Posted on 11/02/2008 7:18:33 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
Down to the wire, Va. still too close to call, poll shows
The survey of 625 likely voters in Virginia found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and 9 percent were undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Swing state
Should Virginia vote Democratic, Barack Obama probably will win the White House. But should McCain hold the state, the result could portend a McCain comeback nationally.
The earliest signs of who will be the next president might spring from Virginia and how undecided white voters such as John Morris and Sidney Blankenbeckler cast their ballots.
"I'm pretty disappointed in Republicans right now, and I don't think John McCain is offering a lot that's new," said Morris, a retired Navy captain who lives in Chesterfield County, a prosperous Richmond suburb. "But frankly, I'm scared of Obama and some of the things he's been talking about."
Three hundred miles west, in tiny Sugar Grove, a farming and manufacturing community deep in the Appalachians, Blankenbeckler worries that a McCain victory would mean "four more years of kind of dragging along" but that Obama might be "borderline Socialist." Blankenbeckler said he is trying to decide "which is least worst."
Virginia will be among the first states to report results Tuesday night, and should it vote Democratic for the first time in a presidential race since 1964 - as many polls suggest - Barack Obama probably will win the White House. But should McCain hold the state, the result could portend a McCain comeback nationally.
A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.
The telephone survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. on Wednesday and Thursday.
J. Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
The same phenomenon occurred in North Carolina's 1990 U.S. Senate race. Democrat Harvey Gantt, an African American, led by 4 percentage points in the final poll only to lose by 6 points on Election Day to Republican Jesse Helms.
"The million-dollar question is whether there will be a Wilder/Gantt effect in the 2008 presidential race," Coker said. "No matter what anyone theorizes, the answer today is that no one knows for sure."
In addition to Virginia, Coker said, the effect could tilt the scales to McCain in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, said he normally expects about a 2 percent dip in white support for a black candidate on Election Day - not enough, he predicted, to tilt victory to McCain nationally or in Virginia.
And Obama's campaign might have insulated its candidate against any drop-off in white support, Sabato said, by registering millions of new voters in minority communities and college towns across the nation where the Democratic nominee appears especially popular.
Obama's strategists dispute the notion of a gap between the Illinois senator's white support in polls and in actual voting. Surveys accurately predicted the votes Obama received in most of the presidential primary elections earlier this year, they note, and Obama split the white vote evenly with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Virginia's Democratic primary.
Other analysts note that Virginia's electorate today is a considerably different from 1989, largely because of explosive growth in the Washington, D.C., suburbs and an influx of immigrants.
Bob Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, said he expects that highly motivated black voters and mostly Latino immigrants unhappy with GOP calls for tighter immigration laws will produce a 65,000-vote margin for Obama in Northern Virginia, more than double the advantage that Democrat John Kerry enjoyed there in 2004.
Holsworth said Obama also might benefit from having taken time to "become a familiar face" to Virginians. While other Democratic presidential candidates have tended to give up early on Virginia, Obama has shown up early and often - going to party functions and stumping for Virginia Democrats such as Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb before he was running himself.
Whatever the impact of race, Obama clearly is benefiting from President Bush's unpopularity in Virginia and around the nation. McCain has been cast as an heir to Bush "and he gets tarred with that brush," said U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, a Fairfax County Republican who is giving up his congressional seat and worries that it, too, will slip into Democratic hands.
Obama approaches Election Day with an overwhelming money advantage over McCain, stemming from his decision to for go federal financing of his campaign and raise cash on his own. As a result, Obama has opened 50 campaign offices around Virginia and has outspent McCain on broadcast advertising by more than 3-to-1.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows Obama with a 61 percent to 31 percent lead in populous Northern Virginia and a 50 percent to 40 percent lead in Hampton Roads. McCain is ahead in all other regions.
Among whites, McCain holds a 53 percent to 36 percent lead. Among blacks, Obama has a 92 percent to 5 percent advantage.
Each campaign boasts an army of more than 10,000 volunteers to lead what it predicts will be an unprecedented get-out-the-vote effort on Tuesday.
"I've never seen anything like this," said Del. Kenneth Melvin, D-Portsmouth, who supports Obama. "It's incredible. There's electricity in the air."
Morton Blackwell, one of the state's two representatives on the Republican National Committee, said, "I can tell you that many conservative interest groups out there are not sitting on their hands in this election."
Blackwell identified organizations that are pro-gun rights, anti-abortion and anti-union and added that if it were not for the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate, "a lot of these conservative interest groups would not be involved."
we're winning!
Predictions are based on comparing areas' returns to past returns. Several 'bellwether' Va precincts have turned more Dem and the media will base early calls on them.
But those Reps who used to live in those areas are still in Va, and still voting in other precincts. And the Dem voters in those areas are no longer voting in their old precincts.
We've had a lot of movement of our population internally. Past 'belwethers' are not today's.
So early calls of Va can 'legitimately' be made on flawed data- expect the media to do so.
Vote and help a friend vote and we ll win. It's gonna be turnout that decides Virginia's vote and the future of our country, even of the world!
I'm sensing an Obamaton pop-up. Who do you think you're fooling?
They're scam artists..professional scam artists but scam artists non the less.
Doesn't 'sprize me a bit!! ;-)
Folks,
Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, etc. used to be solid red states which the GOP need not have worried about.
The fact that McCain is fighting for his life in these states is not a good sign.
I’m sensing an Obamaton pop-up. Who do you think you’re fooling?
“I’m pretty disappointed in Republicans right now, and I don’t think John McCain is offering a lot that’s new,” said Morris, a retired Navy captain who lives in Chesterfield County, a prosperous Richmond suburb. “But frankly, I’m scared of Obama and some of the things he’s been talking about.””
This guy was a Navy Captain, in charge of the safety of his ship?
I wouldn’t want to be on any ship that HE was commanding.
The guy is “scared”? But can’t come to a decision this late? What would he do “on the bridge”?
Captain Queeg, please pick up the courtesy phone!
- John
“The military absentee ballots WILL BE COUNTED!”
Good news!
How can the fact that Virginia, which hasn't gone for a Democrat since 1964, is too close to call look at all good for a Republican? McCain should be up by 10 or more in this state.
What part of 'retired' is so hard for you to comprehend?
Hey FReepers just to be clear this new guy just told a big fat whopper!
“I’m seeing a disturbingly large number of Obama signs in Stafford (solidly Republican county). More seemed to pop-up overnight. Could be that the Obamatons are sensing victory and are “coming out of the closet”.”
Not true!
Less than 48 hours!!! One final push to save the U.S.A.!
The challenge:
Between NOW and election day, convince at least two Obama/Undecided voters to vote for McCain. (family, neighbors, friends, people waiting in the check-out line) Further, convince these two people (or two others) to take up the same challenge. (Like a chain letter)
So you have converted people in the past? Good, but we need more!
Many Obama supporters are mindlessly supporting him, with no real reason, this means it is VERY easy to get them to switch over. Even if you fail, other Obama/undecideds may be in the room and hear valid arguments and question their faith in the One.
Don’t kick yourself a week from now saying “I could’ve done more....”
Do your part...your country depends on it!
lol
Hero-Hottie vs. Zero-Pluggie?
Right!
Or a riot when he loses.....Turning 1,000,000 lose on the people of the "Region".
What’s the real deal with VA? When in fear, take some comfort in Numbers.
In 2004:
A total of 3,192,894 people voted. Virginia has estimated a total of 400,000 new legal voters. Voting population is approximately 5 Million.. Voter turnout was around 69% in 2004 and it is expected to be the low 70’s for this election.
The makeup of 2004 was +39R +35 D +26I
Bush Retained 95% of GOP voters, Kerry 92% of Dems
Indies split for Bush 54-44
Fast forward to 2006 Senate Race
Only, 2,364,217 or 50% of VA’s voting population actually came out to vote.
The makeup was +39R +36D +26I
Allen Retained 94% of GOP voters, Webb got 93%
Independents broke for Webb 56-44
Interesting results, in that while this was an off year for GOP, lack of Democrat enthusiasm in VA offset any weird voting trends. So that gives us 2 cycles of clear voting data.
PS> Tim Kaine got even less votes than Jim Webb (just over 1 million).
So based on all the data above, it’s been evident that even in off years, more GOP voters come out to vote.
Given the information above, it is safe to say the GOP will be at least +39 for this election. For the Democrats, probably +37 and Independents +24
Both Bush/Allen and Kerry/Webb’s retention of Party Voters is incredible. It is hard to see either party exceeding these amounts. For this reason, I’m going to give McCain 92% (a safe lower estimate). For Obama, this is one state he may actually get 89-90% Dem support (I’ll go with 90). That leaves it to independents:
Assuming 3,600,000 voters:
GOP
McCain 92% of 39% of 3,600,000 = 1,291,680
Obama 8% of 39% of 3,600,000 = 112,320
DEM
McCain 10% of 37% of 3,600,000 = 133,200
Obama 90% of 37% of 3,600,000 = 1,198,800
That makes it: McCain 1,424,880 Obama 1,311,120
That magical 50% mark would be 1,800,000 votes. So of the 24% of Independents, under this scenario, Obama would need to carry 488,880 of the 936,000 estimated independent votes or 52%. Kerry got only 44%. Webb got 55%. Unfortunately, this number is possible for Obama to obtain. BUT…if Independents/Undecided break for McCain, that challenge becomes a lot more daunting.
Oh, and in order for Obama to win VA by the 6+ points the polls are suggesting, he would have would 64% of Independents (11 points more than Webb or Kaine). Now I ask you, is that realistic?
These numbers I used are low-balling numbers to show the worst possible case scenario for McCain above. In essence, if McCain wins at least 48% of Indies, he’ll win VA.
Now go out and VOTE!
CHeck out this (good laug/ but true) on the Margin of Error:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117123/posts
“The Homecoming Ticket!”
think what makes you feel better but this election if it is to be won by McCain will be won by huge GOP turnout not simply by the notion that evry single poll is now wrong.
a month ago when McCain had a slight lead after the RNC and Palin nomination, the polls were believed
now that it’s turned against us after the Wall Street collapse and Obama and the Media’s fairly successful strategery to blame Bush and hence McCain, the polls are all bogus and wrong
I agree they almost all lean Democrat and some are crazy weighed Democrat but I don’t think every single tracking poll in America is part of a conspiracy
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