The RCP Composite shows Obama up by 8.1 in Virginia. Again, that is not an outliner but an average of the polls that RCP uses.
Personally, I cannot see Obama winning Va by eight points but it it getting very difficult to imagine how McCain can close that gap.
Worse yet, McCain has to throw money and time into Virginia a state that should have been a GOP Lock.
And at this time McCain is somewhat limited in money and very limited in time.
You really don’t understand this stuff, do you?
Wanna use the RCP? OK, the RCP National uses 9 polls. Today those polls have Obama +5, +4, +6, +5, +5, +6, +4, +9, +9.
The two polls showing +9 (ABC/WaPo & Gallup Expanded) are the outliers. Throw them out and the average is Obama +5.
What that means is that the RCP average is using two outliers to arrive at its average. That’s pretty silly and it makes their averaging valueless.