http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1027_635.aspx
The Bradley/Wilder Effect
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
October 27, 2008 — It is probably the secret “Great White Hope” of some Republicans. And if by some miracle John McCain wins, it will undoubtedly become the Democrats’ accepted explanation for Barack Obama’s loss. It is the much-discussed “Bradley effect,” or in the South, the “Wilder effect.” It is the — unproved — assertion that some white voters tell pollsters they are either undecided or plan to vote for the black candidate, then vote for the white candidate. The supposition is that these voters fear they would exhibit, or reveal, racial prejudice if they told the pollster they were voting for the white candidate.
The theory is named for two elections. In 1989, Doug Wilder (D), an African American, won the governorship of Virginia by a narrow 50.2% to 49.8% over Marshall Coleman (R), his white opponent. Pre-election polls showed Wilder would win by a larger margin. A late October survey for the Washington Post gave Wilder 52%, Coleman 37%. In the Mason-Dixon poll taken about the same time as the Post’s survey, Wilder had 48%, Coleman 44%. Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker points out, “If you give Wilder all the ‘undecided’ blacks and Coleman all the ‘undecided’ whites, it comes out at 50%-50%.” (In any case, Wilder got about 40% of the white vote; were Obama to replicate this, he would carry most of the South.)
-snip-
McCain’s taking PA, FL, OH, MO, VA guaranteed folks. Undecideds are going to break overwhelmingly for him and I am willing to state that I doubt Fauxbama will even get his polled numbers in many states.
McCain will also flip at least 1 more rust belt state. There is no path to the White House for Fauxbama.
Tuesday, the MSM, Fauxbama et al will be getting the collective finger by the American electorate, and democrats will cry and scream and claim foul. But McCain is not only going to win, he’s going to win by a much larger margin than GW in 04.