Posted on 10/22/2008 6:32:21 AM PDT by tatown
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. Obama has now enjoyed a modest lead every day for nearly a month.
It is difficult to overstate the stability of this campaign ever since the events on Wall Street brought a new wave of economic anxiety to the fore. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the Wall Street debacle, McCain held a very slight lead in the polls. Immediately afterwards, the race became more of a referendum on the Bush Administration and Obama moved ahead. The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.
For the past eleven days, Obama has been at the 50% or 51% level of support every day in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. During those same eleven days, McCain has been at 45% or 46% every day and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and six percentage points.
If you go back a couple of weeks further, the results are pretty much the same. It’s now been 27 days since Obama’s support moved below 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points (see trends).
Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama with an 86.0 % chance of winning in November (see market expectations for key states).
Tracking Poll results are released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 54% say the same about John McCain. Those figures include 41% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 26% who say the same about McCain (see trends).
Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say the economy is the top issue of Election 2008 while 19% name national security. Eleven percent (11%) say fiscal issues such as taxes and spending are the highest priority while 10% look primarily to domestic issues such as Social Security and health care. Only 7% name cultural issues as most important.
Polling released yesterday for West Virginia and South Carolina show McCain leading in both. New state polling results were released earlier this week for Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. See a video overview of the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Battleground State polls.
Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
Take a moment to predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year.
Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. During the final two months of Election 2008, party weighting targets are updated each Sunday (see additional information). For polling data released during the week of October 19-25, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.7% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls, our Quick Campaign Overview and a 50-State Summary of the Presidential Race.
“So celebreate on the unemployment line!”
And thus the fruits of socialism. Wish that would get out to the electorate. To simplify it for the room-temp IQ’d voter, “when Obama takes money away from rich people, they will find some way to get it back. That means lost jobs.”
And of course the dimwit voter will respond, “but i’m-a git me a guh-mint check!”
What is better for the media right now? For McCain to be ahead (the old white candidate) or the first African American candidate?
Also, it is better for the media if Obama is ahead in the polls on election day, that way if he loses than can have their many many many news cycles about racism and riots.
This way, if he wins or loses, the media will be in hog heaven.
Heard McCain interview this morning. He said that in 2004 it was Kerry +13 over Bush at this point in one of the polls. This is a close race, and daily roller coaster angst just isn’t worth it.
I wonder if the pollsters have cooked in the "Powell bounce" on their own, assuming there should be one even if there isn't.
Gotta hand it to lib establishment — they’ve done a helluva job dumbing America down.
I think McCain is stretching really hard with that statement.
I was at a library yesterday where they were doing one stop voting. These college aged punks were wheeling in old people in chairs and beds. I walked by and said “Bring out your dead for Obama.”
I will vote straight ticket, but I’m afraid this race is over.
Gallup Expanded was +4 on Saturday, never closer than that.
Gallup does not fix party weights in advance, so their polls are very sensitive to shifts in voter mood. Probably Powell endorsement registered in their trackers.
I think right now McCain is in Dole territory. Dole lost by 8.5, perhaps McCain is doing a tiny bit better, but not by much.
Yeah — stretching a long way. Maybe he was talking about a CA or MA poll. Nothing national had a wide spread at all.
State polls are all that matter now. Don’t let national numbers worry you.
Remember the Electoral College.
thank you mr gloom and doom
how come u only show up in poll threads?
How did you learn about the individual samples from Monday and Tuesday?
Dear patients, due to the proposed tax increases by the Obama administration I am forced to raise my fees. I am sorry to do this but it is necessary to provide you with the best standard of care
This form of passive resistance needs to be done in all small businesses in America. If they won't hear , then they will pay and learn the hard way. I know we can't divine peoples political leaning but where that is apparent I am sure CEOs will make it a point to let Dem leaning employees go. So Obama koolaid drinkers, think long and hard before you think you are going to stick it to the man. You might be the one actually bending over for the soap.
“Heard McCain interview this morning. He said that in 2004 it was Kerry +13 over Bush at this point in one of the polls.”
If McCain really said that he is just blowing smoke. Why would he state something that is so clearly wrong? The polls were virtually ALL pro-Bush at this time of the cycle. Here are ALL 2004 national polls from 9/1 forward to election day:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
I can’t IMAGINE what McCain would be thinking, claiming that polling was pro-Kerry in 2004, and even showed a 13% Kerry lead at this point in 2004. The opposite is true. Almost every poll showed Bush ahead for the entire 9/1 through 11/1 time frame. Look for yourself.
In September, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased a percentage point from 33.2% in August to 34.4% in September.
During that same period, the number of Democrats declined slightly from 38.9% to 38.4.%. The remainder, 27.2%, are not affiliated with either major political party.
That gives the Democrats a net advantage of 4.0 percentage points, down from 5.7 percentage points in August.
Look at how he has shifted his sampling with his most recent polling effort:
For polling data released during the week of October 19-25, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.7% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated.
A 5.7% Dem advantage in August, a 4.0% Dem advantage in September, and a 6.7% advantage in October... Like I said earlier, he is using his SECRET SAUCE!!
“I will vote straight ticket, but I’m afraid this race is over”
Sounds like the band is tuning up to play “Autumn”....
- John
(that was the final tune the Titanic’s band completed before it sank)
Rasmussen ....ROFL ROFL ROFL
What a joke
>> how come u only show up in poll threads?
because this is is what I find interesting to discuss here.
If you want my encouragement to vote and donate - here it is. I already did both.
But please, donate to our Senate candidates, not McCain. Coleman in MN and Chambliss in GA actually have a chance, McCain does not, imo.
Easy now. I know some little ole ladies for Hillary that are voting Palin.
Maybe, but I am intrigued by the distinct disconnect between Obama’s polling numbers showing him leading in states where Hillary beat him by double digits in the primaries. McCain-Palin is not Dole-Kemp. There is a lot more energy in the McCain-Palin campaign, and there are very distinct philisophical differences between the candidates. Clinton essentially ran as a moderate, and still never broke the 50% barrier. Obama has a much more liberal platform, but I do agree that McCain needs to do a better job pointing this out to the electorate.
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