The Road To 270 EV's-Not As Hard As You Would Think For McCain

realclearpolitics ^ | 11-03-08 | research

[icwhatudo]

Its pretty simple. Assuming McCain wins the states he is currently in the lead or tied in according to RCP averages of state polls, then theses are the states he would have to carry to defeat Obama:

State	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	RCP Average	RCP Status	2004	2000
Florida (27)	48.5	46.0	Obama +2.5	Toss Up	Bush +5.0	Bush +0.1
Virginia (13)	50.0	45.8	Obama +4.2	Toss Up	Bush +8.2	Bush +8.1
Ohio (20)	48.3	44.7	Obama +3.6	Toss Up	Bush +2.1	Bush +3.5
Colorado (9)	50.5	45.0	Obama +5.5	Leaning	Bush +4.7	Bush +8.4
This would make it a 269/269 tie. The kicker is Maine. Maine has two Congresional districts. It is one of two states that splits its four Electoral College votes, meaning McCain can come away with at least one of them if he wins Maine's northern, rural 2nd District.

[Friendofgeorge]

Unless the polls are simply made up.

[truthandlife]

Remember, all political races are local (no matter if they are national) and this will hit the local markets and make an impact on the race.

[Teacher317]

To me, this map is a fair starting point. The blue and red "solid" states are colored, and the rest are grey.

That gives:
Obama 234, McCain 163, Undecided 141.

Obama thus needs to add only 36 EV's.

The 11 unclaimed states are:

FL 27
PA 21
OH 20
NC 15 (I'd say leans McCain, based on nothing but my preconceived notions)
VA 13
IN 11 (leans McCain)
MO 11
CO 9 (leans Obama)
NM 5 (leans Obama)
NV 5 (leans Obama)
NH 4 (leans Obama)

If I'm right in my "leaning" guesses, it's now 257 Obama, 189 McCain. Obama is 13 short. MO wouldn't give it to him, but any of the others would. McCain must sweep FL, PA, OH, and VA... which is a pretty tall order. Get out and vote, America!

[JWinNC]

NC is going McCain. I don’t think it’s as close here as the polls/pundits say. If NC didn’t go for Gore and didn’t go for Kerry there is no way we’re going for BHO.

Obama is a candidate too far, even for the “yellow dog” dems.

[cherry]

I actually think the popular vote might just go to McPalin...in NYS and in Illinois and in California....and in Washington...remember....there are two worlds....one world of the SanFran and NYC and Chicago leftist and the other world of hard working people, farmers, housewives with children, military and vets, etc......these people do not want the abomination ....

[cherry]

to my calculations.....McPalin can afford to lose Va and Col and Iowa and New Mex ...win Pa....and he still wins.....is that correct?

[Thickman]

to my calculations.....McPalin can afford to lose Va and Col and Iowa and New Mex ...win Pa....and he still wins.....is that correct?

---

Yes, Mac would get exactly 270. But he is not going to lose all of those states. In fact CO and NV look very good as does IA as of yesterday. Mac is also looking decent in NH and MN. I think he could end up with 280+.

[Teacher317]

Yeah, I cannot believe that IN is supposedly in play. It’s gone for two dems since FDR (voting for FDR in his first two, but against FDR in his last 2).

[rbbeachkid]

However, most of the cities are concentrated in blue states

___________________________________________

Hence the reason they are blue states

[icwhatudo]

UPDATED POLLING FROM FOX/RASSM:

Colorado: Obama 51% McCain 47% O+4
Virginia: Obama 51% McCain 47% O+4
Ohio: Obama 49% McCain 49% TIED
Florida: McCain 50% Obama 49% O+1

[icwhatudo]

Ooops, McCain +1 Florida!

[Thickman]

So your point is? FRiend (?), the polls are crap this year.

[word_warrior_bob]

I like 270towin.com

I have McCain with MINIMUM of 311/312.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we then take Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Still not out of reach is Oregon and Washington and possibly Michigan.

[Ike]

I’m in a district that NEVER goes Dem, so I didn’t expect to see many ads. Last night, the Jeremiah Wright ad aired, but I haven’t seen the coal stuff, which doesn’t affect my area, either, except on the news.

I keep wondering about the “bradley” thing - Lynn Swann lost to Rendell by a pretty big margin; he even lost P’burgh. PA is definitely hard to call...

[Stentor]

I will too - and I live in Chicago so my vote is (probably literally) flushed down the toilet anyway

This is the first election since I've been living in Philadelphia that my vote might make a difference.

[wrhssaxensemble]

They learned it... they just still don’t understand it.... look at 2000

[BIOCHEMKY]

First, Mccain-Palin can lose 16 electoral votes off of the Bush ‘04 red states electoral map and win anyway.

However, the coal quote should put McCain-Palin over the top in the Kerry ‘04 blue state of PA.

So, now, McCain-Palin can lose 16 + 21 (37) electoral votes off the Bush ‘04 red states electoral map and win.

McCain-Palin are also likely to gain 1 of 4 electoral votes in Maine and they are likely to win the 4 electoral votes in New Hampshire.

So, now, McCain-Palin can lose 37 + 5 (42) electoral votes.

So if McCain-Palin win PA (21), ME(1), and NH (4) (and Bush ‘04 won with 16 extra electoral votes), McCain-Palin can lose 42 electoral votes from what were Bush ‘04 red states.

42 electoral votes IS ALOT of Bush ‘04 red states.

MY winning scenario is McCain-Palin win PA (21), ME(1), and NH (4) and lose:

NM (5)
CO (9)
VA (13)
NC (15)
_______
42 ev

Election result: 270 electoral votes for McCain-Palin

Hello! Pres. MCain & Vice Pres. Palin!!!!!

Therefore, McCain-Palin win PA, they can lose to lose VA (13 ev), CO (9), and up to

[M0sby]

PING TO YOU

[icwhatudo]

My point is McCain can win his thing! We need to stay positive!

[Michigan CD]

Obama doesn’t have to defend West Virginia, because WV has gone Republican the last two cycles. Winning WV would be a pickup, but I can’t imagine that WV people would throw away their livelihoods.