Posted on 10/27/2008 5:42:05 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
One of the mysteries of this campaign year has been why John McCain keeps campaigning in Pennsylvania when the polls show him far behind Barack Obama there—51 percent to 41 percent in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls as I write. A clue comes from the most recent poll there by SurveyUSA, which helpfully provides a regional breakdown of results. SurveyUSA, as it has consistently done, shows McCain running within the margin of error in the southwest (metro Pittsburgh and surroundings) and in the Northeast (Scranton and the anthracite country), which historically are very Democratic areas. Joe Biden's Scranton roots and the support of Scranton-based Bob Casey don't seem to be doing Obama much good there. McCain carries the west-central and south-central areas, as most Republicans do. But he is incredibly weak—behind Obama 64 percent to 32 percent in the southeast, which includes about 40 percent of the state's voters. Most of this area is metropolitan Philadelphia, which George W. Bush lost in 2004 by a 62 percent to 37 percent margin; the remainder is presumably Lehigh, Northampton, Berks, and Lancaster counties, where Bush ran better. The regional breakdown in the most recent Quinnipiac poll tells exactly the same story.
In other words, McCain is running even with or better than Bush in most of Pennsylvania but is running far behind in metro Philly.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
He’s right. Southeastern PA is part of Megaopolis and has about 40% of the state’s population.
McCain should be running better in the suburbs than he is now, that was where his strength always was as a moderate Republican very similar to the Northeastern tradition.
McCain needs to gain some traction by attacking Obama’s socialism and suburb comment. He also needs a clear economic policy to get America out of this mess. I hope he can pull it off. There are 7 days left.
We’ll know in a week or so who is dished BS and who is not.
“...if only the DemocRATS would insult Philadelphia....”
Philadelphians would not even realize they are being insulted.
No, you didn't read the article. He says that Philly AND the surrounding counties, which used to be Republican, account for 40% of the vote. Those counties around Philly are going to vote Democrat and against their own best interests because they are angry and taking it out on the Republicans because their house values and their 401K's have lost a lot of $.
I'm stunned Barone keeps going back to polls that have shown themselves to be far removed from historical precedent. I don't get it. This guy knows more about districts' and precincts' voting histories all across this nation, yet he's apparently ignoring previous outcomes in favor of the "surging Dem turnout." We'll see if he's right or if he's eating a healthy portion of crow for Thanksgiving.
Oh, who am I kidding? If McCain/Palin do win (as I expect they will) the media, and probably most FReepers, will be talking about what an amazing comeback it was. The garbage polls probably won't even be thought of again, until probably the 2010 elections by us.
I get so sick of hearing about people going for the commiebama because of the economy.
WHY?!?!?!
I know the talking heads say it is because they associate the economic downturn with Bush. Do they really think that an unapologetic MARXIST will be better?!?!?!?
I have never in my entire life been so frustrated at the STUPIDITY of the voters this cycle.
If it is ignorance then that is somewhat forgiveable as it shows a lack of information. In this day and age with the MSM that lack of info is expected. On the other hand there is PLENTY of good info on the web and talk radio.
But ANY voter owes it to themselves and more importantly the country to examine each candidate under a microscope. Have we become so lazy and stupid that we will thrust our country into what could be its demise because we are angry at Bush?!?!
Won’t we even bother to check each candidate thoroughly? How childish and irresponsible to vote on emotions alone.
Wouldn't they do better by poking themselves in the eye with a stick?
I don't think McCain is getting "crushed."
My good friend is running for Penna. State Assembly and has access to the latest polling, and as of about two weeks ago, Obama was up by three points 47-44% in this Bucks County, Pa. district which has a Democrat registration edge.
UMM Watch & see SPARKY Watch & See Conservatives DON’T Answer Pollsters calls
The polls he is taaking as Gospel SurveyUSA which has had a 15% advantage to D’s then R’s when it’s 5%
“My good friend is running for Penna. State Assembly and has access to the latest polling, and as of about two weeks ago, Obama was up by three points 47-44% in this Bucks County, Pa. district which has a Democrat registration edge.”
That’s encouraging news.
I thought PUMA had our back in Philly. Weren’t they planning a big rescue there this week end.
OTAY BUCKWHEAT he is using SurveyUSA & Morniing Call which VASTLY OVERSAMPLE D’s. NEXT ARGUMENT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My neighbor actually made a t-shirt similar to that.
Oh how they forget Palin. Bush had Cheney. I suspect she might gain McCain a few votes that a solid but somewhat unexciting man might not. Just a thought.
Thoughts?
Thoughts? Well, I thought that news station was in Florida for starters.
Oh how they forget Palin. Bush had Cheney. I suspect she might gain McCain a few votes that a solid but somewhat unexciting man might not. Just a thought.
Barone is missing the point that Obama is not your Clintonian, triangulating, centrist Dem.
In addition, the ‘spread the wealth’ line of attack by McCain is not just an attack on tax policy, but an attack on values. But it’s not values as in the social issue sense, but rather in the American dream sense. Now, yes, the declines in home values and stock prices may make some gloomy as to the American dream, I’m not so sure it will make as much of a difference as Barone believes.
It’s one thing to be angry about what’s happened in the housing and stock markets, but is that enough to scrap our way of life altogether and move to an un-American socialist model? What happens when the markets rebound?
There has been one recent poll which showed that Americans still prefer the old model to some kind of heavy redistributive model by a factor of more than 4 to 1. McCain is on the right line of attack. Are we going to change the role of the state with regards to the individual simply because of a downturn?
In addition, for whatever margin Obama may enjoy in SE Pennsylvania, he is giving it up in the rest of PA.
Happened twice. Once in Floridan once in Philly.
Out here in Central PA, we call ourselves redneck gun and Bible clingers. We never knew it was an insult.
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