Posted on 11/01/2008 3:12:37 PM PDT by johncocktoasten
My FRiends all you need to know about this election is as follows:
You can't win an election by losing 20% of your own base and losing independents.
Forget about Gallup or Rasmussen tracking polls and their special sauce weighting for party ID. Rasmussen says today that Obama receives support from only 75% of Democrats and is losing independents by a slight margin, but incredibly, defying laws of math and physics still leads McCain by 4% overall. Friends, that simply is not possible.
If you are looking for a poll showing a McCain lead before election day, you can forget it. It isn't going to happen, nor does it need to. In fact, it serves us better if McCain doesn't lead prior to victory on Tuesday night. The fall and subsequent meltdown of the left and its propagandist media is the result we need. This is a war we are in with the left. Why would you expect them to give us any quarter? Credibility? Honesty? Those traits have been discarded in the name of advocacy and survival.
Meanwhile, the Full Court Press will continue through election day and into the evening after the polls close. Many of you will go to sleep, resigned to a President Barack H. Obama. You will wake surprised to learn of John McCain's election instead. The media and pollsters have willingly bought the myth of huge youth and new voter turnout. However, the truth is that the Democrat voter registration goals in many states only moved Democrats to parity with Republicans in voter registration. John McCain has consistently outpolled his Voter ID percentages this entire campaign. If you see a poll with Obama up by 10, you can be certain that the Dem Party ID advantage was at least 13%. If you see Obama up 5, you can be certain the Dem Party ID advantage was 7%.
The Obama campaign is going to continue the push of inevitability stories thru election day. They aren't concerned with looking bad after the fact, because they have no shame. So understand that this garbage is coming, understand that our base is still going to show up huge, and understand that mathematically we are in the driver's seat. All we have to do is show up.
The other side is sitting there hoping to make something happen that has never happened before.
The IBD/TIPP Poll is at 47.2-43.8-8.0 undecided today. These are likely voters mind you. Those 8% undecideds are votes for John McCain FRiends. Not to mention that Obama's total number is overstated in these polls as his likely's are less likely than Mc's.
Look at the red states where Obama thinks he has a shot. IN, NC, VA, and GA all have huge minority populations, which is the only factor making these states close.
New Voters is a Myth, Gallup found the percentages of new votes identical to 2004
Youth Votes are a Myth, once again, the percentage increase in youth vote is below trend from 2004
Don't fall for the myths. Just vote and talk to FRiends and family about voting McCain.
America is not stupid, only the media portrayal of America is stupid. We won't elect Obama.
Yours may be the most accurate poll of the bunch!
And if not, then we’re all cocktoasted!
I would just go to your county courthouse and run a search on Foreclosure deed filings by date and zip code of the property address. Lexis/Nexis would probably be able to provide similar info. Another product is called ListSource and it is sold through First American Title out of California.
No problem....:)
One last thing:
I can’t wait to hear the story on election day when someone goes to David Axelrod and Says, “Sir, let me be the first to call you, Bob Shrum.”
“Lets push to get polls out of our politics once and for all.”
We can’t ban them but we could neutralize them with a public strategy destined to render them moot. I will discuss a strategy on Free Republic several days after the election.
Have there been, overall, any changes to the “special sauce” since 2004? I seem to recall that Kerry never really ever lead in the polls back then, and he lost decisively, though not in a landslide. I’m sure they’re always making assumptions about turnout. The early voting line yesterday here in NC was about a block long, and it looked like a big number of people there looked like the types that the Democrat machine recruits. McCain has struggling for a long time, and we’re counting on a last minute surge. The surge looks genuine, but the extreme lateness of it is going to hurt us. Optimism is good, but votes are better, and things get really hairy after the election.
please ping me. I would like to know your strategy to neutralize the pollsters.
I’d say the Obama “landslide” talk is bullcrap, but Democrats are going to make major gains, and no one on our side is denying that. It’s a question of really bad or worst case scenario. Vote.
It’s a new moon with with heavy cloud cover tonight.
I *could* dress all in black and “give” them one of my extra McCain signs.....:)
On the African American censue: 36,000,000 total, about 20,000,000 eligible to vote, times 95% for O, = 19,000,000 votes, Kerry got 88%, or around 17,000,000, so O will get about 2,000,000 additional, add in another 1,000,000 in fraud for this group, still less than the PUMAs....
Why can we not ban them? What protection does a poll have that any business in America does not have? A shoe factory can be shut down by a city council by merely pulling the business license. We take their license to do business. We force FCC to fine media outlets millions every time they violate an edict against using polls as news. We slap fines on polls for being wrong, we file lawsuits against them when they are wrong, there must be dozens and dozens of ways to stop them.
Neutralizing, is also a good idea, but I would say that is for the short term. Long term goal: Ban the polls.
I have NEVER lived in a state as racist as Merlin. It was startling. And it was the first state I ever felt uneasy when a young black guy got in the elevator with me, so much resentment he radiated. It is not a feeling I ever had, ever, in a city in the South.
Hard to believe.
No problem. Beat your chests. Here's my challenge. I promise that I'll return to this thread on Nov. 5th to review your predictions. If you are correct, I will admit the brilliance of your logic. Anyone promise to join me? Or can we look forward to the sight of your hairy backs?
I’m in western Merlin.
It’s a different world out here.
Where were you?
Near DC/Balto?
It gets iffier the further east I go.
East of Montgomery county, I get a bit twitchy about being too friendly to strangers.
The MD Republicans are nice people.
The MD Dems are still either fighting the civil war or trying to start a new one.
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