Hmm....looks right up my alley.
Total black vote: 35% (2004 total: 25%)
Total white vote: 60.4 (2004 total: 70%)
Total hispanic vote: 0.7% (2004 total: 4%)
Total other vote: 3.9% (2004 total: 2%)
How these same five counties voted in 2004:
Dekalb: Kerry 73-26
276,139 votes cast in 2004
Fulton: Kerry 59-40
336,024 votes cast in 2004
Cobb: Bush 62-37
279,473 votes cast in 2004
Gwinnett: Bush 66-33
242,153 votes cast in 2004
Henry: Bush 67-33
64,193 votes cast in 2004
If you assume that these five counties will vote at roughly these percentages in 2008 early voting, here is what I come up with:
Dekalb: Obama 130,042, McCain 48,098
Fulton: Obama 99,381, McCain 69,062
Cobb: Obama 53,285, McCain 90,729
Gwinnett: Obama 35,620, McCain 72,318
Henry: Obama 22,791, McCain 46,273
When you add all these numbers up, I get:
Obama 341,119 51.1%
McCain 326,480 48.9%
To put this in context, Bush won the state by about 550,000 votes (58-41). But here is how Bush and Kerry did against each other in these five counties in 2004:
Kerry 606,982 51.0%
Bush 584,613 49.0%
Even if you assume that Obama is winning the early vote by 60-40 rather than 51-49, this would net him only 112,000 additional votes (give or take) — still far short of the 550,000 he needs to make up Kerry’s deficit from 2004. And these five counties (one or more of which includes Atlanta, where many Georgia black voters live) are far more Democratic than the rest of Georgia.
I would stop worrying about Georgia. McCain will win the state handily.
Just more fuel to my fire that Obama won’t come even CLOSE to the level of dem support received by Gore and Kerry.
For the thousandth time, democrats crossing over in droves or not voting will be Obama’s doom, he can’t win. His ONLY path to victory is a massive republican “stay home” campaign, which has been in full swing for 2 months.
The R base will not stay home and Obama is in for a CRUSHING defeat, just like I said months ago.
Obama will be Greg Stillson after he loses, all the dirt will come out.
Well accordign to suvery usa it 50-48 for Obama in the early vote, but they state the early vote well repsect over 50% of the turn out.
Nicely done. So essentially, in spite of all the talk about Obama doing well in GA, he’s as of this point just breaking even with Kerry’s performance. And Kerry lost by a mere 17 points (58-41). So I think Chambliss will survive. I hope he’s learned a valuable lesson about ticking off his conservative base.