IBD/TIPP: O-46.7, M-44.6, U-8.7 (McCain gains 2.4 points!)

TIPP ^ | 11/2 | TIPP

[tatown]

Day 21: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll

The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.

[cajungirl]

I hate early voting,,takes the edge of late momentum and it worries me. I hope the undecideds are people who cannot bring themselves to vote for Obama and the early voters wouldn’t change mind anyway.

THis looks like a good poll,,

[fortheDeclaration]

I’ve already apologized for letting the liberals get to me this morning. We continue to make calls here to battleground states.

Keep up the good work, we are going to win this!

[cajungirl]

It looks like that but keep an eye on undecideds,,that is where McCain’s victory is.

[cajungirl]

That Halloween nite snappishness started with OBAMA WALKING TOWARD THE REPORTERS,,HE INVITED THEIR INTEREST AND THEN ACTED LIKE A GIRL, RUNNING AWAY,,WHAT A SILLY MAN

[fretzer]

That Halloween nite snappishness started with OBAMA WALKING TOWARD THE REPORTERS,,HE INVITED THEIR INTEREST AND THEN ACTED LIKE A GIRL, RUNNING AWAY,,WHAT A SILLY MAN

You really shouldn't insult women that way you know.

[Interesting Times]

Here’s one thing about this poll I don’t understand: 89% of Rep vote for McCain, 85% of Dems vote for BO, and 47% of Independents vote for McCain vs. 45% BO vote for McCain. If you add up the numbers here, it looks like McCain should be in the lead.... UNLESS they are overpolling Democrats.

There are more registered Democrats than Republicans.

[cajungirl]

Yeah I guess,,he acted like a girly man,,is that okay.

He really did walk right toward them and then put on the “leave me alone for privacy” crap

[SeekAndFind]

Oversampling of Democrats.

Here's the thing I don't get. Most 2008 polls assume that there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. Let's assume this is true.... however, most of the samples show registered Dems outnumbering Republicans by at least 6 percentage points.

ON WHAT BASIS DO THEY MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION ? Have anyone of these pollsters given any good explanation ?

[af_vet_1981]

I think I am more excited to see the Obamunist under 47%.

Yep, if true the most he gets is what Kerry got.

Pray and vote.

[af_vet_1981]

UNLESS they are overpolling Democrats. Is my reasoning accurate?

Yes, almost all the pundits and pollsters are banking on a huge Democratic shift this election because of Obama. I'm on the other side and see a tremendous level of fear because of Obama. If the turnout motivated by fear exceeds the turnout motivated by hope, the hero (McCain) wins and the Republic is saved.

[af_vet_1981]

ON WHAT BASIS DO THEY MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION ? Have anyone of these pollsters given any good explanation ?

I think they have a solid basis, an intense hatred by liberals of all stripes for George W. Bush, a cult following of Obama to right every wrong of history and march us into transcendent biracial socialism, and large increases in Democrat registrations. I hope they are missing the tremendous motivation of fear on the part of more traditional Americans, as well as Operation Chaos, and PUMA voters. I really don't know though and it is scary. We need divine intervention with our best efforts.

[omega4179]

Will Obama collapse in time for tuesday morning, we ran out of time with Carter’s collapse.

[wny]

Never underestimate the sleaziness of the dems or how low they will stoop. Look for Chuck Schumer to claim tomorrow morning that he knows of 2 banks and 4 insurance companies about to collapse, market tanks 10%. Game over. These people will stop at nothing.

[bray]

2 pt race and 9% undecided, looking good. Can we say Truman II?

Pray for McCuda and Our Troops

[Vigilanteman]

The Dick Morris axiom says undecideds break 2:1 for the challenger. Since the media has already elected Obama, McCain is the challenger. Therefore, McCain gets 2/3rds of the 8.7% or 5.8% + 44.6% = 50.4%!

Let's make sure we are out there to do our part and send Satan's servant packing!

[2ndamendment-free]

Yet Britt Hume, on Fox news today, said that O had a solid 10 point lead in the Gallop polls. Is Fox in the tank for O too?

[fortheDeclaration]

Here's the thing I don't get. Most 2008 polls assume that there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. Let's assume this is true.... however, most of the samples show registered Dems outnumbering Republicans by at least 6 percentage points. ON WHAT BASIS DO THEY MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION ? Have anyone of these pollsters given any good explanation ?

I believe it is based on new voter registrations and the assumption that the GOP will vote according to 2006 numbers and not 2004 ones.

[1-Eagle]

This is great news. If all this holds up, why would New York not be in play in future elections? If Pennsylvania can be in play, and if they can elect a GOP Governor and GOP Mayor, why not a GOP President?