This map is old, but you get the picture.
Posted on 10/27/2008 5:42:05 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
One of the mysteries of this campaign year has been why John McCain keeps campaigning in Pennsylvania when the polls show him far behind Barack Obama there—51 percent to 41 percent in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls as I write. A clue comes from the most recent poll there by SurveyUSA, which helpfully provides a regional breakdown of results. SurveyUSA, as it has consistently done, shows McCain running within the margin of error in the southwest (metro Pittsburgh and surroundings) and in the Northeast (Scranton and the anthracite country), which historically are very Democratic areas. Joe Biden's Scranton roots and the support of Scranton-based Bob Casey don't seem to be doing Obama much good there. McCain carries the west-central and south-central areas, as most Republicans do. But he is incredibly weak—behind Obama 64 percent to 32 percent in the southeast, which includes about 40 percent of the state's voters. Most of this area is metropolitan Philadelphia, which George W. Bush lost in 2004 by a 62 percent to 37 percent margin; the remainder is presumably Lehigh, Northampton, Berks, and Lancaster counties, where Bush ran better. The regional breakdown in the most recent Quinnipiac poll tells exactly the same story.
In other words, McCain is running even with or better than Bush in most of Pennsylvania but is running far behind in metro Philly.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
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Same for St. Louis. I heard that the Obama Rally in Philly didn't pack the “house”. Did you have a cold snap?
We heard on the news, MSM, that Obama spoke to an “almost full house” which leads me to believe it wasn't the crowd that they were expecting.
In 2004, Kerry took Bucks County by less than 3% - 51.1% to 48.3%. So at worst Obama is doing slightly better.
Polls are not the same as votes: recall Operation Chaos, PUMAs, and the over-weighting of polls for Democrats.
Think it through.
Cheers!
The math works out to 1.79% to be exact. That is if you spot BHO the 80% in Philly then Mac would have to increase Bush 2004 percentage for the remaining part of the state from 52.27% to 54.06% to win PA EV’s.
I stand corrected 2% over the rest of the state sounds very doable. Provided the PA conservatives wont to win this thing.
If you didn’t already convince me by calling Barone a “moron”, your ALLCAPS and generous use of punctuation has won me over. You are now my Yoda for all Pennsylvania voting information.
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Yes, it was an ABC affiliate in Orlando.
Wonder if this one reason ABC is now refusing to run the Obama Sermon later this week?
Evidently the Obama Team has elected to boycott the Orlando Station......Payback is Sweet!
Not only for the Bradley factor but the union factor where Obama and the Dems support open not closed ballots for unions. Also Coal Country of PA will not go for Obama/Biden after their comments.
I disagree with Barone and believe he has been writing too long inside the beltway to have a clear view of America. Obviously he has not looked at internal numbers of the polls where polling too many Dems and not enough GOP and too many Indys can tilt a poll drastically if only off by 3 or 4 points. To take Quinnipac and Survey USA as polls to cite shows he needs to get out more.
Yeah but impeachedrapist has access to magic polls. Far more accurate than actual polls, or so he believes.
I have stated numerous times there should be a test to be able to vote,ask who is the VP? Half of this country would not know.
no That Michael(The D’s could Have a 8,9 or 10 point advantage)Barone!!!
I wouldn’t want to take Mikey away from you
I obvious you lost going to Punctuation HUH ??? hahahahahahaha
This map is old, but you get the picture.
So in other words we can expect McCain’s returns to outpace polling in the suburbs.
Yep.
You’re bringing back some nice memories. I remember when I had my first beer...
Barone’s a pretty smart guy. I’m guessing what he means by “Metro Philly” is Philadelphia plus two collars of counties rather than just one...Philly was 12% of the vote in ‘04, Delaware-Montgomery-Bucks was 17%, then the next ring (Lehigh-Northampton (which Kerry carried), Berks, and Chester) are another 12%.
Now is it possible that McCain is trailing as badly as Barone says? Hmm...Kerry took about 61% from these counties in ‘04...I suppose it is possible...Bush lost statewide by 150K votes in ‘04...
I don’t anymore. So many ago:>
Yes, but Cubans in Orlando are outnumbered by Ricans 9-1. Osceola County alone has the highest % of Puerto Ricans of any county on the US mainland.
you got one of them for the Jewish and AA.
Hey, you're busting your butt to get Obama/Biden elected, and I'm doing my darnedest to defeat you. And I make no apologies for that.
Ironically, McCain tried to raise questions about problems with Fannie Mae and Freedie Mac, while Obama said nothing and Barney Frank said everything was fine. Why can't McCain run an ad showing footage of him several years ago all but predicting that there would be a crisis?
I remember when you or someone showed me that map a while ago. The Catholic vote is big in PA and OH, but obviously it’s very big in MN and WI as you state. And since many Catholics seem to be sitting in the Undecided column after previously supporting Bush in 2004, I can see why the McCain camp is going after all these states.
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