Posted on 10/20/2008 2:12:41 PM PDT by Chet 99
Daily Tracking Poll: John McCain Pushes Back but Barack Obama Remains Ahead
Democrat Leads 53-44 as Republican Contender Improves on Economic Empathy
ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER
Oct. 20, 2008—
John McCain has climbed back from his record shortfalls on economic empathy and "change" since the final presidential debate last week -- but not enough to alter the basic dynamic of his contest with Barack Obama.
Focusing on economic concerns at the debate and since, McCain has trimmed Obama's lead in better understanding Americans' economic problems from 31 points last week to 19 points now; on bringing "needed change" to Washington, from 34 points to 21; and as the "stronger leader," from 17 points to 8.
Click here for PDF with charts and questions.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
-7% Dem sample advantage.
-McCain is improving on the internal questions, including enthusiasm
-This is now a daily tracking poll
ABC news is full of it...
I wonder how many votes will come by mail from military abroad. They could be of very help to win in Co, Va and Nv.
This poll is an outlier. Throw it out.
ABC You can shove it. Your Polls, Your Staff and Your Network are all GARBAGE. EOM
GOP intensity should be high to off the charts if conservatives realize that ACORN will run the 2010 election if Obama wins.
No way Obama has 53%. No Democrat since??? when...FDR... has ever hit 53%.
Plus, does this poll offer an accurate depiction of the electorate? I think it matters a great deal if rural voters are underrepresented while suburban/urban ones are overrepresented.
Remember ABC = Disney next time you plan your vacation or buy your kids presents. This poll is a joke.
AllBarackChannel poll??? Why on earth would you post that crap here?? We’re trying to inspire, not encourage the slitting of wrists!! Think before you post next time!!!
LBJ hit 60+
If this poll is an “outliner” could you please post data from another poll that shows McCain ahead in Virginia?
The numbers are so volatile.
IBD shows McCain tied with Obama among catholics, a key group. Independents are going anywhere from slight McCain to double digit Obama. These polls are so inconsistent compared to 2004.
Seems you are working from an incorrect definition of outlier. This poll is out of line by several percentage points from most other polls. There wouldn’t need to be polls showing McCain ahead for this one to be an outlier.
One other number that doesn’t fit other polls is the number of undecideds. In this poll they are no more than 3%, in others they are in double digits. My guess is that respondents were pushed by the pollster to name a candidate, in which case the Tom Bradley effect may have played a role in this.
The RCP Composite shows Obama up by 8.1 in Virginia. Again, that is not an outliner but an average of the polls that RCP uses.
Personally, I cannot see Obama winning Va by eight points but it it getting very difficult to imagine how McCain can close that gap.
Worse yet, McCain has to throw money and time into Virginia a state that should have been a GOP Lock.
And at this time McCain is somewhat limited in money and very limited in time.
You really don’t understand this stuff, do you?
Wanna use the RCP? OK, the RCP National uses 9 polls. Today those polls have Obama +5, +4, +6, +5, +5, +6, +4, +9, +9.
The two polls showing +9 (ABC/WaPo & Gallup Expanded) are the outliers. Throw them out and the average is Obama +5.
What that means is that the RCP average is using two outliers to arrive at its average. That’s pretty silly and it makes their averaging valueless.
Yes, and in every one of those polls Obama is above the MoE.
And in every one of those polls, Republicans are under-sampled.
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