Lies In The Wind

This past election season every politician on both sides of the isle had them in their commercials. Every oil, gas, or major energy company advertises with them in their publications, brochures, and public announcements. They are the answer to our energy problem, the solution to the global climate crisis. I am speaking of wind turbines; the massive structures being erected at break neck speeds across the Midwest and coastal regions.

As an electrical engineer working for a power generation company, I have been naturally curious as to the actual application of this technology, its cost, performance abilities, and overall impact on the industry. Simply put, we are constructing them, how are we going to use them? The answers I have found are not only startling, but down right disturbing when put in the context of consumers being sold something they are not being told the truth about. The following is a 2 part series of reasons wind power is not the answer to our problems, and the corresponding half truths and bold lies being sold to the public on the issue.

Wind turbines today are being manufactured to provide much more power than those of even 5 years ago. It is not uncommon to hear about 2 megawatt machines being put into service in farm sizes that may be thousands of megawatts. So the average person can look at a 4,000 MW (megawatt) wind farm and comfortably believe this will eliminate the need for say 4 power coal fired power plants of 1,000 MW each, correct? Well, not so fast. First we must understand what this 4,000 MW number means. When wind farms are installed they advertise their size on a total “Max Capacity” number. Meaning this is the amount of power they will generate if the wind is blowing at exactly the right speed, in the right direction, 100% of the time. Studies have shown however that average onshore wind farms will produce about 22% of their max capacity annually. Suddenly we are down to 880 MW. Well, you think, we can still get rid of almost one small coal fired power plant. Wrong again. To explain this we must realize the difference between “base load” and “peaking” power generation. Base load power is the “cheap” power that the majority of your electricity comes from, and the power plant generating it is generally running at close to full output the entire time. (ie. coal, nuclear) Peaking generation plants are called into service only during times when electrical demand is higher than normal. Typically times like afternoons in the summer when everyone’s AC is running the hardest. Most peaking plants are natural gas fired because of their ability to ramp up and down quickly. Keep in mind this is also much more expensive generation than your cheap base load facilities, primarily because of the price of natural gas.

So where does the wind fit in? Due to the nature of the wind itself, it generates rapid ups and downs as far as electrical outputs, sometimes hundreds of times per month. It is because of this characteristic that wind power could NEVER be a substitute for base load power. From an engineering standpoint, these ups and downs must be backed by quick start gas turbines in order to balance the frequency swings on the electrical grid. Simply put, if the wind falls off, and the power is not replaced from somewhere else almost immediately you will experience either a “brown out” or a “black out” if the loss is large enough. Since base load power plants cannot ramp up and down nearly fast enough to match the erratic output of the wind farms, power companies end up running natural gas turbines in a fashion that would compare to you driving your car by going 0-100 as fast as possible, slamming on the brakes, and then repeating. This creates inefficient power, tears up machines (which costs money), and also ……creates CO2 emissions. Aside from having to balance wind with “quick start” peaking power, engineers really have no idea how to accomplish even this if the wind power on the grid is more than just a few percent of the total grid capacity. Earlier this year, Texas had a massive power outage because the wind fell off one day, and they did not have enough “quick start” replacement power to inject into the grid. So best case scenario you will be running gas turbines like a teenager who just swiped the keys to dad’s Corvette, and worst case… your lights will go off. In conclusion, not one pound less coal will be burned because of the wind, and more CO2 will be created to chase it.

Power companies across the country are installing wind turbines at record speeds simply because they are being forced to by laws requiring certain amounts of “renewable energy” by a certain date. Thus they are also building a lot of natural gas fired “peaking” plants.

Knowing T. Boone Pickens didn’t become a billionaire because he was stupid, I couldn’t figure out what he was thinking when he starting pitching his wind/natural gas energy solution. The more I learn about wind generation, the more I’m convinced he’s a financial genius. He’s going to make another billion drilling for and selling natural gas.

In my investigation into the true cost of wind power I started at the residential level. As a staunch advocate of the free market, I was a bit skeptical of the true feasibility of wind power since if we could all install wind turbines, spin our electric meters backwards, and pay back our initial investments after just a few years, wouldn’t we all have one?

After realizing that installation is typically twice as expensive as advertised, and that the “payback” assumes the machine will last for 20 years or more virtually maintenance free, I started to see the catch. These machines are money pits. They break and cost a lot of money to fix unless you happen to be one of the few who owns your own crane.

The situation with commercial wind turbines is not much different with a few additional complications. First of all, they start with an inherent advantage because they are heavily subsidized through federal and state governments. In the northern plains subsidized wind energy costs about 5 cents a kwh to produce. Compare this to the fact that electricity in the same area can be made for 2.5 cents per kwh with coal. So WITH tax incentives and subsidies from the government, wind is already way behind. Adding to the problem is the fact that in order to comply with new standard and renewable energy quotas, power companies have to take the wind power whenever it is available. Study after study has shown that the wind is generally more stable and produces best at night, and other “off-peak” hours when electricity is not worth as much because demand is low. So to make a long story short, power companies are being forced to buy wind power at 5 cents per kwh and sell it at night for 1.5 cents per kwh(or whatever their off peak rate is). They are losing money on the wind. This also does not take into account the capital cost for construction of gas fired peaking plants, their operation, and maintenance costs. The bottom line is that the more wind turbines you see your local utility erecting, the higher your electric bills are going to be. When you see the term “power cost adjustment” on your bill, a major culprit is blowing in the wind.

To risk sounding like a pessimist I must mention that wind proponents do have a solution to fix the cost problem. The answer that is being proposed is a tax on coal. Cap and trade, CO2 emissions restrictions, carbon sequestration laws, etc… These are all phrases that mean coal is about to be taxed to the point, where it is no longer the cheapest solution available. As an engineer this troubles me. We aught to be striving to fix these problems of feasibility and cost, not tax the other guy to the point that suddenly wind becomes competitive.

The biggest problem with the renewable, “green power” industry today is its blatant dishonesty to the public. If a select few want to pay more for a less reliable source of power that would be one thing. However, it is being sold to the masses as a complete and better solution, when that is simply not true. Let’s tell the truth and make it better, after all this country is the world’s birthplace of new ideas and innovation. Leave the lies out of it.

Kansas
Dust In The Wind lyrics

I close my eyes, only for a moment, and the moment’s gone
All my dreams, pass before my eyes, a curiosity
Dust in the wind, all they are is dust in the wind

Same old song, just a drop of water in an endless sea
All we do, crumbles to the ground though we refuse to see
Dust in the wind, all we are is dust in the wind.
Oh________________

Don’t hang on, nothing lasts forever but the earth and sky
It slips away, all your money won’t another minute buy

Dust in the wind, all we are is dust in the wind
Dust in the wind, all we are is dust in the wind
Dust in the wind, everything is dust in the wind (everything is dust in the wind)

This is pretty much how I see it and explain it to non-tech friends. People aren’t convinced that costs=energy. That is a system costs more to build and maintain then it probably is consuming more energy than most think.
A lot of the studies on the cost of Wind power don’t include the additional distribution costs and losses, nor the true life cycle costs of the turbines. The blades are made mostly of petroleum..how long do they last? They consume power just to stand still.
The utilities just want to comply with the laws and get things in their rates and pass the costs along.

Thanks for taking the time to write this.

All too often the American public is sold a bill of goods and then regrets the purchase later.

Alternative energy sources all have their own problems and until we deal with those problems using sound economic principles, the money spent will be wasted.

Given the rocky economic times we find ourselves, wasting resources is not a good idea for our future financial health.

I am hopeful some entrepenurial folks would begin tackling the major issues you have presented and start to think outside the envelope for solutions that are economic solutions and not government subsidized solutions.

It seems we have become a society that wants to first look to government for a handout instead of using our God-given creative powers to find economic solutions to problems.

You expect politicians in California to tell you the truth? All they are interested in is getting elected. They really don’t care what happens. The only way I see out of this is for a small home electric generation system. Like small generators that are extremely efficient.

I understand the Germans and Danes, who were pioneers in windmill generating technology, have stopped building wind turbines for these very reasons. Wind turbines like corn ethanol plants are just feel good boondoggles that waste money and do not solve our energy needs. I fully expect that under President Obama we will be dealing with frequent brownouts and blackouts as well as skyrocketing electricity costs.

.......They break and cost a lot of money to fix .....

Thanks for this comprehensive piece.

In May 2007 I traveled north from Colorado into Wyoming thence west in to Idaho and onward to Oregon. Early on I ran into large wind farms of 25 or more wind mills. I counted them just to get a feel.

I noticed from the outset there were always some not working. I began to count them as well. In Idaho,on the Snake river plain, I got off the hiway and actually drove several miles to the farm and got a close up look of both working and non working units.

The bottom line is that averaged over numerous sites spread across hundreds of miles, about 10% of the units in each farm were inoperative. It seems to me that in addition to the numbers mentioned above for each unit, you can subtract an additional 10% or so from the aggregate farm number for inoperatve units.

The green idea isn't about the cheapest soution, it's about reducing amounts of gaseus garbage being dumped into the atmosphere (mainly CO2).

The wind-generated electricity can be used to extract the CO2 from the air and make out of it some useful chemical substances (like trees do). In this cases the AC use peaks aren't important.

Just treat this process like usual garbage collection routinely performed in every community. In this case a similar financing of the process is rational. Now no-one is dumping steel shaving across the fence of a factory, why treat CO2 differently?.

And everyone thought the Marxist Dimocrats were not going to lie? Everything and everyone on the left lives and exists on a mountain of lies. They would not know the truth if you wrote the word TRUTH on a baseball bat and smacked them across the forehead with it. Everyone on the green side lies. Everyone on the socialist side lies. This bunch coming into Washington in January has its entire existence based upon lies, deceit and BS. Obama could be standing on the stage and showing us live moving pictures and I still would not believe it. I would be expecting it was all Wag The Dog type crap. I don’t believe them. I don’t trust them with my LIFE, My Country, or My Money!!! I do not like them. I will never like them. Simply, too this old soldier, THEY ARE THE ENEMY WITHIN. WE have been invaded within. And folks, thanks to our inept leadership on this side, we are losing. It is a guerrilla war now.

Yours was a religious statement based on faith and not science or economics.

In Islam, the belief is women must cover their heads and maybe their faces.

In Green, we must eliminate CO2

Both are irrationsl

Very good summation of the problems and waste the AWG insanity is causing on the generation side. I'd also suggest you review this latest NERC report on the North American bulk power system. Reliability Impacts of Climate Change Initiatives

If Obama try even half of the hair brained stuff he promised in the campaign, the grid is going down.

10% of the units in each farm were inoperative.

The subsidies are for building them. Maintaining them is a cost that is not subsidized. If one quits and it is going to be expensive to fix, they just build another because it is subsidized.

Another reason they don't all run at the same time is there is not sufficient capacity in the power line that takes the power away.

In the Evanston Wyoming area, only about 25% are running at one time. They are a different 25% at different times, but that shows it is not because of mechanical failure.

It would take a fairly major power line to take 4 megawatts, and the power line that is there is not that big, nor is the substation that takes the power and connects it to the line.

....nly about 25% are running at one time.....

That is even worse and means they have negative capital efficiency. If they can’t run they can’t amortize the capitalization and the project has negative return.

When you confront liberals and leftists with facts you only enrage them.

The 'renewable' energy myth is nothing more than snake oil. People have been fed so many lies on this subject, they will believe anything except the truth.

0bama will solve all our problems. Get with the program.

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

As Table 1 shows, renewable energy technologies account for 6 percent of U.S. primary energy consumption.

What is surprising about the relatively small role that renewable energies play in our energy economy is the large measure of taxpayer dollars that they have received. Since 1970, renewable technologies have received over $20 billion in federal government subsidies to spur their development and market application.[33] Despite this largesse, they have been unable to compete economically with far cheaper and more reliable options such as coal and nuclear power. Of all renewable technologies, wind and solar receive the most attention from the public, despite their fairly dismal performance. Taken together, wind and solar today account for just one-fifth of 1 percent of America’s annual energy consumption.

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Another cost that needs to be factored in is the “leasing” cost. I hear that each mill is bringing around $1,000 per year plus “royalties”! In west Texas I’ve heard that farmers are supplementing their income with mill farms. Driving through this summer it was interesting seeing the number of farms that have popped up in TWO years! Also, it was interesting to see miles of empty fields with windmills and oil pumps...and wondering if the poor farmers were also getting USDA farm subsidies.

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