Posted on 10/27/2008 5:42:05 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
One of the mysteries of this campaign year has been why John McCain keeps campaigning in Pennsylvania when the polls show him far behind Barack Obama there—51 percent to 41 percent in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls as I write. A clue comes from the most recent poll there by SurveyUSA, which helpfully provides a regional breakdown of results. SurveyUSA, as it has consistently done, shows McCain running within the margin of error in the southwest (metro Pittsburgh and surroundings) and in the Northeast (Scranton and the anthracite country), which historically are very Democratic areas. Joe Biden's Scranton roots and the support of Scranton-based Bob Casey don't seem to be doing Obama much good there. McCain carries the west-central and south-central areas, as most Republicans do. But he is incredibly weak—behind Obama 64 percent to 32 percent in the southeast, which includes about 40 percent of the state's voters. Most of this area is metropolitan Philadelphia, which George W. Bush lost in 2004 by a 62 percent to 37 percent margin; the remainder is presumably Lehigh, Northampton, Berks, and Lancaster counties, where Bush ran better. The regional breakdown in the most recent Quinnipiac poll tells exactly the same story.
In other words, McCain is running even with or better than Bush in most of Pennsylvania but is running far behind in metro Philly.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
Perhaps McCain would be far ahead in Pennsylvania if he just insulted them more.
Barones a MORON !!!
Philthy was 29% of the Vote in 2004 not 41% vote You George McGovern Voter in 1972
Michael Barone has an interesting take on the contest for Pennsylvania, which nearly voted for Bush in 2004. McCain is running strongly outside the Philadelphia area, but getting crushed in the city and its suburbs, due largely to the mortgage crisis.
Question: Why did that Philly news station decide to give Biden a tough interview? I follow the conventional wisdom that local news stations that go against the grain like that must have some viewership that would appreciate that.
Thoughts?
LOL, if only the DemocRATS would insult Philadelphia...
Well, that’s a big flaw in his reasoning then.
lol
No he’s is saying that Philthy comprises 41% of the Pa. Vote in 2004 that was 29% of the vote that haven’t increased their % 12% in 4 years BARONE IS AN INSIDE THE BELTWAY MORON
I don’t know. We can only hope that outstate Pennsylvania gives McCain more than the usual Republican vote and that the Philly suburbs come to their senses.
Folks, anyone that votes like that, I call that stupid!!!
Was Barone talking about Philly itself, or the Philadelphia metropolitan area (including suburban Delaware, Chester, and Bucks Counties)?
I SEE STUPID People.....sheesh....this election is certainly clarifying what kind of brains people have....
I am in the Lehigh Valley (about 70 minutes north of Philly) and our street has nearly all McCain signs. The therapist I am going to says her sister is a doctor (?) in Philly and nobody in the office likes Obama.
I am hopeful for PA and think the polls may be way off.
Here in Indiana, I could really get a tingle up my leg for candidates that called me a redneck racist hillbilly moron!
I would have to really early vote.
The majority of the Pollsters lean Leftward, and therefore over sample those respondents who are like minded.
It's really interesting Barone and others don't have the cajones to come out and say this; it may be due to the fear of being disinvited to CNN's The Situation Room to schmooze it up with Wolf Blitzer.
There’s no way that a black Marxist baby-killer named Barack Hussein Obama is running strong in Lancaster County.
I think they define Regions, But I don’t know for sure Because Philly suburbs are a completely different animal the Philly itself
I am surprised that Michael Barone, of all people, would be relying so heavily on SurveyUSA and Quinnapiac polls, both of which are consistently oversampling Democrats and/or undersampling Republicans. I bet McCain is relying instead on his own internal polls. Moreover, if McCain is running even or better than Bush in most of the state (as he should be doing and seems to be doing), but running slightly worse in the Philly area, then the state should still be very close. And Obama cannot afford to lose PA any more than McCain can afford to lose Ohio or Florida.
I think McCain is taking two additional factors into account. One, he does have a specific proposal to help people facing foreclosures. Two, and I keep coming back to this, Hillary trounced Obama in PA. As part of that, Obama underperformed in the Philly area and surrounding areas during the primaries.
You have hit the nail on the head. People are looking for the facts about Obama. The media has not asked the tough questions so far and I do believe that there are a few Hillary supporters in the Filthy area that are not happy about how things turned out. There is an audience in Filthy that wants to see the truth about the media’s Messiah exposed.
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