Posted on 11/22/2008 4:01:21 PM PST by dano1
I AM endlessly charmed by chatter about when this slowdown/recession will end. (snip)
But this does not look like a typical recession. A typical recession is brought on by Federal Reserve tightening in the face of excessive demand and rising prices. The economy still functions normally, but purposeful credit tightening slows activity. When the Fed loosens up and money starts flowing, demand increases and growth returns. This, at least, is the pattern of the large recessions we have had since the Great Depression, which was a special case, as we shall see.
Smaller recessions have been brought on simply by the inventory-business cycle, but they, too, were amenable to Fed stimulus.
That was because normal credit mechanisms were working.
This time it’s different. Or, because that is a dangerous phrase, let me say that maybe this time it’s different.
The problem now, as in 1929 to 1940, is that the economy is not functioning normally. It is shot through and through with fear, even terror. Worse yet, and unlike the situation in the Depression, government miscues have been only a part of the problem. This fear is so pervasive that it has brought the credit sector to a virtual shutdown, even to borrowers with good credit. At this point, the lending sector is so panicked —largely from the government’s inconsistent behavior and failure to rescue Lehman Brothers — that it is frozen. Not totally, but way too much for ease of lending and maybe even for the survival of a robust economy. And if a colossal worldwide deleveraging spreads to Treasury debt owned by foreigners, the situation will be deadly serious.
The unemployment rate is rising. Housing is in collapse. Manufacturing is weak. The unionized auto sector is dying before our eyes. Commodities are falling hard and fast.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
You’re welcome.
Now if we could only get our congresscritters to listen.
“You’re welcome. Now if we could only get our congresscritters to listen.”
Or care enough to make some unpopular calls?
Please include me in on that recommendation!
Yeah, especially when the non-linear part looks like Niagara Falls.
You bet. Argentina here we come, on the way to Zimbabwe.
But first we’ll have months to maybe years of deflation.
Post #159.
I have a big paperback (VERY BIG) version of The Great Reckoning on my bookshelf, very much underlined and highlighted. I pull it down very often. He was 20 years ahead on his “reckoning” of the timeline, he missed a few bubbles, but it’s all coming into focus now. Great book.
The only problem with Davidson is the opacity of his prose. I had to read a paragraph 3 or 4 times to distill all the juice from it.
That exactly how I feel
If I woke up tomorrow and found out I couldn't get any money from by bank accounts and Fidelity accounts I wouldn't be surprised. Extremely upset, yes. But not surprised
TBills and gold are the sanest investments today. Also cold hard cash in a safe deposit box
Martin Weiss says TBills is the way to go
Not gold
Cheap stuff from Asia and China kept inflation at bay for 15+ years. Importing oil too. We ran up a huge external debt
This book changed my thinking on quite a few subjects including geo-political strategy
BTW they lay out the case for a deflationary depression instead of an inflationary one or hyperinflation
In my opinion it’s a very uneven work, but the gems really shine.
I don’t agree with a lot of his conclusions, but his waypoints on the road to perdition are priceless.
Ben Stein wrote, "In this situation, where fear rules, we must turn to the federal government for relief."
Whoa! Hold the Horses!
A large part of our economic woes came about due to consumers making purchases of non-durable goods and services on credit. These goods and services included groceries, restaurant meals, vacations, salon services, clothing, cosmetics, housewares, or party supplies. Alarms should sound when consumers use credit to cover the cost of essentials, such as groceries and utility expenses. There was a time when credit was offered only on durable goods. These are generally considered goods that yields services or utility over time rather than being completely used up when used once. Vehicles, major appliances, home improvements are within this area.
Ben Stein also wrote, "A truly serious stimulus package is very much in order. It has to be big enough and last long enough that Americans do not just sock it away under the mattress."
A truly serious stimulus package can be undertaken by the private sector without any government assistance. Government should not be expected to fix everything.
CASH IS KING!
Every business that accepts credit cards pays a portion of each such transaction to the credit card company, or the company funding the credit transaction. Every retailer and service company can so themselves a favor and motivate the consumers to not hoard their money under the mattress if they would offer discounts to customers that pay with cash. This does not include debit card purchases as an increasing percentage of such transactions cost the businesses, which in-turn pass the cost along to all their customers.
As consumers we can nudge businesses back toward the cash model. We can ask what their discount is for purchases made in cash. Even large purchases of durable goods, including vehicle purchases, can be made with cash. Go to a dealership, haggle for the best price, but when they jump into financing the vehicle, make a firm offer of payment in cash that is up to 10% less than the figure they were going to try to finance. If they refuse, leave your name, phone number, and leave the dealership with a parting message that you will continue searching for a dealership that wants to make a sale in addition to saving themselves and you money.
Long-term economic stability can only be assured by limiting the impulsive use of credit and returning to a cash driven economy for non-durable goods and services.
A spell-binding orator promising hope and change.
And I'm sure you know how that worked out.
Then why don't you enlighten us on Keynes?
Obviously you don’t remember the 13% inflation.
Ben Stein wrote this piece
Ben Stein is always confident and sunny about America and our economy
Yet this piece ranks up there with the best gloom and doomers. I’ll bet Stein lost big money on some stocks and started talking to the right people and got shocked into reality
There’s a great You Tube video of Peter Schiff taking on the Ben Stein and others on TV a few years ago. Schiffs predictions were dead on
Not quite, though there were indeed Japanese militarists of the *Big Six* who hoped that the atom bombing of Japan's cities would inspire massive waves of suicide attacks that would increase US casualties to unacceptable levels. After FDR died, US casualties in the Pacific were running around 1000 per day. They were gambling that the number of US *superbombs* was limited, with one more *Fat Man* type plutonium device of the type that destroyed Nagasaki available for US use in August, and four or five more in September. By the end of the year, it was expected that circa 20 would have been made available for U.S. tactical, as well as strategic bombing purposes.
If you haven't read the book The Last Mission: The Secret History of World War II's Final Battle, you really ought to.
http://home.netcom.com/~jb29miss/index.html
There may well be a condensed version available- ask at your local library- or maybe a Classics Illustrated comic book, for all I know. But at least once in your life, you ought to give the multivolume tome a try.
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