Posted on 10/27/2008 12:06:03 PM PDT by Chet 99
Monday, October 27, 2008
There are no surprises in California where Barack Obama enjoys a huge lead over John McCain.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of California voters shows Obama leading McCain by 27 percentage points, 61% to 34% (see crosstabs). Obama has led in all nine California polls conducted this year. Earlier this month, McCain reached the 40% level of support for only the second time all year but still trailed by 16.
In California, 45% of voters name economic issues as most important for Election 2008. Domestic issues such as Social Security and health care are seen as most important by 20% while 17% say national security issues are their highest priority.
internals have McCain receiving only 6% of 18-29 voters, 73% of Republicans, Obama getting 93% of Dems.
I hope the totality of Barry’s support comes from deep blue states. I hope he is way up in CA, NY, MA, et al. He can win the general vote for all I care. I just want McPalin to win by 1 vote in each of the states needed to win the EC.
Those numbers look strikingly Bradleyish.
I think Obama needs to be up about 6 to 8 in every state. Or he’s toast.
CA housing prices have tanked, they are half of what they were in 06, its quite affordable now.
Traffic does suck in the large metros, but otherwise there is an incredible network of great roads through fantastic scenery.
Still, I am getting out of here ASAP!
Maybe Obama is trying to run up the national popular vote?
I agree, I know California is liberal but it isn’t THAT liberal.
WTF is wrong with Rasmussen? He is becoming another Zogby.
OStalin has been running a LOT of ads in CA. Either he is just burning up money for the heck of it or he fears he is not doing as well as he thought. I think CA will surprise this year.
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"Hey, can you wait a bit until some of us move to other states before giving CA back to Mexico? Believe it or not, there are a few Republicans/Conservatives in CA!"
Not to mention that Free Republic is based in California and California Freepers always donate the most to FR during Freep-a-thons!
“You would think Rasmussen would be worried about his future in the polling business”
I think Rasmussen is probably sincere. His methodology is off, and most important he has developed no way to cope with conservatives who refuse to be polled.
If California is really completely out of phase with the rest of the country, could it be that the national polls are out of whack if they poll too many folks in California?
If California is really completely out of phase with the rest of the country, could it be that the national polls are out of whack if they poll too many folks in California?
Actually, think about.
That's VERY good news.
If McCain takes huge losses in CA, IL, and NY then all he loses are those electoral votes, no matter what Hussein's margin of victory is.
In other words, he could lose the popular vote by 3-4% and still win the election by winning the battleground states.
“After a victorious showing in the Iowa caucuses, where votes were cast publicly, polls predicted that Obama would also capture the New Hampshire Democratic primary election by a large margin over Hillary Clinton, a white senator. However, Clinton defeated Obama by three points in the New Hampshire race, where ballots were cast secretly, immediately initiating suggestions by some analysts that the Bradley effect may have been at work.”
Huge numbers in CA will boost the national average, but do nothing for the other state races. In order to get a REAL idea how well the candidates are doing a poll should only target people in states that have a less than 10 point spread.
Rasmussen has officially jumped the shark.
The (sarcasm off) wasn’t even needed. Why ANYONE would believe that Communist Californication is so great reminds me of the child playing in the mudhole who had never been to the beach rejecting the offer because he had never know anything better.
A little cocktail-napkin math (well, it's always cocktail hour somewhere)... Rasmussen has Obama up 62-37 in California, and 51-46 nationally. Let's arbitrarily split the undecideds down the middle (though I think they will tilt toward McCain). That gives us a 63.5 to 36.5 split in California, and a 52.5 to 47.5 split nationally. California will cast about 12% of the national vote. So, assuming these figures are correct (a mighty big assumption, granted), what would the margin in the other 49 states (+DC) be?
Using Obama's projected figures:
(.635)(.12) + (.88)(x) = .525, where x represents Obama's percentage in all states except California. So, x = .51. In other words, in theory, Obama leads by a 51-49 margin ex-California. Throw in a couple of other states where Obama will run up big margins (New York and Illinois, for example), and the math begins to look more promising for McCain.
Lose a few states by huge margins, but win more states by smaller margins.
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