they always oversample RATS, but, the good news is... he's STILL WINNING or in a Statistical TIE even with the oversampling. 8^)
Posted on 10/20/2008 4:41:21 PM PDT by mvred.com
I did a week long study on polls and how Democrats are being oversampled in every single battleground state. I calculated the state of the race with a few methods you can read about at the link I posted. The race is far from over. McCain is within 2.77 points in every single must win state he has.
Check it out and email to your friends and post on other blogs. I want to make it known that this race is neck and neck!!!
Link: The Inaccuracy of Political Polling in 2008
Demoncrats do out number Republicans. That is WHY the numbers are more skewed.
They are oversampling Democrats because there are in fact more registered Ds than registered Rs. It only stands to reason that their samples will reflect the partisan ID amongst the general public. Why does everyone have such a hard time with that? The Ds spent all their primary registering new voters - millions of them.
Yet not everyone who registers to vote (see: ACORN, Operation Chaos, New Voters) will vote.
This is why the Likely Voter “Special Sauce” is important. Frankly, this election I have no idea what the turnout will be.
Palin has excited the Conservative Base. Obama has excited the African Americans, Many are disaffected with the GOP being in power, etc...
Who the heck knows!
Other reasons dim numbers are up: ACORN and Operation Chaos.
Didn’t a lot of Republicans re-register as Dems for Operation Chaos? Not sure on what scale that was. Anyone know if that could be a factor?
There is good reason to ascertain that many have stopped being Republican AND that this is significantly oversampled.
And a miniscule number of them are even real!
So where do you get your "TRUTH" from?
Do you really think that a real conservative would switch ranks and vote for a Marxist? And if so, where does your rationale come from?
Well, you know what I always say: The last 2.77 percent is always the hardest.
Its hard to predict turnout this year. A good sign about turnout is individual contributions. Its true that Obama has enthused a lot of supporters and in some primaries black and youth turnout was in fact much higher. Still he gets pretty big crowds.
It remains to be seen whether that represents new voters or simply an enthused liberal base.
they always oversample RATS, but, the good news is... he's STILL WINNING or in a Statistical TIE even with the oversampling. 8^)
Operation Chaos assured that PUMA votes would be ours, millions of them.
Methinks we're going to see a situation where the polls are radically off from the actual election day vote totals because what is being called "oversampling of Democrats" on here actually is oversampling of Democrats. Between fraudulent ACORN registrations, which won't translate into votes, and Operation Chaos reregistrants, which will not translate into votes for Obama, the polls are being skewed beyond any recognition point.
Along with Winnie the Poo, Mickey Mouse, The Dallas Cowboys, the dude who registered 72 times.
Never mistake personal experience for demographic trend.
Couldn’t say but some people did change their affiliations to affect the primaries.
What does PUMA mean?
In the last presidential race it was 37 Republican, 37 Democrat.
The ACORN registrations are being tossed out by the thousands. Mickey Mouse and the rest of the Disney characters will not be voting on November 4th.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.