more crimes in the span of the next three weeks.
But despite the efforts of Carmouche and Dems to portray Fleming as out-of-step with even GOPers, he was still apparently able to hold on, albeit by the slightest of margins. With these results, Dems have gained a net of 19 seats this cycle. They could potentially pick up two more in VA-05 and OH-15, although votes are still being tallied in both contests. Tonight's GOP wins are big for a party that has been demoralized by two difficult cycles. We'll see in the coming months if tonight's results represent a true shift towards the GOP heading into the '10 midterms, or whether they were just a blip on the road to another successful cycle for Dems.
It’s pronounced Cow.
“...The marriage/children rule of the RC Church works wonders in that case...”
That’s why I never considered marrying a Catholic.
I think some of those RINO Governors were complicit in destroying the viability of the MA GOP (and that’s not the only state, either). I see Weld finally gave up his farce of an act of claiming he was ever a Republican when he endorsed the False Messiah (and Slick Willard might as well follow suit, he’s as much of a Republican as Coupe DeVille).
I was reading this article about Torkildsen, who is quitting as GOP Chief after apparently doing... zilch. Torkildsen must’ve lost touch with reality when he uttered this gem: “I will not rest until we have Senate President Richard Tisei and Speaker of the House Brad Jones.” Was Pete aware the difficulty of getting a Speakership from a party holding 12% of the seats (now 10%) ? The goal is to get rid of the Country Clubber Brahmin elitists holding onto a paper-only party. If we turned it into a strictly Conservative party, we could get it up to at least 25-30% with hard work. A majority goal at this point is ludicrous, we just need a solid bloc of Conservatives there to toss sabot into the ultraleft workings. Once we’ve gotten that nice 1/3rd bloc, we can build on that.
If we don’t do that, we might as well just hire a Democrat to run the state GOP, since they couldn’t shrink it that much (what, 8%, 5% ?). Worse, too, what few Republicans are left in the legislature are left-wingers that scarcely differ from their Democrat friends. They are ALL a part of the problem.
He completely left out that all other taxes would be abolished, along with a tax prebate to cover the cost of groceries, because he probably never read a book about it.
He is considered a conservative Dumbocrat from Bush's “home” district. The guy is a complete fraud, and was in the running for Hussein's VP ticket. The day he gets voted out, I will have a giant bottle of champagne.
Coupe Dewho? Deval? Weld? "said Senate Minority Leader Richard Tisei, who said he learned of Torkildsen’s departure Wednesday. “I think Peter did as good a job as he could have done under the circumstances"
Really Rich? Doesn't sound like a very demanding job. Where do I sign up? I'll work hard, like Pete.
A rat running it wouldn't be any worse. Actually it's a great idea they know how to elect people.
bttt
What was Weeks deal do you know? Think Kieth was too conservative? Too liberal? Or did he just want to buy himself a seat?
Debbil Patrick.
I found this article:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3827/is_/ai_n15637949
Weeks was apparently a leftist moonbat, sounded more like he was running interference for the Democrats, just like a vermin RINO weasel. To call Keith a “(right-wing) reactionary” was ludicrous. Keith scored an overall 45% rating from the ACU for the two years average they were keeping score in his last two years. Anyone to the left of the 50% mark is a liberal by Republican standards. It’s amazing, those Brahmins didn’t used to be liberals, go back a few generations and they were bedrock Conservatives. Somewhere along the line, perhaps in college, they were turned into rabid loonies.
The legislation may have been badly crafted, but I think it was a deliberate attempt to harm the black family. If you offer temporary help to people who are literally moving out of poverty, in a few years they don't need your help any more. If you deconstruct the family, provide bad schooling and other things, you keep generations of people in a cycle of poverty. You offer them a little "help" while keeping them down and the more you keep people down, the more they think they need your "help." It is really a diabolical system.
I was thinking too, that Katrina may have sobered people up a bit.
Congratulations Louisiana. And thank you for dumping that corrupt Jefferson.
George Wallace made the same observations about people moving to urban areas without the preparation for life in urban areas.
PALIN/JINDAL 2012
MA will lose a congressional seat after the 2010 Census, dropping to 9 CDs. I think that one could draw 3 or 4 of those 9 CDs to be competitive for the GOP (with President Bush getting between 46%-50% in 2004), although you are correct that one couldn’t draw any districts in which the GOP would be strongly favored.
Well that stinks, sounds like aside from a pointless vote for a GOP Speaker he’d be the same as Studds.
Kieth definitely should have stayed and fought. I’m sure your old Almanacs of American politics will show that district voting for Nixon even as the rest of the state was full tilt moonbat at that time for some reason. Only Carter in ‘76 appeared to win that area of the state until Clinton.
Gizzi tends to label certain Republicans as more conservative than they are. Keith was according the ACU a not as Conservative as Pete’s Torkildsen and Blute. But he was the only halfway decent one ‘side’s them.
Paul Cronin or his predecessor Bradford Morse? Nope? Heckler? Liberal. Conte? Super liberal. I browsed the all the ACU scores for them.
67% in 1981 was his only ACU score over 30. Heckler got the same score in 81 her only one over 50. Lots of votes related to the tax cut. They must have been for it. Some MA Dems did a little better than both sometimes.
Really puts Weld’s f.ing up a chance at a GOP comeback in MA in perspective. Offing an echo of the democrats in MA has failed in undeniably spectacular fashion.
Weld did one good thing by seeing to it they drew a couple at the time winnable seats.
3 huh? 46-50% for Bush? I wouldn’t think that was possible.
I’d guess the seats would be in the South Shore (Studds/Delahunt), Boston burbs including the part of the seat where Torkildsen lost in ‘96. And I guess a seat that takes parts of the current 5th, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st districts. That one would be a beauty.
Of course with rats in charge they’ll probably make nice and sure all 9 are nice and rat. Especially The south shore seat.
Cali’s gonna drop a seat for the first time.
I think failed liberal governance is causing some residents to flee to other western states. And vote rat their of course.
If you carve out Provincetown, Truro and Wellfleet (which you could connect by sea to Nantucket and Martha’s and from there to other Democrat turf) from Barnstable County and Brockton and Hull from Plymouth County, the rest of Barnstable and Plymouth yields close to a full congressional district that gave President Bush like 47% in 2004. Connecting Springfield, Northampton and Amherst to the Berkshires (and to Fitchburg and Gardner in northern Worcester County) to create an overwhelmingly Dem CD, and connecting the city of Worcester to Dem parts of Middlesex County to create another Dem CD, leaves enough GOP and marginal towns for a competitive CD along the CT border and in the western Worcester suburbs. Central Essex County and northern Middlesex County could also form a competitive CD for the GOP. Thinking it over, trying to get a fourth competitive CD out of MA would be more difficult due to the Boston suburbs voting so heavily Democrat nowadays, and I wouldn’t try it lest it makes the CD along the CT border too Democrat.
Of course, MA Democrats will have full control over redistricting (unless the GOP can win back the governorship in 2010, and even then the Democrats will have veto-proof majorities in the state leg), so don’t expect any competitive congressional districts for 2012.
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