How did you learn about the individual samples from Monday and Tuesday?
It is really just my rolling estimate of rasmussen's raw data started from a period when both candidates were stable for a period of 5 days. I have no doubt my estimated raw numbers don't match ras's. But they help anticipate trends. In a three day rolling average poll, what falls off a poll can be just as important as what comes onto the poll. In the Ras poll, McCain had great polling days on Saturday and Sunday. Saturday's numbers fell off today's average, and Sunday's numbers fall off tomorrow. For the last three days I show McCain at 48 - 40 - 47 and Obama at 50 - 50 - 53. With that in mind, I suspect McCain's numbers will drop tomorrow. But note that he's actually gained 7 in the last two days in my estimate. Again, with a rolling poll what falls off can have more of an impact than what enters. I don't know what will enter, but I can make an educated guess at what is falling off. If McCain stays even tomorrow, that is GREAT news because the next day, a terrible day falls off for him.
Incidently, looking at the Gallup and Zogby polls, I suspect the Gallup poll will tighten today. Obama is losing one of his best days ever. Same for Zogby.