Posted on 10/24/2008 4:50:32 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
A recent AP poll screamed trouble for Barack Obama.
It reported his base support to be just 80%. If this is accurate, and that is a very big IF, he can not win.
Last June when former Hillary Clinton supporters were asked, 58% supported Obama. But the same survey also showed 21% voting for John McCain. A follow-up survey of the very same people showed support for McCain had grown to 28% while remaining stagnant at 58% for Obama. The undecideds seem to be moving to McCain.
These numbers have been swept under the rug by the media, but they are still very important.
During the Democratic primaries, exit polls showed a consistent core of 20% that would not be voting for Obama in the general election.
Whether Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos can be blamed for this distressing news for Obama can be debated, but it doesn’t completely explain away the numbers in the face of subsequent polls showing the same results.
If Obama is getting just 80% of Democrat support he is in trouble. A base support this low can not be overcome and will not get Obama elected. Almost all polls of rank and file Democrats have shown Obama’s base support in the eighties and mid seventies.
In 2000 Al Gore got 92% and lost. In 2004 John Kerry got 89% and lost by a clear margin.
There would have to be a huge difference in party identification to pull Obama through with just 80% of his base. The reported split among Independents doesn’t help either.
A September AP poll of Democratic and Independent likely voters showed that 1/3 hold negative views of Blacks. The same surveyed showed that 40% of all Americans have negative views toward Blacks. Is it that hard to believe the 80% support level?
(Excerpt) Read more at Collinsreport.net ...
Obama is the death candidate. Death to those who won’t reeducate. Death to those babies who manage to survive thier mother’s attempts to abort. Death to those who dare not understand Barack’s genius. Death death death.
Fox News Radio reported Obama spent ONE HOUR with GRANDMA and left. Just like his August visit.
I don’t believe in the Bradley effect.
Rather, I believe when a Democrat is called by a pollster, he or she is more afraid to admit they are voting for McCain than they are to admit they will not vote for Obama.
Because in the back of their minds, they fear the person on the other end KNOWS they are a Democrat and thus will put them on the black list, so to speak, if they admit to supporting McCain.
Make sense?
One more week folks. One more week and we can remove this nightmare and go Christmas shopping with happiness, knowing our futures are secure with President elect John Sidney McCain.
When he left did anyone look to see what has he got in his pocketses.
He put his fingers around her neck, shook her violently while screaming: “Don’t tell them where my birth certificate is!”
Glad to see this. It mirrors what I thought when I saw Time Magazine’s poll two weeks ago that claimed Obama was up by 6 over McCain. But the internals told a story that this post seems to echo. Time oversampled Democrats in their poll by 11% (41-30) with the rest of the 29% “independents”. Imagine that - Obama could only manage a lead of barely half of the oversampling margin. Which told me one of two things was true: either the Hillary supporters are basically telling Obama to pound sand & won’t vote for him; or all the Democrats are in line together but the independents are almost all breaking for McCain.
Either way, the Time poll was not good news for the Obama camp, in my view.
Rove mentioned a stat that actually went up that’s the most teling indictment of Obama: 45% (up from 44%) do NOT believe he’s qualified to be president. Haven’t seen any stats on this in about 10 days - anyone know where that number is now?
60% of Americans are self identified ‘conservatives.’
This is why a true Reagan conservative running against a clearly defined liberal/socialist/leftist will always win.
McCain has done a poor job of defining himself as a true Reagan conservative or 0bama as a liberal/socialist/leftist.
McCain has finally figured it out, but he has done so very late, after impressions are already fairly hardened. He squandered the entire summer allowing 0bama to redefine himself as a mainstream, middle of the road politician.
This is why so many people who consider themselves to be ‘conservative’ (but mostly still Democrats) find 0bama acceptable enough to vote for. McCain has done such a poor job of defining 0bama a the unacceptable radical leftist that he is, that he’s lost much of the RINO elites to 0bama, even. And these are people who for the most part steadfastly stood by Bush.
McCain needs to realign his attacks on 0bama’s associations, not as “he hasn’t been completely forthcoming on the relationship” but instead as connecting the ideological dots. All of 0bama’s controversial associations are with people on the extreme radical left. McCain should call them 0bama’s ‘BRAINTRUST’.
Socialist leaders see themselves the personal providers of every necessity of life to the population they rule. When the demands of that population exceed the productive capacity of that leader and the state apparatus he commands, he starts looking for ways to reduce the demand.
His attitude soon enough becomes "there are too many mouths to feed." He says to himself "where did all these new people come from? I didn't ask for them to be born. I can't be expected to save everyone."
Only under capitalism are additional people not seen as burdens but as opportunities.
Socialism inevitably comes to see them as a problem to be solved. That solution is seen as messy and unpleasant, but necessary. Like culling the herd. The price of power, I'm sure you understand.
He stuffed the new BC in Sandy Berger’s socks..
You bet. Your hypothesis makes a lot of sense to me.
Very interesting post....we’ve definitely seen an “uptick” from the media on the rhetoric that Obama is winning in a landslide.....maybe he’s not.....
Not hard to understand. If I were called I'd say I'm voting for Obama to screw their polls but be honest about my political beliefs...
“I could understand this sort of reaction if they were being polled on the street, but not anonymously over the phone.”
In this day and age, you are not anonymous over the phone.
Which goes to show it simply was a touchy-feely media event and the MSM sucked it up just like the Obama campaign hoped they would.
Well, really, how much do they have in common anymore?
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