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"Party Time

Much of Obama's advantage lies in greater-than-usual participation by Democrats; they outnumber Republicans by 7 percentage points among likely voters in this poll, as they have consistently this season. In 2004, by contrast, Democrats and Republicans turned out in equal numbers.

Obama's lead depends in large part on a larger-than-usual differential between Democrats and Republicans.

Not only are there more Democrats, Obama's doing a bit better in his own party; 91 percent of Democrats support him, compared with McCain's support among Republicans, 84 percent. Republicans are more often reliable party voters, but 12 percent of them now favor Obama, better than John Kerry or Al Gore's share of Republicans (6 and 8 percent, respectively), and about matching Bill Clinton's in 1996 (13 percent).

Swing-voting independents, meanwhile, divide very closely, 48-47 percent, as do married women, another potential swing group. "

What crap. Yeah, if you give the Dems +7 in party ID and then assume that McCain will not get 16% of the GOP vote while Obama will get all but 9% of the Dem vote then Obama will have a 9 point lead. Man, can they be any more blatant?

One other number that doesn’t fit other polls is the number of undecideds. In this poll they are no more than 3%, in others they are in double digits. My guess is that respondents were pushed by the pollster to name a candidate, in which case the Tom Bradley effect may have played a role in this.