Posted on 12/07/2008 2:51:46 AM PST by flattorney
In a shocker, there will be a GOP Rep. in New Orleans. In a surprising twist, GOPers won a sweep in LA tonight in two general elections, picking up embattled Rep. Bill Jefferson's (D-LA 02) seat in New Orleans, and holding retiring Rep. Jim McCrery's (R) seat in the Shreveport-based Fourth District. But the surprise of the night, and possibly the cycle, was in the Big Easy. Atty Ahn “Joseph” Cao (R) defeated Jefferson 50-47%. Dems outnumber GOPers here 6-1, and African Americans make up 61% of the vote. But the NRCC must've had an inkling that something was up here, as they dumped about $60K into the CD earlier this week. They attacked Jefferson in automated phone calls for the bribery and corruption charges he faces in an upcoming trial. Dems cried foul, but apparently the message hit home.
While Cao was earning the support of GOPers nationally and in LA -- he was backed by popular Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) -- Jefferson saw no such support from Dems. Indeed, unlike in the GA SEN runoff and in LA-04, Pres-elect Obama stayed out of the contest altogether. The DCCC didn't contribute any funds here, either. This race was all about Jefferson's ethics problems, and Cao ran a very effective campaign to take advantage of the Dem's weaknesses. While the odds are stacked against Cao holding this seat past the '10 cycle, this win has got to be a shot in the arm for GOPers looking for a morale boost after two disastrous cycles.
In the other LA race that was supposed to be the marquee matchup tonight, physician/Subway restaurant owner John Fleming(R) leads Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche(D) by 356 votes, will all the precincts reporting. The AP has yet to call the race, and may wait until provisional ballots are counted to declare a winner. Dems had hoped that Carmouche's social conservatism, along with the law-and-order credentials gained as DA, would carry him to victory here. But while Carmouche performed better than most Dems -- he carried six of the CD's counties, while Obama carried just one -- it still was not enough to overcome the huge GOP leanings of this CD. On 11/4, John McCain carried it by over 60%.
The race featured two very high-profile surrogates that potentially could match up in '12 WH race. Obama recorded a radio ad for Carmouche, and claimed that, "To change America and to get Louisiana's economy back on track - I need leaders like Paul Carmouche working with me in Washington." Obama's camp also sent out a call for volunteers and a fundraising e-mail to their LA list. Meanwhile, popular LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) endorsed Fleming, which Fleming touted in a TV ad during the campaign's final days. In spending nearly $1.2 million, the DCCC drubbed Fleming on a familiar topic -- his support for a 23% nat'l sales tax, or the "Fair" tax. Dems have been successful in ID, PA and VA in using the issue to turn the tables on the GOP, who usually own the tax issue. The NRCC, which dumped over $970K into the CD, hit Carmouche for his tenure as Caddo Parish DA. In one TV ad, the committee hit Carmouche for not prosecuting a criminal, who was arrested 53 times, under the state's repeat offender law. After his release, the criminal committed 20 more crimes in the span of the next three weeks.
But despite the efforts of Carmouche and Dems to portray Fleming as out-of-step with even GOPers, he was still apparently able to hold on, albeit by the slightest of margins. With these results, Dems have gained a net of 19 seats this cycle. They could potentially pick up two more in VA-05 and OH-15, although votes are still being tallied in both contests. Tonight's GOP wins are big for a party that has been demoralized by two difficult cycles. We'll see in the coming months if tonight's results represent a true shift towards the GOP heading into the '10 midterms, or whether they were just a blip on the road to another successful cycle for Dems.
LA U.S. House Election Results: In major upsets, Republicans win both Districts 2 & 4
“FlAttorney’s FR “Straight Talk” The "New GOP"
Please advise-post who manages the FR Louisiana Ping List. With superstar Gov. Jindal, among other matters, it should be an active list the next two years.
TAB
SHREVEPORT, LA (KSLA) - Minden Physician and Businessman John Fleming got just 356 votes more than Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche during Saturday night's election to determine who will be the next representative for Louisiana's 4th Congressional District. However, after all 640 precincts were counted, Carmouche said he planned to ask for a recount of the ballots.
In complete but unofficial results, Fleming received 44,497 votes (48.07%) and Carmouche received 41,141 vote (47.69%). Independent Candidate Chester T. Kelley got 3,245 votes (3.51%) and Independent Candidate Gerard Bowen, Jr. got 675 votes (.73%). These are complete but unofficial results from the Louisiana Secretary of State's office.
In all, there were 92,558 early and machine votes cast in the election. Provisional ballots had not been counted and are not a part of the total. Carmouche cited the uncounted provisional ballots as one reason he would not concede the race once the results had been announced. "For me to concede at this point would be foolish. We've spent a lot of money, a lot of effort, a lot of time in this race, and there are provisional ballots that we don't believe have been counted yet because they don't usually count those (immediately after a race). Democrats usually win those by large margins so the fat lady hasn't sung yet in this thing," he said.
Jacques Berry, a spokesman for the Secretary of State's Office, said the complete but unofficial returns do not include provisional ballots - paper ballots filled out by people who arrived at their precincts, intending to vote, but whose names did not appear on the official registry. Those votes and absentee paper ballots would be included on Tuesday, when all vote totals are added together again and certified.
Louisiana law has no provision for an automatic recount, Berry said, though a losing candidate can request one. However Fleming sounded confident about his win after learning of Carmouche's intent to ask for a recount. "The way this election works is that the person with the most votes wins and the people have spoken," he said. Afterward he talked about his plan to focus on the economy when he gets to Washington. He says his background in both medicine and business gives him a unique perspective as a congressman. "(We should) not allow the Bush tax cuts to expire. They need to stay in place. We also need to look into cutting taxes further to stimulate business," he said.
TAB
They are provisional because there was something wrong with them. The person attempting to vote was not registered in that precinct or else not registered legally anywhere.
That is the simple explanantion of why the libs win the provisional ballot count.
Fleming won, but it was a weaker showing than expected, considering McCrery always won by huge margins, and Jindal endorsed him. He’s lucky the runoff wasn’t the same day as the presidential election, when black turnout would have been a lot higher.
Carmouche was a well-known and popular local District Attorney. Been around for years. And the national Dems poured tons of money into the race.
The outcome was always in doubt.
I, as everyone else did, expected Jefferson to win overwhemingly no matter how blatant his corruption is, just as Gary Studds was caught butt raping 17 year olds and won by even HIGHER margins. If you had told me yesterday that Cao would get over 20%, I would have laughed in your face and bet you $100 there's no way.
In many ways this is a reverse of my panic on election night, where I felt sick to my stomach seeing a radical Chicago machine candidate with zero credentials winning over states like Virginia and Indiana that hadn't gone RAT since LBJ's 1964 landslide.
I agree this appears to be a fluke in much the same way Dan Rostencowski was ousted in 1994 by one-term Michael Patrick Flannigan due to Rosty's being on trial for corruption (becoming the first, and thus far only, Republican elected to represent a majority city of Chicago district since the early 60s) -- but bear in mind THAT was during the GOP high water of 1994. THIS victory came in the aftermath of the Obamanation. THIS really did make history, far more than a guy with half-black ancestry winning the Presidency did. Let us get behind Cao immediately and make sure he doesn't end up like Flannigan, because the Dems will do everything they can to take back this seat in 2010, and the demographics are overwhemingly in their favor. I am very proud that our nation's first Vietnamese-american Congressman is a Republican. If we can showcase Cao to the world, he and Bobby Jindal can lead us back to victory and become the NEW face of the Republican Party, especially everytime the media tries to portray all those mean nasty GOP voters in the deep south as evil bigots and racists.
The local papers have been rubbing it our face with nonstop "commerative" issues of Dear Leader since Nov. 5, 2008. The Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times greeting me the next morning with a smiling photo of The One and the caption "Mr. President", which made me lose my lunch. Now, it's time to shove this in the face of the mainstream media NONSTOP:
We have a large Vietnamese community here. They don’t feel sorry for themselves, they don’t whine, they don’t demand the world bow down to them, they excel at all they do.
I respect them. They are good, solid conservative folks. About half the community is Buddhist and the rest are Catholic.
With the history of this segment of our population so fresh, it is a lesson to other longtime minorities to get with the program; assimilate, work within the system to succeed.
Congratulations Congressman Cao!
I hope he does a good job.
Welcome to FRee Republic!
Me too! Jindal rocks. I have followed him for years, long before he achieve national attention. The man is brilliant.
I hope Cao is of the Jindal school.
I hope so too! It will be interesting to follow.
I hadn’t seen that chart before. Thanks for posting it. I have to give Karl Rove credit since he pretty much nailed the election results much more than the usual pollsters.
Congrats to LA.After all they have been thru, they need a break.
His name is not Ahn anything! It is ANH- Joseph ANH Cao.
According to WWL he has degrees in philosophy, physics and law. It’s definitely a step up from the crook.
http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/stories/wwl120608mljefferson.398b9b60.html
Cao seemed largely caught off guard with the win.
“I’m speechless right now,” he said before thanking a litany of people who he said contributed to his victory. “I came over here when I was eight years old, I had absolutely nothing. I didn’t speak any English. The American dream is alive and well.”
...
Though he was the underdog, Cao received endorsements from some Democrat and green-conscious groups as well as the area’s Vietnamese-American community. Cao came to the United States as a child after the fall of Saigon in 1975 and went on to earn degrees in philosophy, physics and law.
Thank God.
This gives all of us Vietnam Veterans a good feeling to see a Vietnamese succeed in the political arena. Way to go “Joe”.
Leave it to Louisiana to pull the GOP out of the fire. Having lived there several years, and worked for a Republican Congressman elected in an 85% Democrat district, I can tell you that this is the poster boy state for the GOP. Although these elections do seem astonishing, I am not surprised with the outcome.
Please note that pandering isn't necessary to win elections.
Unbelievable. The district has standards of conduct.
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