Rasmussen Obama 52 McCain 46

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/03/2008 | RasmussenReports.com

[SoftwareEngineer]

On Monday, the final full day of campaigning for Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. That’s up a single point for Obama from his 51% to 46% advantage yesterday. There is just one more night of tracking and our final results for Election 2008 will be published here tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern

[Gay State Conservative]

There are fifty one elections being held tomorrow not one.In practical terms the only “polls” that will count tomorrow will be in the several battleground states.

[bcatwilly]

Assmussen may be the most credible “poll” out there this cycle in the sense that he openly publishes his weighting gap. So if you start with his current 6.5% advantage to the Democrats then here is my personal prediction for whatever it is worth:

1. I think it is reasonable to assume that you could take 3 points off that weighting, which effectively means 3 points to McCain.

2. So the race would then be at 3 points, which means that any surprising higher turnout on our side, late deciders for McCain etc. in the right states could give us a win.

3. Having said that I feel that the election will likely fall somewhere between a 51% - 48% Obama vote and a 51% - 48% McCain vote, with the odds of it being closer to the Obama side of things probably at 75%.

So in short it will be a comeback to win, but none of us should let “polls” keep us from proudly voting to keep that Marxist Obama out of office. Even if McCain doesn’t pull it out then we can be sure that we made the right decision and tell others of that for the next 4 years.

[ncalburt]

After this election , The US needs to BAN all POILLING 30 days before an election and ALL Exit POLLING Period ,

The Obama media and it allies have shown why the rest of the world has banned polling befoire an election and all exit polling .
This POLL crap is meant to sway and manipulate !

[utahagen]

I believe that many Democrats and Independents who will vote for McCain just are not going to admit this to pollsters, for fear of being called racists. This is an issue that could account for the six point spread.

[DRey]

"I still don’t like his having over 50 percent."

McCain would have over 50 percent if they were oversampling Republicans like they are oversampling Dems. The 50 marker is meaningless in these polls. It will only matter in the real one tomorrow, and Obama will NOT have over 50% tomorrow.

[napscoordinator]

dem bastids. lol.

[SoftwareEngineer]

I do not disagree with your analysis. That is why I have consistently predicted a 52% PV for McCain.

I base this on three factors:

1. Oversampling of Democrats
2. PUMA (short hand for cross voting Democrats)
3. Spiral of Silence (I will publish a white paper on this soon. This is what happened in the UK in 1992 where people did not want to talk about voting for a party that was “uncool” ). There is ample evidence of this.

[PigRigger]

I was thinking the same thing this morning....nice post....

[nhwingut]

The black vote is going to come out in droves, like never before, giving the popular vote to Obama.

However, they are mostly concentrated in blue states (i.e. NYC, Detroit, Chicago, LA, Oakland) which do Obama no good.

McCain wins the electoral college vote.

[meadsjn]

With 80% of people being called by pollsters refusing to participate, the poll results are useless garbage. A quick look at the actual demographics and voting stats across the various states would indicate that Obama cannot draw more than 50 million votes, and this election will bring out record numbers of 130 million or more.

McCain/Palin will win in a clear landslide, and they will take office in January 2009.

Riots may occur in some big cities. We can recover from those and move forward. The media, the pollsters, and the RINOs who betrayed their people and their country will have been exposed for the unscrupulous turncoats they are.

[central_va]

I trust the Poles, look how they stood up to the former USSR.

[goldstategop]

If they have to doctor their polls to get Obama over 50%, how strong is he really? Your guess is as good as mine.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Linda Frances]

I just got this from FR 2004:

NOV 1, 2004 Polling data Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231

11/01/2008 4:11:27 PM PDT · by tallyhoe · 62 replies · 1,223+ views
Electorial Vote ^ | Nov. 1, 2004 | Electorial Vote
There was another attack this morning and that took some time to deal with. Remember that if the site is unreachable, try the backup sites: www.electoral-vote3.com through www.electoral-vote8.com. I will also update the site tonight as the actual results come in. Furthermore I will also do a post-mortem on the election in the coming days, so check back later in the week. My special interest is how well the pollsters did. To see the current predictions broken down by pollster, see the Pollsters page and the pages for the battleground states, many of which have separate graphs per pollster. Now...

[Sooth2222]

However, they are mostly concentrated in blue states (i.e. NYC, Detroit, Chicago, LA, Oakland) which do Obama no good.

The state with the highest proportion of African Americans is Mississipi (37%).

[Fishrrman]

“If Obama does win easily and there are Democratic gains in both houses we are going to have to face the fact that America is not the place we thought we knew”

Probably the most concise and insightful post I’ve read yet this morning on any thread.

Regardless of who wins, by Wednesday night we are going to understand just how much _some_ parts of America have changed.

And if we lose, perhaps the best move for conservatives might become a literal one: to those places that still resemble the America “that was”...

- John

[SoftwareEngineer]

(Famous Iron Curtain Joke. I am sure many old timers from the Soviet Bloc remember this one)

So, it is 1982 and a Polish Engineer, Bulgarian Engineer and a Hungarian Engineer are all visiting Moscow for a Technical Conference. They are all put up in the massive Hotel Rossiya.

After a hard evening of drinking they are all back in their shared hotel room. The Bulgarian and Hungarian start making nasty jokes about Lenin, Communism and Russians. The Polish engineer is alarmed and tells them “Guys! Stop talking like this. All these rooms are bugged and there are KGB guys hearing everything you say! We will be arrested”

The Bulgarian says “Give me a break! You are so paranoid, you Polish Engineer. As if the KGB has time to waste listening to low level engineers like us”

So the Polish guy decides to teach them a lesson. As the Bulgarian and the Hungarian are in the bathroom brushing their teeth, he knocks the door really loudly and announces “Freeze! This is the KGB! I am a Colonel. You are all under arrest!”. The Bulgarian and the Hungarian fall on the ground crying and pleading for mercy.

The Polish engineer has a good laugh!

Next morning when he wakes up he notices the Bulgarian and the Hungarian are gone! He calls the front desk and asks what happened to the Bulgarian and the Hungarian. The front desk person says that the KGB came in the middle of the night and arrested them for treason!!

The Polish engineer is alarmed and scared but also curious. “How come they did not arrest me?”...

The front desk replies.. “Zee Colonel... He liked your joke”

[supremedoctrine]

I want this oversampling to continue right up to and through tomorrow. That way a sizable percentage of would-be Obama voters, upset at the idea of waiting in line for an hour or two, will think it’s in the bag, and go home.
Overconfidence will kill Obama twice.
But having said all that, I see a lot of last minute demands to keep the polls open for hours past the scheduled closing, otherwise “vote suppression” will be the
new mantra for the next several days.

[PhiKapMom]

Very well said! Whatever drove the pollsters to keep changing methodology to keep Obama in the lead and the media news stories that covered up the true Obama has shown the whole lot of them to have “zero” ethics.

[FreepShop1]

Obama needs to be at 49% or less. This is not favorable.

[mono]

Today’s state polls are not very encouraging. McCain MUST win PA or it’s over.