Posted on 11/01/2008 3:12:37 PM PDT by johncocktoasten
My FRiends all you need to know about this election is as follows:
You can't win an election by losing 20% of your own base and losing independents.
Forget about Gallup or Rasmussen tracking polls and their special sauce weighting for party ID. Rasmussen says today that Obama receives support from only 75% of Democrats and is losing independents by a slight margin, but incredibly, defying laws of math and physics still leads McCain by 4% overall. Friends, that simply is not possible.
If you are looking for a poll showing a McCain lead before election day, you can forget it. It isn't going to happen, nor does it need to. In fact, it serves us better if McCain doesn't lead prior to victory on Tuesday night. The fall and subsequent meltdown of the left and its propagandist media is the result we need. This is a war we are in with the left. Why would you expect them to give us any quarter? Credibility? Honesty? Those traits have been discarded in the name of advocacy and survival.
Meanwhile, the Full Court Press will continue through election day and into the evening after the polls close. Many of you will go to sleep, resigned to a President Barack H. Obama. You will wake surprised to learn of John McCain's election instead. The media and pollsters have willingly bought the myth of huge youth and new voter turnout. However, the truth is that the Democrat voter registration goals in many states only moved Democrats to parity with Republicans in voter registration. John McCain has consistently outpolled his Voter ID percentages this entire campaign. If you see a poll with Obama up by 10, you can be certain that the Dem Party ID advantage was at least 13%. If you see Obama up 5, you can be certain the Dem Party ID advantage was 7%.
The Obama campaign is going to continue the push of inevitability stories thru election day. They aren't concerned with looking bad after the fact, because they have no shame. So understand that this garbage is coming, understand that our base is still going to show up huge, and understand that mathematically we are in the driver's seat. All we have to do is show up.
The other side is sitting there hoping to make something happen that has never happened before.
The IBD/TIPP Poll is at 47.2-43.8-8.0 undecided today. These are likely voters mind you. Those 8% undecideds are votes for John McCain FRiends. Not to mention that Obama's total number is overstated in these polls as his likely's are less likely than Mc's.
Look at the red states where Obama thinks he has a shot. IN, NC, VA, and GA all have huge minority populations, which is the only factor making these states close.
New Voters is a Myth, Gallup found the percentages of new votes identical to 2004
Youth Votes are a Myth, once again, the percentage increase in youth vote is below trend from 2004
Don't fall for the myths. Just vote and talk to FRiends and family about voting McCain.
America is not stupid, only the media portrayal of America is stupid. We won't elect Obama.
This is a war we are in with the left.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Call it what it is: MARXISM COMMUNISM!
We have been in a political and cultural war with **American** Marxists for more than a century!
The Marxists know that they are at war. Conservatives think we are enjoying peace. ( Dumb frogs!)
Of the 75% of Democrats allegedly voting for Obama, how many of them are black?
Guess you never watched Chevy Chase’s movie “Fletch”? Yes he’s insane now, but he was in top form then.
Illegal voters are NOT a myth.
That is what I am most afraid of.
Flyover country will just shake their heads at these antics. Another point though:
Does anyone believe that farmers in Iowa are going to vote for someone known to want heavy restrictions on gun sales?
Does anyone believe that professionals who have built careers and retirements want to vote for “change” that will dispossess them of their 401Ks?
Does anyone believe that “being mad at Bush” (which is overblown if you ask me) is a reason to throw your country away?
Real civic minded Americans would not answer yes to any of these questions. Democrats and liberals prey on emotion, but the problem with seizing on that is it is very hard to keep emotion high for an entire campaign. People get burned out at the end, and those who operate on emotion alone, tend to be distracted very easily.
I am specifically praying for horrible weather in the blue cities and bright blue skies for the red areas.
Miracles do happen. :-)
It will be a landslide in the other direction.
Yeah it's PURE BS! You'd have to be a math idiot to think 11% of the population (blacks) turning out in greater numbers is going to beat the other 89% of the population turning out in greater numbers. For every "extra" black voter this election there will be at least 2 "extra" non-black voters, who are turning out for the opposite reason.
Strafe under there with an AK-47 a couple times.
Voila!
No more monster!
Not so quick... I'll bet for each for that extra 5% black vote in GA, the GOP gets an extra 10% of white rednecks, RAT white racists, etc, that turn out, scared to death of an Obama victory.
It is more than Hillary. Racism is **still** a factor.
My father, a lifetime hard-core Democrat, is voting for McCain this year. Reason: Racism!
The media is the scum of the earth. I have more respect for pimps that journalists. We will never get the msm to act in an even remotely responsible manner.
Conservative and/or the GOP need our own media outlets. Outlets that don’t waste time trying to be “fair and balanced” but tell our side. Outlets that apeal to the average citizen an not just to the GOP faithful.
I’d say TV has five years left as the main entertainment and news forum before Internet Video completely overwhelms it. We can do a lot to make sure we at least match the enemy on the internet.
African Americans compose 12% of the 2007 census (last update). That’s as a nation.
Obama is carrying this group 94-98% nationwide...
The only state that concerns me on the fraud is Pennsylvania, and I think the fix is in with Rendell. I believe he will tell the hacks to stay home on Tuesday. The Clintons have one more chance at the White House if he loses, and they want it.
Indiana, Nevada, and Iowa all have voter ID laws, which will minimize the fraud opportunity. I think the Indiana Attorney General is going to have Gary, Indiana crawling with poll watchers at every precinct and hotlines for fraud.
In addition, I think it motivates the base to GOTV in these states to provide cushion.
My sense is to agree with that, but so far I don’t have any statistical evidence to prove it. Probably because most rural areas just vote on election day, not early voting.
If it does come thru, all the better for us.
One reason the pollsters may feel less pressure to “get it right” on election day this year is that if they’re way off, they don’t have to be accountable this time. They can just blame us, the voters, for misleading them due to racism.
Don't be afraid to say it! I understand your reluctance...but should McCain win, it will ONLY be because of God's providencial hand in who He chooses to lead this nation. That's what I'm "banking" on at this point.
Young black men are NOT going to show up in the numbers Husseiniacs would like...not gonna happen...
Exactly. There are a lot of folks like your Dad crossing over.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.