If the AP is correct, Barack Obama’s base problem is very serious

The Collins Report ^ | Oct. 23, 2008 | Kevin “Coach” Collins

[jmaroneps37]

A recent AP poll screamed trouble for Barack Obama.

It reported his base support to be just 80%. If this is accurate, and that is a very big IF, he can not win.

Last June when former Hillary Clinton supporters were asked, 58% supported Obama. But the same survey also showed 21% voting for John McCain. A follow-up survey of the very same people showed support for McCain had grown to 28% while remaining stagnant at 58% for Obama. The undecideds seem to be moving to McCain.

These numbers have been swept under the rug by the media, but they are still very important.

During the Democratic primaries, exit polls showed a consistent core of 20% that would not be voting for Obama in the general election.

Whether Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos can be blamed for this distressing news for Obama can be debated, but it doesn’t completely explain away the numbers in the face of subsequent polls showing the same results.

If Obama is getting just 80% of Democrat support he is in trouble. A base support this low can not be overcome and will not get Obama elected. Almost all polls of rank and file Democrats have shown Obama’s base support in the eighties and mid seventies.

In 2000 Al Gore got 92% and lost. In 2004 John Kerry got 89% and lost by a clear margin.

There would have to be a huge difference in party identification to pull Obama through with just 80% of his base. The reported split among Independents doesn’t help either.

A September AP poll of Democratic and Independent likely voters showed that 1/3 hold negative views of Blacks. The same surveyed showed that 40% of all Americans have negative views toward Blacks. Is it that hard to believe the 80% support level?

[taildragger]

don’t believe in the Bradley effect. Rather, I believe when a Democrat is called by a pollster, he or she is more afraid to admit they are voting for McCain than they are to admit they will not vote for Obama. Because in the back of their minds, they fear the person on the other end KNOWS they are a Democrat and thus will put them on the black list, so to speak, if they admit to supporting McCain. Make sense?

Bingo Edit....

Especially if they work in a Federal Job, Municipality, or belong to a Union. Talk to someone who works for Uncle Sugar and the political correctness crap they deal with, say something wrong your life is a living hell. I never participate in polls anymore, With caller ID, any funny area codes show up I let it go. One time I got one and 3/4 of the way through was a question that didn't fit; do you have any guns? I told them goodbye at that point, never again, you don't know who truly is on the other end. Ditto that people coming around to your door, I had one recently, regret telling him the truth, who was he really (union doup for sure...).

[Mr. Brightside]

Here is the problem I see with Obama’s “base.”

I have doubts that they will even show up to the polls.

I have hired many minimum wage people. Usually, I have to hire at least TWO just so ONE shows up on the first day of work. Then I can’t get them to do anything when they show up.

I have others who are customers and fail to show up for appointments. Fail to make their scheduled payments.

So I have doubts that all of his people will even show.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Unfortunately, we’ll get a vacation until January, but then the next fight begins, which is trying to stop President John Sidney McCain from all the idiotic things that he wants to do. :)

[mlocher]

McCain has done a poor job of defining himself as a true Reagan conservative ...

McCain is not a Reagan conservative, although he is a very honest and honorable man.

McCain has finally figured it out, but he has done so very late, after impressions are already fairly hardened. He squandered the entire summer allowing 0bama to redefine himself as a mainstream, middle of the road politician.

Joe the Plumber and Biden's remarks about an Int'l crisis have done in the Obama campaign. Literally, Obama and Biden have self destructed. To his credit, McCain has run with these themes. I agree with you that early on, he did not do enough to paint Obama as a tax and spend liberal.

McCain seemed to know what he wanted to differentiate between he and Obama. "Nation first", "Fight corruption", "Foreign policy" and "Character". For whatever reason, however, until the last 2 weeks, he has failed in his tactics to get his point across. He has pulled some punches that should have been easily landed.

[Lucas McCain]

I think the Bradley effect may be at work in this sense: many people who intend to vote for McCain are telling the pollsters that they are undecided.

[Non-Sequitur]

If the AP is correct, Barack Obama’s base problem is very serious.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

It was 46% in the last poll I saw. It’s been between 45-47% consistently.

Rove says that there has only been one candidate with comparable ‘not qualified’ numbers: Mike Dukakis

[mlocher]

Slowly but surely the wolf in sheep's clothing is being shown for who he is. Much of the base will stick by him -- hatred for Republicans, party affiliation and a belief that the MSM is smearing Obama (go figure). But the more that is exposed, the more of his supporters are jumping ship.

I think many peopel are also seeing that this race is about race. And I think more people are beginning to see what a sham the MSM is.

[Dustoff45]

I believe when a Democrat is called by a pollster, he or she is more afraid to admit they are voting for McCain than they are to admit they will not vote for Obama. Because in the back of their minds, they fear the person on the other end KNOWS they are a Democrat and thus will put them on the black list, so to speak, if they admit to supporting McCain.

You are so right. If Obama wins, folks say we are headed for the most politically correct government ever.

We don't know the full agenda of pollsters. They are asking about some of our most private decisions. They have a record of our comments. We don't know how that record will be used after the call is finished.

Besides, a lot of us took a lesson from "Operation Chaos". The only poll that counts comes on the first Tuesday of November, every four years.

[wmfights]

McCain has done a poor job of defining himself as a true Reagan conservative...

I don't think he is, but he's the best we've got right now.

McCain has done such a poor job of defining 0bama a the unacceptable radical leftist that he is, that he’s lost much of the RINO elites to 0bama...

The rino's are just showing their true colors. However, the mushy moderates are coming around after bambi's "spread the wealth around" comment. I think even they realize how dangerous that slippery slope of redistribution is.

[apillar]

I think Obama’s camp must realize they are in more trouble than anyone thinks. Now they are trying to scare people into supporting Obama by putting out these stories about the police preparing for riots and civil unrest on election night. Oh, the stories never mention Obama’s brothas...ummm...base., but I somehow doubt that the police are worried that McCain voters are going to be rioting throughout small towns in Texas if the election doesn't go his way...

[ScottSS]

If a pollster calls you - you are not anonymous, they have your name, phone # and address aready. They may have your credit report. know where your kids go to school , and how you voted in the last election.

[KevinB]

...knowing our futures are secure with President elect John Sidney McCain.

I agree it would be better for McCain to win, but I wouldn't go that far.

[KevinB]

If you have run a small business you know you have to keep your politics to yourself.

For the life of me I can't figure out why small businesses get in the middle of this stuff. There are two eateries located on Main street in my small town which are proudly displaying pro Obama signs. I will make a point never to patronize either of them again. Very stupid on their part.

[MrB]

This election IS

Life Vs Death
Good Vs Evil

It’s been apparent, and becoming more apparent all the time.

The way Satan’s minions on the left and in the media attacked someone that was obviously, but not in your face, a Christian.

The FOCA. Man, is THIS thing evil or what? Everything about it is to increase the number of abortions. The DNC took out the words “safe, legal, and rare” and inserted “regardless of ability to pay.

[MrB]

That, and you never know if it’s REALLY a pollster or just an 0bama activist that will report you to the secret service if you answer the wrong way.

[ObamaandAyersaTerroristsBFFL]

My mother was polled Thursday. She’s a Dem, supported Hillary. She told the pollster she’s voting McCain because of his experience and she trusts him to protect America. Told the pollster she “doesn’t trust Obama and he hasn’t done 1 damn thing to deserve to be President”.

[MooseChic]

I’ve posted this before and posting it again. Obama will not get 20% of Dem votes. I did a hypothetical study of what will happen if Obama gets only 90% of votes Kerry got in 2004. See the results. Hope it comes true on the electon night.
Actual votes
PA- Bush 2,793,847 Kerry 2,938,095
WI- Bush 1,478,120 Kerry 1,489,504
MN- Bush 1,346,695 Kerry 1,445,014
MI- Bush 2,313,746 Kerry 2,479,183
Then, I reduced Kerry’s votes just by 10%. See how it looks now
PA- McCain 2,793,847 Obama 2,644,286
WI- McCain 1,478,120 Obama 1,340,554
MN- McCain 1,346,695 Obama 1,300,513
MI- McCain 2,313,746 Obama 2,231,265
John McCain will win all these 4 states narrowly. Add to this the Bradley effect. Looks good to me.

[Magnatron]

If Obama loses this election, it will absolutely be due to racism. But while that racism will be blamed on the Republicans, it should be laid completely at the Democrats feet.

Republicans will not vote for Obama because he just doesn’t represent our views. Most Democrats, on the other hand, stand for everything Obama represents. What other argument could be made for their lack of support other than racism?

The Democrat party has been - and will always be - the party of racism in America.

[Little Ray]

I believe in the “shy Tory” effect. When a pollster calls a liberal, he blabs his head off. When a pollster calls a conservative, he’s likely to hang up on him.