I am surprised that Michael Barone, of all people, would be relying so heavily on SurveyUSA and Quinnapiac polls, both of which are consistently oversampling Democrats and/or undersampling Republicans. I bet McCain is relying instead on his own internal polls. Moreover, if McCain is running even or better than Bush in most of the state (as he should be doing and seems to be doing), but running slightly worse in the Philly area, then the state should still be very close. And Obama cannot afford to lose PA any more than McCain can afford to lose Ohio or Florida.
I think McCain is taking two additional factors into account. One, he does have a specific proposal to help people facing foreclosures. Two, and I keep coming back to this, Hillary trounced Obama in PA. As part of that, Obama underperformed in the Philly area and surrounding areas during the primaries.
I'm stunned Barone keeps going back to polls that have shown themselves to be far removed from historical precedent. I don't get it. This guy knows more about districts' and precincts' voting histories all across this nation, yet he's apparently ignoring previous outcomes in favor of the "surging Dem turnout." We'll see if he's right or if he's eating a healthy portion of crow for Thanksgiving.
Oh, who am I kidding? If McCain/Palin do win (as I expect they will) the media, and probably most FReepers, will be talking about what an amazing comeback it was. The garbage polls probably won't even be thought of again, until probably the 2010 elections by us.
“should still be very close. And Obama cannot afford to lose PA any more than McCain can afford to lose Ohio or Florida.”
I can’t speak for Ohio, but my gut feeling is Gov. Sarah is going to take Florida.
The key to PA is definitely Philly. Gore beat Bush by 350k in 2000 and Kerry beat Bush by 400k in 2004. That is in just Philly. Dem candidate got 80% of the vote both elections.
If McCain can get 30% of the Philly vote instead of the 20% that Bush got both years then PA should flip to Mac.
If he cannot then I dont see how Mac wins PA