Rove is a numbers guy, and let's be honest, none of the public polls have good numbers for McCain. BUT as Michael Barone said on F&F this AM the polls are like impressionist paintings; the closer you get to them the more unclear they get.
McCain MUST win OH and VA. He also must win any two of these three: NV, CO, NH. (NV, NH combo results in a tie) OR win PA. As Rove said, McCain must flip a blue state. If McCain wins PA and holds all '04 blue states except NM, IA, NV, and CO he wins.
How much of this is Pollyanna wishful thinking, I can't say. Assume most of the undecideds go McCain. The real question is will the undecideds vote in the face of long wait times? They may be for McCain but are they dedicated to win or are they too uninformed to really be inconvenienced?
Conventional wisdom has it that long lines and good weather favor Democrats, because Republicans have jobs and can’t stand in line for hours to vote.
Even though my state is probably in the Zero column, I’m still going to wait as long as it takes to cast my vote. I hope those in Detroit and Flint/Saginaw are so confident that they stay home. McCain will easily win the rest of the State (with the possible exception of ‘Berkley East,’ a.k.a. Ann Arbor.)
With so many people in so many states voting early is it possible that the Dems have already fired their shot and that Tuesday belongs to Conservatives?
I think the people that want to vote against Obama and the late deciders braking for McCain will find short lines. The Obamites have already voted.
At least as anecdotal evidence.. I live in a liberal/dem county in NC, 50% of the registered voters in my county have already voted. My impression is that went a little bit for Obama. Tuesday will be more McCain.
jw