Posted on 11/03/2008 6:49:09 AM PST by icwhatudo
Its pretty simple. Assuming McCain wins the states he is currently in the lead or tied in according to RCP averages of state polls, then theses are the states he would have to carry to defeat Obama:
| State | Obama (D) | McCain (R) | RCP Average | RCP Status | 2004 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida (27) | 48.5 | 46.0 | Obama +2.5 |  Toss Up |
Bush +5.0 | Bush +0.1 |
| Virginia (13) | 50.0 | 45.8 | Obama +4.2 | Toss Up |
Bush +8.2 | Bush +8.1 |
| Ohio (20) | 48.3 | 44.7 | Obama +3.6 | Toss Up |
Bush +2.1 | Bush +3.5 |
| Colorado (9) | 50.5 | 45.0 | Obama +5.5 |  Leaning |
Bush +4.7 | Bush +8.4 |
|
This would make it a 269/269 tie. The kicker is Maine. Maine has two Congresional districts. It is one of two states that splits its four Electoral College votes, meaning McCain can come away with at least one of them if he wins Maine's northern, rural 2nd District.
|
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I don’t understand when the black population is only 11-12%, half or so of voting age, how that number could possibly determine the outcome.
Not really, because I am assuming he will lose NV, NM and IA.
Yes sure. Winning red states that Bush won is really like hitting the lottery.
ok.
It's all on turn out - state wide.
Rove is a numbers guy, and let's be honest, none of the public polls have good numbers for McCain. BUT as Michael Barone said on F&F this AM the polls are like impressionist paintings; the closer you get to them the more unclear they get.
McCain MUST win OH and VA. He also must win any two of these three: NV, CO, NH. (NV, NH combo results in a tie) OR win PA. As Rove said, McCain must flip a blue state. If McCain wins PA and holds all '04 blue states except NM, IA, NV, and CO he wins.
How much of this is Pollyanna wishful thinking, I can't say. Assume most of the undecideds go McCain. The real question is will the undecideds vote in the face of long wait times? They may be for McCain but are they dedicated to win or are they too uninformed to really be inconvenienced?
_________________
"British polls are properly and carefully weighted, taking account of what is known as the spiral of silence – the tendency of voters for the less fashionable party to keep their intentions to themselves. British pollsters weight their results to allow for these shy voters. US pollsters do not."
"It isn’t unreasonable to believe that there could be a Republican spiral of silence. And that US pollsters are all missing it."
-----
And has there been a year in recent history where one candidate was less "fashionable" than this year??? I don't think so.
How's acorn going to register "Electorals."
Conventional wisdom has it that long lines and good weather favor Democrats, because Republicans have jobs and can’t stand in line for hours to vote.
Even though my state is probably in the Zero column, I’m still going to wait as long as it takes to cast my vote. I hope those in Detroit and Flint/Saginaw are so confident that they stay home. McCain will easily win the rest of the State (with the possible exception of ‘Berkley East,’ a.k.a. Ann Arbor.)
You are assuming that the win or loss is like a coin flip. I would submit to you that, based on my own personal experiences, the coin is more likely to land with the McCain side up.
I was polled twice by Gallup this time around. The first question was on the economy, the second question was on the direction of the country, the third question was approval/disapproval of President Bush, and the forth question was McCain/Obama.
Now, I answered that the Economy was great, the country was moving in the right direction, I had a favorable opinion of President Bush, and I'm voting for McCain. I have no way of proving it, but I am fairly certain that I am the only person in America who answered those four questions that particular way. I think most people said that the economy sux, the country is headed down the toilet, and they don't much care for President Bush and then they were then asked who they like for President. Now, given that those three answers were fresh in their minds, how many are going to say that they want McCain?
The problem with the poll is, that people don't vote like that. They don't run through a check-list in their mind. They look at the two candidates, and pick who they think is best for the job. On that score, a heck of a lot of them are going to go for John McCain.
If Gallup wanted to improve their polling accuracy, they would call and ask who people were intending to vote for, and then hang up the phone. But, for some reason, polling accuracy does not seem to be top on their list of priorities.
Not really, because I am assuming he will lose NV, NM and IA.
Losing NV is not a good assumption, but neither are CO and VA good assumptions. 75% of undecides in VA are white and from the south part of the state. With recent polling in VA that can only point to a Mac victory there. CO is looking very good for Mac as well.
Under your assumption Mac would probably lose all of those states and PA would not matter a bit. Mac will end up with 280+ EV’s - bank on it.
Hate to say it but if McCain loses a consistent red state like VA I don't see him picking up PA. It's going to be feast or famine for McCain. VA is not only a must win state, but it will be a bellwether for the entire evening. Personally I think McCain can eek it out here if the military vote in S.E. turns out en masse.
With so many people in so many states voting early is it possible that the Dems have already fired their shot and that Tuesday belongs to Conservatives?
I think the people that want to vote against Obama and the late deciders braking for McCain will find short lines. The Obamites have already voted.
At least as anecdotal evidence.. I live in a liberal/dem county in NC, 50% of the registered voters in my county have already voted. My impression is that went a little bit for Obama. Tuesday will be more McCain.
jw
The bulk of the Rats die hard supporters may already have voted but because of big increases in turnout on both sides there will still be long lines.
Peoples Republic of Maryland here ... was hoping that the down ticket could be helped by my vote. My county is red, but Steny Hoyer is my rep for this district.
I havent seen a single ad by Hoyer. Those of us in blue states are really rooting for those of you in the swings to get out and vote.
Dont let the Messiah steal it from us ... get out and vote.
FlAttorney's FR "Straight Talk": 2008 Presidential Election Updated 24/7
TAB
we have the template already.
-selected not elected via judge.
-racism rampant in the usa
-we need more affirmative action
-we need a GURARNTEE the next judge will be black and an race quota specialist
-power sharing guarantee
-McCain enters under a scandal cloud
and the radials will sing
impeach impeach impeach do da do do da do,....
I did a search on the wire and did not find very many outside of MSM. I hope all the small town papers and radio /tv are covering this coal story big time?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.