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Carmouche, Fleming in close race for 4th Congressional District seat
KTBS Channel 3 ^ | December 6, 2008

Posted on 12/06/2008 7:29:16 PM PST by Clintonfatigued

Democrats took aim at a reliably Republican congressional seat Saturday night as Paul Carmouche narrowly led Republican John Fleming in the hotly contested 4th Congressional District race.

With 63 percent of precincts reporting, Carmouche had 50 percent of the vote to 47 percent for Fleming.

Two independent candidates had the rest of the vote.

The winner succeeds Republican Congressman Jim McCrery, who decided not to seek re-election after 20 years in the House of Representatives.

Carmouche is retiring after being district attorney in Caddo Parish for 30 years. Fleming is a Minden physician and businessman.

(Excerpt) Read more at ktbs.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: 2008; fleming; la2008
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To: Theodore R.

Nice for the La GOP to win a close House election. In 2002, the La-05 was lost by a few hundred votes. In 2004, Billy Tauzin III lost by a few hundred. Now we win one by a few hundred.


41 posted on 12/06/2008 8:08:58 PM PST by yongin (Converting people to Mormonism makes the world more conservative)
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To: philsfan24

Will the media begin reporting the beginning of the Obacklash? Looks like this is 3 straight wins for the GOP since The One was coronated.

And if Jefferson loses? That would be justice.


42 posted on 12/06/2008 8:08:58 PM PST by jeltz25
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To: TribalPrincess2U

The worst precincts might be the last to report in NOLA. Fingers crossed.


43 posted on 12/06/2008 8:09:38 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: jeltz25

jefferson losing would be HUGE. would be one of the biggest upsets in a long long time. media wont report it but it would be big. that being said, a long way to go before he goes down.


44 posted on 12/06/2008 8:11:00 PM PST by philsfan24
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To: philsfan24

Jefferson needs to go down...big.


45 posted on 12/06/2008 8:11:28 PM PST by My Favorite Headache (Forget the 3AM phone call. Obama can not even answer the phone at 3PM.)
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To: philsfan24
388 / 492 = 78% of the precincts reported

It's almost all black precincts left to come in.

If almost 53000 people have voted * .22 (precincts still to come) = 11,660 more votes to come

Cao holds a 5,179 lead

There will have to be dismal turnout from those areas for Cao to win. Hope I'm wrong.

46 posted on 12/06/2008 8:13:35 PM PST by SeafoodGumbo
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To: Theodore R.

We all jinxed the rat by declaring him the victor.

It’s Just 1 little race but it feels nice to elect a conservative GOPer over a fauxcon rat.

Just the same if I ever go to Shreveport, Louisiana (not likely but you never know) I’m steering clear of that Catfish restaurant.


47 posted on 12/06/2008 8:13:37 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: My Favorite Headache

Returns are coming in so slowly..Orleams is heavily Black, and quite loyal to the refrigerator man.


48 posted on 12/06/2008 8:13:42 PM PST by Nonstatist
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To: philsfan24

Certainly the first time that many conservatives and republicans are rooting for the Vietnamese, that’s for sure.

In a way, ironic that the vietnam vet McCain loses but one of the guys whose freedom he fought for might take down one of the bigger dem crooks in the house.

Although, McCain/Palin did win LA by a bigger margin than Bush did in 2000 or 2004.


49 posted on 12/06/2008 8:16:08 PM PST by jeltz25
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To: Impy
The worst precincts might be the last to report in NOLA. Fingers crossed.

They are. New Orleans East and 9th Ward are what's mostly left -- black areas. I don't want to say it's over, but...

50 posted on 12/06/2008 8:16:28 PM PST by SeafoodGumbo
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To: yongin

Yup.

Those previous 2 made me curse the pelican state


51 posted on 12/06/2008 8:18:43 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: SeafoodGumbo

apparently AP and CNN have called it for Cao


52 posted on 12/06/2008 8:19:19 PM PST by jeltz25
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To: SeafoodGumbo

The DUummies are saying the AP is calling it for Cao.


53 posted on 12/06/2008 8:20:04 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: SeafoodGumbo

“New Orleans East and 9th Ward are what’s mostly left “

if thats the case than its over - jefferson will win.


54 posted on 12/06/2008 8:20:52 PM PST by philsfan24
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To: Impy
I sure hope I'm wrong. I realized I did the math a little off in that post and it should be ~15,000 votes left. Look at this map and the precincts still to report. It's mostly in the 9th ward - look for 9xx on the right side of the map.

Hope I'm wrong.

55 posted on 12/06/2008 8:25:22 PM PST by SeafoodGumbo
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To: jeltz25
apparently AP and CNN have called it for Cao

They're projecting him as the winner. Is that the same as calling it? I don't know.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapHLA/H/02

56 posted on 12/06/2008 8:28:14 PM PST by SeafoodGumbo
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To: SeafoodGumbo

Maybe there’s so few people in those precincts that Cao will win. That must be what it is. I saw tons of uncounted precincts, but those precincts won’t have that many people. I think I was making a mistake in equating 22% of precincts remaining with 22% of the vote remaining. They probably haven’t redrawn the precincts post-storm, so some of those are lightly populated!!!!


57 posted on 12/06/2008 8:31:37 PM PST by SeafoodGumbo
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To: philsfan24

we all know how the media gleefully reported each GOP loss in a special election. I wonder if they’ll do the same now. He hasn’t even been inaugurated yet and the dems have lost 3 staright election. Albeit in 2 states McCain won by 20+ in LA and by 5+ in GA, but still, you know if this was reversed, they’d be breaking in to report the dem victories.


58 posted on 12/06/2008 8:34:02 PM PST by jeltz25
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To: SeafoodGumbo
Nola.com is reporting Cao wins!!!

I've never been so happy to be wrong. I was stupidly thinking that the precincts left would bring many votes, but the precinct maps were never re-drawn in the East and 9th ward, I guess.

Sorry for scaring everyone!

59 posted on 12/06/2008 8:34:02 PM PST by SeafoodGumbo
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To: SeafoodGumbo

To give everyone an idea on how amazing of a win this is, the LA 2nd district has been considered one of the most reliably Dem seats in the entire country. It’s got a weird gerrymandered shape and is designed to be a black district. For a Vietnamese Republican to win is pretty cool. According to the wiki, “No Republican has represented this district since Reconstruction.”


60 posted on 12/06/2008 8:37:54 PM PST by SeafoodGumbo
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