Posted on 11/01/2008 8:21:56 PM PDT by mathwhizz
A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.
The telephone survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. on Wednesday and Thursday.
J. Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
The same phenomenon occurred in North Carolina's 1990 U.S. Senate race. Democrat Harvey Gantt, an African American, led by 4 percentage points in the final poll only to lose by 6 points on Election Day to Republican Jesse Helms.
"The million-dollar question is whether there will be a Wilder/Gantt effect in the 2008 presidential race," Coker said. "No matter what anyone theorizes, the answer today is that no one knows for sure."
I’m not a big believer in the Wilder Effect, I am a big believer in the Lying Marxist Effect.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1027_635.aspx
The Bradley/Wilder Effect
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
October 27, 2008 — It is probably the secret “Great White Hope” of some Republicans. And if by some miracle John McCain wins, it will undoubtedly become the Democrats’ accepted explanation for Barack Obama’s loss. It is the much-discussed “Bradley effect,” or in the South, the “Wilder effect.” It is the — unproved — assertion that some white voters tell pollsters they are either undecided or plan to vote for the black candidate, then vote for the white candidate. The supposition is that these voters fear they would exhibit, or reveal, racial prejudice if they told the pollster they were voting for the white candidate.
The theory is named for two elections. In 1989, Doug Wilder (D), an African American, won the governorship of Virginia by a narrow 50.2% to 49.8% over Marshall Coleman (R), his white opponent. Pre-election polls showed Wilder would win by a larger margin. A late October survey for the Washington Post gave Wilder 52%, Coleman 37%. In the Mason-Dixon poll taken about the same time as the Post’s survey, Wilder had 48%, Coleman 44%. Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker points out, “If you give Wilder all the ‘undecided’ blacks and Coleman all the ‘undecided’ whites, it comes out at 50%-50%.” (In any case, Wilder got about 40% of the white vote; were Obama to replicate this, he would carry most of the South.)
-snip-
Tammy Bruce says that anyone who is voting for Obama has decided already.
has the other newspapers release their polls yet.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Are these remaining undecideds really likely to vote, in your opinion? If the poll is accurate and most of the undecideds stay home, Obama carries VA.
Good news in Virginia.
McCain is taking Virginia.
polls back then sucked. Mason Dixon back then (and now) was the only one remotely close.
Probably the smartest thing a pollster could say to insure he/she has a job on Nov. 5th. MD was very accurate IIRC.
Not everyone thinks the same. Almost all of us here at FR are enthusiastic for Sarah Palin as McCain's VP pick, but her lack of national experience gives them pause. Fortunately, she handles herself well (the more they see and hear her the better it gets) and Obama doesn't really have much more national experience than she does (a few lackluster years in the Senate). They have to choose between McCain and Obama, not Biden and Palin, and I think some of them are ambivalent. I pray they will choose McCain.
I agree — if this poll is right, VA is McCain’s.
The undecided’s will break 90/10 in favor of McCain. These are basically people who support McCain but didn’t want to tell a strange pollster that over the phone.
They said almost the exact same thing today about Florida. Is this just the boilerplate analysis now. If odumbo doesnt win its because of those racist white undecided voters and not the 97 pct racist blacks that voted for him
Yup. I read somewhere that some Libs are posting a web site with addresses of people with McCain signs in Seattle. Talk about police state intimidation. If you were in Seattle would you tell a pollster you were for McCain.
Here I think is the biggie. You are a PUMA or white Democrat union person voting for McCain. Unions are like a freaking Soviet police state. If you vote Repub you never tell anybody. If somebody calls your house you either say Obama or undecided.
Another thing about VA is it is next to DC. One FR person here in VA said his neighbors and he in N VA talk in whispers about voting McCain. No yard signs.
You work in govt and you are a Repub you usually keep your mouth shut.
” 97 pct racist blacks”
I’m willing to up this to 98%
Any poll showing Obama under 48% with a large undeicded is a legitimate poll. Anything showing Obama over 50% is nonsense.
PhDs will be written on the anomalies of the polling in this election. The manipulation by pollsters and ultimate gap between predicted and actual results (a McCain victory) will rewrite the history books and the “Bradley Effect” will be replaced by the “Obama Effect”.
Just watch.
The million dollar answer is as plain as the egg on this pollster’s face. Those white folk are undecided because they’d rather tell the pollster they haven’t decided instead of saying they’re not voting Obasm. Racists! Bwahahaha VA is a pick-up (was it really in doubt?)
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