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Daily Tracking Poll: John McCain Pushes Back but Barack Obama Remains Ahead
ABC ^
Posted on 10/20/2008 2:12:41 PM PDT by Chet 99
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1
posted on
10/20/2008 2:12:42 PM PDT
by
Chet 99
To: kesg; Perdogg
-7% Dem sample advantage.
-McCain is improving on the internal questions, including enthusiasm
-This is now a daily tracking poll
2
posted on
10/20/2008 2:14:13 PM PDT
by
Chet 99
(Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
To: Chet 99
ABC news is full of it...
3
posted on
10/20/2008 2:15:40 PM PDT
by
bahblahbah
(http://explorations.chasrmartin.com/2008/09/06/palin-rumors/)
To: Chet 99
I wonder how many votes will come by mail from military abroad. They could be of very help to win in Co, Va and Nv.
4
posted on
10/20/2008 2:15:54 PM PDT
by
tomymind
To: Chet 99
This poll is an outlier. Throw it out.
5
posted on
10/20/2008 2:17:03 PM PDT
by
savedbygrace
(SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
To: Chet 99
"Party Time
Much of Obama's advantage lies in greater-than-usual participation by Democrats; they outnumber Republicans by 7 percentage points among likely voters in this poll, as they have consistently this season. In 2004, by contrast, Democrats and Republicans turned out in equal numbers.
Obama's lead depends in large part on a larger-than-usual differential between Democrats and Republicans.
Not only are there more Democrats, Obama's doing a bit better in his own party; 91 percent of Democrats support him, compared with McCain's support among Republicans, 84 percent. Republicans are more often reliable party voters, but 12 percent of them now favor Obama, better than John Kerry or Al Gore's share of Republicans (6 and 8 percent, respectively), and about matching Bill Clinton's in 1996 (13 percent).
Swing-voting independents, meanwhile, divide very closely, 48-47 percent, as do married women, another potential swing group. "
What crap. Yeah, if you give the Dems +7 in party ID and then assume that McCain will not get 16% of the GOP vote while Obama will get all but 9% of the Dem vote then Obama will have a 9 point lead. Man, can they be any more blatant?
6
posted on
10/20/2008 2:17:41 PM PDT
by
Harry Wurzbach
(Joe The Plumber & Rep. Thaddeus McCotter are my heroes.)
To: Chet 99
ABC You can shove it. Your Polls, Your Staff and Your Network are all GARBAGE. EOM
7
posted on
10/20/2008 2:17:57 PM PDT
by
jimmur281974
(No Way! No How! NOBAMA)
To: Chet 99
GOP intensity should be high to off the charts if conservatives realize that ACORN will run the 2010 election if Obama wins.
No way Obama has 53%. No Democrat since??? when...FDR... has ever hit 53%.
8
posted on
10/20/2008 2:18:17 PM PDT
by
Frantzie
To: Chet 99
Plus, does this poll offer an accurate depiction of the electorate? I think it matters a great deal if rural voters are underrepresented while suburban/urban ones are overrepresented.
9
posted on
10/20/2008 2:19:52 PM PDT
by
Harry Wurzbach
(Joe The Plumber & Rep. Thaddeus McCotter are my heroes.)
To: jimmur281974
Remember ABC = Disney next time you plan your vacation or buy your kids presents. This poll is a joke.
10
posted on
10/20/2008 2:19:55 PM PDT
by
Frantzie
To: Chet 99
AllBarackChannel poll??? Why on earth would you post that crap here?? We’re trying to inspire, not encourage the slitting of wrists!! Think before you post next time!!!
11
posted on
10/20/2008 2:20:41 PM PDT
by
NoGrayZone
(Michelle Obama...Queen of the Damned (courtesy of CougarGA7)
To: Frantzie
12
posted on
10/20/2008 2:20:44 PM PDT
by
Chet 99
(Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
To: savedbygrace
If this poll is an “outliner” could you please post data from another poll that shows McCain ahead in Virginia?
13
posted on
10/20/2008 2:22:16 PM PDT
by
trumandogz
(The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
To: Frantzie
The numbers are so volatile.
IBD shows McCain tied with Obama among catholics, a key group. Independents are going anywhere from slight McCain to double digit Obama. These polls are so inconsistent compared to 2004.
To: trumandogz
Seems you are working from an incorrect definition of outlier. This poll is out of line by several percentage points from most other polls. There wouldn’t need to be polls showing McCain ahead for this one to be an outlier.
15
posted on
10/20/2008 2:27:05 PM PDT
by
savedbygrace
(SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
To: Harry Wurzbach
One other number that doesn’t fit other polls is the number of undecideds. In this poll they are no more than 3%, in others they are in double digits. My guess is that respondents were pushed by the pollster to name a candidate, in which case the Tom Bradley effect may have played a role in this.
To: savedbygrace
The RCP Composite shows Obama up by 8.1 in Virginia. Again, that is not an outliner but an average of the polls that RCP uses.
Personally, I cannot see Obama winning Va by eight points but it it getting very difficult to imagine how McCain can close that gap.
Worse yet, McCain has to throw money and time into Virginia a state that should have been a GOP Lock.
And at this time McCain is somewhat limited in money and very limited in time.
17
posted on
10/20/2008 2:36:56 PM PDT
by
trumandogz
(The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
To: trumandogz
You really don’t understand this stuff, do you?
Wanna use the RCP? OK, the RCP National uses 9 polls. Today those polls have Obama +5, +4, +6, +5, +5, +6, +4, +9, +9.
The two polls showing +9 (ABC/WaPo & Gallup Expanded) are the outliers. Throw them out and the average is Obama +5.
What that means is that the RCP average is using two outliers to arrive at its average. That’s pretty silly and it makes their averaging valueless.
18
posted on
10/20/2008 2:54:28 PM PDT
by
savedbygrace
(SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
To: savedbygrace
Yes, and in every one of those polls Obama is above the MoE.
19
posted on
10/20/2008 2:57:56 PM PDT
by
trumandogz
(The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
To: trumandogz
And in every one of those polls, Republicans are under-sampled.
20
posted on
10/20/2008 3:20:27 PM PDT
by
savedbygrace
(SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
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