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Charlie Cook Calls the Race for Obama
Forbes ^ | 10/21/08 | staff

Posted on 10/21/2008 8:50:58 AM PDT by pissant

Charlie Cook, founder of The Cook Report and a columnist for The National Journal called the race for Obama this morning, and for congressional Democrats who he thinks will take at least 7 Senate and 20 House seats.

"...today it seems very unlikely that the focal point of this election is going to shift away from the economy. And as long as the economy is the focal point, it's difficult to see how this gets any better for Republicans up or down the ballot. It's sobering to think of the magnitude an event would have to have to pull voters minds off the economy..." Cook wrote.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption
KEYWORDS: antichrist; charliecook; democratcheerleader; kook; larrysinclairslover; obama
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Wow. What a smart man.
1 posted on 10/21/2008 8:50:59 AM PDT by pissant
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To: pissant

Replay from 2004:

Charlie Cook: ‘Looks good for Kerry’

In his weekly e-mail column Off to the Races, NATIONAL JOURNAL political scientist Charlie Cook looks at a stable race with a very few volatile voters available to be won by the eventual victory.

This is certainly not to predict that Bush is going to lose, that this race is over or that other events and developments will not have an enormous impact on this race. The point is that this race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists. But in a typically Republican fashion, they are too polite and disciplined to talk about it much publicly.

In a funny way, if this race were bouncing around, it would probably be a better sign for President Bush. It would suggest that there was some volatility to the race and that public attitudes had not yet hardened, and were thus still an eminently fixable situation. The dynamics of a presidential race usually do not change much between July and Election Day. This year, however, the race is much more stable than usual, which is ominous for an incumbent under these circumstances. The bottom line is that this presidential race is not over, but the outlook is not so great for the players in the red jerseys.

http://www.rightsided.org/index.php/2004/07/charlie-cook-looks-good-for-kerrybloggerblogger/


2 posted on 10/21/2008 8:51:58 AM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: pissant

Here’s all you need to know.

http://www-cgi.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/analysis/bios/frames/cnn/cook.html

A native of Shreveport, LA, Cook came to Washington in September of 1972 to attend Georgetown University where he studied American government. He worked on Capitol Hill for Sen. Bennett Johnston (D- LA), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Policy Committee. He has also worked on campaigns at the congressional, senatorial and presidential levels. In addition, he worked as a pollster and campaign consultant and on the staff of BUILD-PAC, the political action committee of the National Association of Home Builders. He received a bachelor’s degree from Georgetown University.


3 posted on 10/21/2008 8:52:47 AM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: pissant
Good catch.
4 posted on 10/21/2008 8:52:51 AM PDT by TexasNative2000 (Be bold. Be brave. You're an American.)
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To: pissant

You are always right on top of things!


5 posted on 10/21/2008 8:52:57 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: pissant

I love this ploy. All these pundits calling the election 2 weeks out. Ain’t gonna work.


6 posted on 10/21/2008 8:53:27 AM PDT by Right Brother
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To: pissant
I remember the day Kerry conceded he cried.
7 posted on 10/21/2008 8:54:10 AM PDT by Perdogg (Raila Amollo Odinga - community organizer)
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To: pissant

I still remember the McLaughlin Group that aired pre-1994 Congressional elections.

They were dividing the pie up and in both houses had Dem majorities resulting. We all know how that turned out.

I have no doubt that the Do-Nothing Dem Congress will expand and I don’t need Eleanor Clift to tell me that.

The RNC has been AWOL on the Congressional front. Perhaps they are spending all their cash on the follow-up junk mail but their ‘campaign’ has been anything but.


8 posted on 10/21/2008 8:54:27 AM PDT by relictele
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To: pissant

Funny, the pollsters are trying to be “first” and the race at best is a toss up, Cook and the room temp IQ mo-ron on M(essiah)SNBC said the race was over two weeks ago.

For me, now the American People will have to look at the Communist, and then McCain and ask themselves some hard questions.

The race is just beginning to become interesting, the B$ has stopped and people are voting.


9 posted on 10/21/2008 8:55:11 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: pissant

I was at a conference in D.C. right before the 1994 election. Charlie Cook was the guest speaker and told the gathering that the Democrats would hold on to both House and Senate and might even gain a few seats. Sorry, Charlie, but you should have kept your mouth shut then and you really should now. The guy has no credibility.


10 posted on 10/21/2008 8:56:25 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: pissant

Maybe/Hopefully all these “it’s in the bag for Obama” predictions will convince a significant number of Dems who usually aren’t inclined to vote that their individual votes aren’t needed.


11 posted on 10/21/2008 8:57:08 AM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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To: pissant

Remembering when Brokaw, et al, called Florida for Gore - saying, in effect, that the election was over - and caused some folks to stay home and not vote.

This election isn’t over ‘til the polls close (and maybe not then if there’s too much hanky-panky goin’ on), no matter who “calls” it.


12 posted on 10/21/2008 8:57:54 AM PDT by LucyJo
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To: abb

A Carville bud, huh?


13 posted on 10/21/2008 9:00:01 AM PDT by LucyJo
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To: pissant

“Dewey defeats Truman”


14 posted on 10/21/2008 9:00:35 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: pissant

I do worry about the senate. I worry a great deal in fact.


15 posted on 10/21/2008 9:01:15 AM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
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To: Mr. Mojo
Maybe/Hopefully all these “it’s in the bag for Obama” predictions will convince a significant number of Dems who usually aren’t inclined to vote that their individual votes aren’t needed.

Right. The mile wide and inch deep support for Obama which consists of many who have never even voted before (and I don't mean Mickey Mouse) may opt to not bother to vote if it looks like Obama has it in the bag. Meanwhile the GOP is mobilized to defeat socialism, defend the American Dream, and put Gov. Palin in a position to run for the presidency herself one day.


16 posted on 10/21/2008 9:02:33 AM PDT by Harry Wurzbach (Joe The Plumber & Rep. Thaddeus McCotter are my heroes.)
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To: pissant

Last time I saw Charlie Cook, he looked like someone who needed an immediate padlock on his refrigerator.


17 posted on 10/21/2008 9:02:54 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy (tHE)
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To: pissant

Guess Charlie hasn’t been paying attention the past few days. McCain has been making the economy the centrepiece of his campaign, and it’s paying off.


18 posted on 10/21/2008 9:05:13 AM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Here they come boys! As thick as grass, and as black as thunder!)
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To: Perdogg
Are you serious?

Wow.

Hey Obamabots, your candidate is a liar and a FRAUD!!!!

The recent relevation regarding the Berg Case solidifies that.

Obama is a LIAR, CHEATER AND FRAUD!!!!!!!!!


19 posted on 10/21/2008 9:06:11 AM PDT by Prole (Please pray for the families of Chris and Channon. May God always watch over them.)
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To: Right Brother

He then declared: “The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over, it’s only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn’t that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one. First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win. Sure, we have seen come-from-behind victories, but they didn’t come back this far this late.”

And the polls are swinging around wildly based on nothing more then every day events, that suggests that people have not made up their minds.

“Cook also dismisses the “Bradley Effect” where voters tell pollsters that they’ll vote for an African American but then don’t: “putting aside the question of whether it ever existed, it hasn’t been seen in at least 15 years and the likely surge in turnout among African-American and young people seems sufficient to offset it anyway.”

This is quite damming, Cook dismisses the Bradley Effect, then he tries to mitigate it via the youth vote.

Mr. Cook is not being objective, he cannot dismiss the Bradley Effect, then suggest that a Bradley Effect would be canceled by the youth vote, the Effect exists, or it does not.


20 posted on 10/21/2008 9:06:53 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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