Posted on 10/27/2008 5:42:05 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
One of the mysteries of this campaign year has been why John McCain keeps campaigning in Pennsylvania when the polls show him far behind Barack Obama there—51 percent to 41 percent in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls as I write. A clue comes from the most recent poll there by SurveyUSA, which helpfully provides a regional breakdown of results. SurveyUSA, as it has consistently done, shows McCain running within the margin of error in the southwest (metro Pittsburgh and surroundings) and in the Northeast (Scranton and the anthracite country), which historically are very Democratic areas. Joe Biden's Scranton roots and the support of Scranton-based Bob Casey don't seem to be doing Obama much good there. McCain carries the west-central and south-central areas, as most Republicans do. But he is incredibly weak—behind Obama 64 percent to 32 percent in the southeast, which includes about 40 percent of the state's voters. Most of this area is metropolitan Philadelphia, which George W. Bush lost in 2004 by a 62 percent to 37 percent margin; the remainder is presumably Lehigh, Northampton, Berks, and Lancaster counties, where Bush ran better. The regional breakdown in the most recent Quinnipiac poll tells exactly the same story.
In other words, McCain is running even with or better than Bush in most of Pennsylvania but is running far behind in metro Philly.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
buckwheat??? i am not saying that the polls are not flawed etc. barone is simply referencing the tools at hand and analyzing the data. that is what he does. he is not a pollster, he is an analyst. i am not saying he is flawless and always right either but he is NOT a moron.
personally, i think the polls are definitely wrong in PA and i beleive that mccain can pull an upset. I am personally working for the campaign in PA.
That man is a walkin', talkin' encyclopedia.
If he was REALLY GOOD like you think He would Realized they are OVERSAMPLING BEYOND belief
A democrat hack polling outfit today did a Poll for N.C. & I can’t remember the weighting but it was ridiculously bad
“should still be very close. And Obama cannot afford to lose PA any more than McCain can afford to lose Ohio or Florida.”
I can’t speak for Ohio, but my gut feeling is Gov. Sarah is going to take Florida.
Trust me, I noticed that!
Trust me, the women voters do too.
In other words, McCain will likely lose the state by two and a half points, same as Bush.
My gut feeling is she has already taken Central PA! Intense love for Sarah in these parts. Intensity I've never seen for any other candidate, ever.
You are right about those House races in PA and other places. Unfortunately, it looks like the Alaska Senate seat is now gone. Of all aspects of this election, I worry about the Senate races the most (for the obvious reasons).
On the polls, if McCain/Palin wins (as I also expect), I will not regard it as a comeback either. I will regard it as a center-right electorate (on the order of 50-48 or thereabouts) doing what a center-right electorate would predictably do when given the choice of these two candidates. Elect one of them by about a 51-48 margin or thereabouts. :) The samples used in the many polls that had Obama ahead simply were not representative of actual voters.
The key to PA is definitely Philly. Gore beat Bush by 350k in 2000 and Kerry beat Bush by 400k in 2004. That is in just Philly. Dem candidate got 80% of the vote both elections.
If McCain can get 30% of the Philly vote instead of the 20% that Bush got both years then PA should flip to Mac.
If he cannot then I dont see how Mac wins PA
I think FLA will be fine. My early voting info there may be dated, but McCain is already doing as well as Bush did in early voting. That’s a very good sign. And the state is, demographically speaking, simply too GOP friendly for Obama to win there, IMO.
By improving his margin (over Bush's 2004) in Pittsburgh and western PA (which is almost a given), and by improving turnout in the "T". Also, word is going around that Obama has not provided the normal street money for Philly's GOTV operations. If that's really the case, and Obama doesn't come through, then I'd say he's essentially given up on the state.
Well, after the election, the new dem spent the rainy day surplus on new programs and then went about mandating about $1 billion in new spending. That was followed by a emergency session where the dems raised sales taxes and user fees and other taxes to the tune of over $1.5 billion. Now they're crying about a deficit (meaning more taxes or cutbacks).
As Mencken said, the people usually get the government they deserve. And they deserve to get it good and hard.
In 2004, Kerry took Bucks County by less than 3% - 51.1% to 48.3%. So at worst Obama is doing slightly better.
I was a bit disappointed to see this evening that McCain is going back to Miami for another event. It’s likely to support the two Cuban brothers (I think) Congressional races. The data I’ve been seeing and the word I’ve been hearing is that FL is looking very good for McCain/Palin. So I was surprised to see it back on the schedule. Hopefully it is just supporting the House races.
Yeah, the Senate looks rough. But I’m really not worried about the Dems getting the filibuster proof 60. Coleman and Dole are looking better, Sununu’s supposedly got a slight lead now, and the NRSC and Jindal still think they can knock off Landrieu. A healthy McCain/Palin margin should help matters (depending, of course, on how much of their vote really is from PUMAs). This same healthy national margin could work wonders in the House, which I’m much more optimistic about.
Evidently McCain thinks he has a good chance to win in PA or otherwise he wouldn’t be spending so much time there. (remember McCain gave up on Michigan a few weeks ago, and Obama gave up on several state also.)
McCain may win PA or may loose it (duh). But right now, his polling must show it close. Also Obama’s must show it close, since he is there a lot also.
From the candidates, they think it is VA, PA, OH, FL, and maybe NH and CO. But they seem to be spending most of their time in OH and VA and PA.
McCain may be wrong about the final outcome, but he is not stupidly spending money there.
Remember Obama has had “issues” with PA going back to the primaries. McCain will win just about the entire state except the Philly area. So depends on the margin in Philly vs rest of the state.
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