Posted on 11/03/2008 2:38:29 PM PST by Repeal The 17th
Early Voting Statistics as of 11/03/08 Number of ballots voted in person: 1,778,317 Number of mail-in ballots returned: 242,522 Total Number of ballots cast: 2,020,839
Turn out Demographics: Black Female 442,843 Black Male 262,360 White Female 677,667 White Male 542,449 Asian Female 6,889 Asia Male 5,128 Hispanic Female 8,625 Hispanic Male 6,289 Native American Female 160 Native American Male 137 Other 68,292 Total 2,020,839
Top 5 Counties in turn out: 1. Dekalb: 178,140 2. Fulton: 168,443 3. Cobb: 144,015 4. Gwinnett: 107,938 5. Henry: 69,064
DeKalb is heavily liberal and much of Fulton is except for the northern tip, and, of course, they are the most populated counties. Cobb, Gwinnett and Henry are conservative. Hopefully, a ton of absentee ballots are received today and tomorrow. I’m a little surprised there aren’t more.
DeKalb is heavily liberal and much of Fulton is except for the northern tip, and, of course, they are the most populated counties. Cobb, Gwinnett and Henry are conservative. Hopefully, a ton of absentee ballots are received today and tomorrow. I’m a little surprised there aren’t more.
US Census Bureau puts them at 30% of the population. This is very high compared to national average. Oh Well, Atlanta is the black Mecca of the south....
Not by much. 29.9% is the US Census estimate for 2006.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/13000.html
On the bright side, I would expect that 35% figure to likely fall tomorrow. I suspect that African Americans that support Obama have already voted in states where early voting is allowed.
In 2004, African Americans represented 25% of Georgia’s turnout, based on exit polling.
As a race African-Americans make up about 12% of the population I think, but they vote as a higher percentage in most elections, especially Presidential. I did not know that they voted at 25% in 2004 but if that holds up then that makes me a little more nervous.
All my vote calculations have figured the African-American turnout at 12-18%.
“Henry already has move votes than all of 2004 in just the early vote.”
I was wondering how the heck Henry Co. was showing up on that list. ACORN?
Cobb is at about 50% their 2004 Turnout. Fulton a little less, Dekuba about 100,000 votes less so fall 2004
and Gwenttie alittle less than 50% of their 2004% names.
Crap forget my previous post. Looking at the wrong figures...
Sorry for the repostings. My 2 year old was at the computer and I think she must have done something!
ACORN is paying my AA employees from Dekalb and Henry to vote. Is that legal?
What the statistics do not mention, and I wonder if this is the case in other states too, is that the “early voting” precincts, up until last Monday (in Fulton and Dekalb anyway) were all located in heavily black areas, such as College Park. It wasn’t very convenient or tempting to make the trip into unfamiliar territory to vote early!
When the Pubbie areas also opened up early voting precincts last week, the lines were sometimes eight hours long (parking lots so full that people were parking on grass, many, many cars w/McPalin stickers on them), haven’t heard of any less than 2.5 hours in the Pubbie areas. I decided to chance waiting to vote in my own precinct tomorrow.
Actually Cobb is heavily GOP. The only Democratic area is S. Cobb which is definetly more of the Obama than "southern Democrat" variety. 4 of the 5 county board members are Republican and two of the three U.S. House delegation is Republican as well. McCain will take Cobb with 55%+. That much I can guarantee.
“they don’t control any county around it.”
ummh, what about Dekalb and Clayton?
Here is a little number crunching:
Georgia’s population is roughly 8.2 million. Black population is 2.35 million or 28.7% of the total, about 35% are children ineligible to vote. That leaves about 1.5 million blacks. About 37% have already voted and probably 35% are ineligible to vote because of criminal records (not racism, just simple facts), of the remaining 30%, I would bet that less than half will vote. We can safely assume that they voted for Obama in overwhelming numbers. So roughly 95% of the 55% of blacks leaves a total of about 800,000 Obama votes. Obama has already seen most of his black support in Georgia.
Now if we assume that 55% of non blacks also vote, we get 3 million other votes for a total of about 4 million votes. I would bet that McCain pulls 65% of this group or about 2 million votes.
The total is McCain 2.4 million, Obama 1.85 million.
Based on these numbers, McCain has handily won Georgia.
In 2004:
691,616 black female RV 527,677 AV 76%
464,090 black male RV, 306,654 AV 66%
1,544,536 white female RV, 1,253,961 AV 81%
1,372,786 white male RV, 1,090,671 AV 79%
So even assuming an 100% black female and black male turnout, and assign every black voter to Obama, Obama can only garner net gain of 410,000 black female and
2008 1,000,000 black female RV (442,843 early voters)
2008 719,000 black male RV (262,360 early voters)
2008 1,908,000 white female RV (677,667 early voters)
2008 1,703,150 white male RV (542,449 early voters)
Bush carried Georgia by 600,000 votes. So even assuming that every black female and every black male will vote (not likely) and every black female and male will vote for Obama (not that wild of an assumption because of black racism) Obama only picks up 427,000 black females, and 250,000 black males.
Bush won the state by 600,000.
Tellingly, in 2004, there were 1,372,000 evil white men voters. Guess what? In 2008, there are 1,703,000. I fancy that quite a few will be pulling the ticket for McCain/Palin.
This is why Obama pulled out of Georgia, and why he will lose in NC.
Hmm....looks right up my alley.
Total black vote: 35% (2004 total: 25%)
Total white vote: 60.4 (2004 total: 70%)
Total hispanic vote: 0.7% (2004 total: 4%)
Total other vote: 3.9% (2004 total: 2%)
How these same five counties voted in 2004:
Dekalb: Kerry 73-26
276,139 votes cast in 2004
Fulton: Kerry 59-40
336,024 votes cast in 2004
Cobb: Bush 62-37
279,473 votes cast in 2004
Gwinnett: Bush 66-33
242,153 votes cast in 2004
Henry: Bush 67-33
64,193 votes cast in 2004
If you assume that these five counties will vote at roughly these percentages in 2008 early voting, here is what I come up with:
Dekalb: Obama 130,042, McCain 48,098
Fulton: Obama 99,381, McCain 69,062
Cobb: Obama 53,285, McCain 90,729
Gwinnett: Obama 35,620, McCain 72,318
Henry: Obama 22,791, McCain 46,273
When you add all these numbers up, I get:
Obama 341,119 51.1%
McCain 326,480 48.9%
To put this in context, Bush won the state by about 550,000 votes (58-41). But here is how Bush and Kerry did against each other in these five counties in 2004:
Kerry 606,982 51.0%
Bush 584,613 49.0%
Even if you assume that Obama is winning the early vote by 60-40 rather than 51-49, this would net him only 112,000 additional votes (give or take) — still far short of the 550,000 he needs to make up Kerry’s deficit from 2004. And these five counties (one or more of which includes Atlanta, where many Georgia black voters live) are far more Democratic than the rest of Georgia.
I would stop worrying about Georgia. McCain will win the state handily.
Just more fuel to my fire that Obama won’t come even CLOSE to the level of dem support received by Gore and Kerry.
For the thousandth time, democrats crossing over in droves or not voting will be Obama’s doom, he can’t win. His ONLY path to victory is a massive republican “stay home” campaign, which has been in full swing for 2 months.
The R base will not stay home and Obama is in for a CRUSHING defeat, just like I said months ago.
Obama will be Greg Stillson after he loses, all the dirt will come out.
Well accordign to suvery usa it 50-48 for Obama in the early vote, but they state the early vote well repsect over 50% of the turn out.
I was born at CWL in Fulton county. I remember the old Atlanta residents number tote board on Peachtree...got up to a million and more and then stagnated...in the 70s population started moving away from Atlanta to the outer counties - they now outnumber Altanta city proper by a good margin. Nowdays, anyone with any sense is moving even farther north or away from that place.... I expect one day that the city of Atlanta will be populated by a constituency of columns and pillars of salt..
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