Replay from 2004:
Charlie Cook: ‘Looks good for Kerry’
In his weekly e-mail column Off to the Races, NATIONAL JOURNAL political scientist Charlie Cook looks at a stable race with a very few volatile voters available to be won by the eventual victory.
This is certainly not to predict that Bush is going to lose, that this race is over or that other events and developments will not have an enormous impact on this race. The point is that this race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists. But in a typically Republican fashion, they are too polite and disciplined to talk about it much publicly.
In a funny way, if this race were bouncing around, it would probably be a better sign for President Bush. It would suggest that there was some volatility to the race and that public attitudes had not yet hardened, and were thus still an eminently fixable situation. The dynamics of a presidential race usually do not change much between July and Election Day. This year, however, the race is much more stable than usual, which is ominous for an incumbent under these circumstances. The bottom line is that this presidential race is not over, but the outlook is not so great for the players in the red jerseys.
http://www.rightsided.org/index.php/2004/07/charlie-cook-looks-good-for-kerrybloggerblogger/
Here’s all you need to know.
http://www-cgi.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/analysis/bios/frames/cnn/cook.html
A native of Shreveport, LA, Cook came to Washington in September of 1972 to attend Georgetown University where he studied American government. He worked on Capitol Hill for Sen. Bennett Johnston (D- LA), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Policy Committee. He has also worked on campaigns at the congressional, senatorial and presidential levels. In addition, he worked as a pollster and campaign consultant and on the staff of BUILD-PAC, the political action committee of the National Association of Home Builders. He received a bachelor’s degree from Georgetown University.
I love this ploy. All these pundits calling the election 2 weeks out. Ain’t gonna work.
I still remember the McLaughlin Group that aired pre-1994 Congressional elections.
They were dividing the pie up and in both houses had Dem majorities resulting. We all know how that turned out.
I have no doubt that the Do-Nothing Dem Congress will expand and I don’t need Eleanor Clift to tell me that.
The RNC has been AWOL on the Congressional front. Perhaps they are spending all their cash on the follow-up junk mail but their ‘campaign’ has been anything but.
Maybe/Hopefully all these “it’s in the bag for Obama” predictions will convince a significant number of Dems who usually aren’t inclined to vote that their individual votes aren’t needed.
Remembering when Brokaw, et al, called Florida for Gore - saying, in effect, that the election was over - and caused some folks to stay home and not vote.
This election isn’t over ‘til the polls close (and maybe not then if there’s too much hanky-panky goin’ on), no matter who “calls” it.
“Dewey defeats Truman”
I do worry about the senate. I worry a great deal in fact.
Last time I saw Charlie Cook, he looked like someone who needed an immediate padlock on his refrigerator.
Guess Charlie hasn’t been paying attention the past few days. McCain has been making the economy the centrepiece of his campaign, and it’s paying off.
In 1980, some polls taken within two weeks of the election had Carter up by as much as 10%. Charlie needs to go back and redo his homework.
That’s funny, Charlie, because by my calendar, the people HAVE NOT SPOKEN YET.
Methinks Chuckles hasn’t kept up with the latest news.
The Democrats are the INCUMBENTS, very unpopular, and have done the WRONG THING. IF WE WANT CHANGE FROM THIS INCOMPETENT CONGRESS, WE NEED TO DEFEAT THE DEMOCRATS:
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/10/change-we-need-defeat-democrat-congress.html
and memo to Cook ... it’s not over - not YET:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2111111/posts
Bookmark for November 5th.
I often disagree with Charlie, but I learned the hard way never to make a bet with him. Its odd that he is making the call this early, he usually waits until about 24 - 48 hours out and has been pretty close on those calls, albeit his earlier comments have often been off the mark, as is true with most of the pundits.
In this case, I would have to agree with him, especially on the House and Senate if the election were today. Fortunately, the election is not today and while a candidate this far behind at this stage may never have made up the gap, this is not a normal election and lots of people have deep seated doubts about the CHOSEN ONE. Can those doubts about BHO be translated into votes for McCain? We’ll see. Certainly hope so.