Why the polls are incorrect: Is Mc Cain actually in the lead? (Vanity)

Hoosiermama | Vanity

[hoosiermama]

Why the polls are incorrect: Is Mc Cain actually in the lead? (Vanity)

First let me apologize to all of you who are tired of the vanities, but felt we needed this conversation.

It occurred to me last evening while watching Laura on O’Reilly. She stated it really upset her that there were so many more democrats registered then Republicans.

One of those “”A-HA!” moments hit me. I work the polls in one of the larger districts in our area. Last fall many of my republican friends and neighbors (Approximately 10% that I was aware of)) requested “D” ballots. Several even winked or smiled knowingly. They were part of Operation Chaos.

Listening to Mary Matelin the other evening explaining that the polls use a percentage of registered voters to determine the percentage of party members to canvas. I imagine in Indiana that number is influenced by the actual ballot requested in the Primary. Is Operation Chaos still doing it’s thing?

BTW I was polled this week. It occurred to me and I dutifully reported to the poller that several of my “D” neighbors were supporting Mc Cain. (I suppose according to Murpha we would be considered a “racist” community)

My questions for fellow freepers: How much influence did the OC movement have on the vote in your state? Is it more influential than the Bradley affect? Rush listeners, which states are you in and how many of them voted heavily for Hillary? Are the potential voters not only enough for McCain to win, but win in a landslide?

[tx_eggman]

Would appreciate your thoughts!

Agreed, the polls are wrong ... and, as I've posted elsewhere, that "victory" party in Grant Park is going to be a real stinker ...

I can hardly wait.

[1curiousmind]

I agree with you to point. Re-read what I posted. I am saying that more conservative-leaning voters would be less likely to answer and participate than liberal leaning ones.

The pollsters are breaking things down into 3 basic categories: Republican, Democrat, Independant.

In the real world of voters the situation is much more dynamic. What I am speculating is that the polls cannot capture this dynamic in these phone polls. And that I think the more conservative one is there would be a less likelihood to participate in these polls.

Now how much this affects their results....I don’t know. But it is my hunch...that is all.

[NRG1973]

I think that the changing technology (increased use of cell phones and caller ID) in the telephone industry also skews the polls. I have few friends/acquantances who have land-line phones anymore...and those that do have land-line phones use caller ID to screen their calls. Unless you know them, they aren’t going to pick up the phone.

I think that skews the sample of “survey responders” to those who are either poor or elderly and probably lean Democrat.

[kabar]

He gave the money [$2300] on August 8, 2007. No contributions to Obama. Powell has given money to McCain in the past as well. He has also contributed to the campaigns of Allen, Hagel, and Heather Wilson on multiple occasions along with the RNC and the Rep party of VA. I can find no instance where he contributed to the Dems or a Dem candidate. I am using Open Secrets for the data.

[Savage Beast]

I agree with you. One of the goals of the massive fraudulent voter registrations is to discourage Obama opponents (the other, of course, is to steal the election for Obama). This is also a goal of the poll results intentionally weighted toward Obama.

We must refuse to be discouraged. Get out there and work--campaign--and vote!

[ROLF of the HILL COUNTRY]

Party affiliation is only significant for the Primaries (to prevent people from voting in both parties); come national election, everybody gets the same ballot!

[libbytarian]

I have worked at the polls in Dayton Ohio every election since I have lived here. For the first time the precinct I worked at ran out of forms to change your party affiliation. Running out of party switch forms was happening all over Montgomery county. In Ohio the first time you vote in a primary and declare your ballot choice you are then identified at the next primary to be a D, R, or undeclared. It really is rare for people to switch parties because they must sign a form declaring they are changing party affiliation. Operation chaos was obvious and many of those switching were not shy about their intentions.

I am now going door to door and when I see a sign in a registered Democrats yard with a McCain/Palin sign I check to see the last time they voted and it is always our primary date, March 4th 2008.

I cannot verify it but a person more closely connected with GOP headquarters told me the number who switched was 8000.

libby

[srmorton]

If more conservatives than liberals hang up on pollsters, that WILL affect the results. You are correct that the pollster will keep on calling until he gets enough responses, but those people are going to be consistently more liberal than the ones that hung up on him. The result is that the entire poll is slanted in that direction.

[Harry Wurzbach]

Right, but the question is what kind of Republicans are they reaching by calling land lines during the day?

[stylin_geek]

I tend to think Obama has internal poll numbers that suggest he’s not as far ahead as the media is portraying him.

Let me off some anecdotal evidence: Obama has been hitting reliably blue CA with quite a few commercials.

I find it hard to believe all of the commercials are part of a national ad buy.

Which leads me to wonder why Obama finds it necessary to run campaign commercials in CA.

[NRG1973]

Excellent analysis. Let me just say that there is no way Obama is going to win Hillary’s 18 million voters.

Good point!!! If 10% of those 18 million vote for McCain and another 5% stay home on election day, it would be a landslide win for McCain/Palin.

[tioga]

I am in upstate NY and see NO obama commercials.

[srmorton]

I think that Dole will pull it out because her opponent is tied to the corrupt Democrat administration in our state. The only reason Kay Hagan has a chance is because of the money coming in from out of the state to try to defeat Elizabeth Dole. On the other hand, the same polls show that NC is about to elect only the third Republican governor in the last 100 years! There is NO WAY Obama is going to take NC and the state elect a Republican governor!

[imfrmdixie]

We live in Florida. This past week we drove from our home on the Gulf coast side to Jacksonville on the Atlantic side. During this week long trip we saw 2 Obama stickers/signs...and many McCain/Palin signs. People who had anything to say about the election only uttered how sick and tired of the whole thing they were. I am bewildered by these polls reporting Obama ahead in any number. I just don’t get it....but, complacency is not what we need...we still have to get every vote out there. I remember those words Obama said to McCain...”he doesn’t know who he is messing with. I have no intention of losing this race.” We need to see that his intention is spoiled.

[stylin_geek]

Interesting.

I was surprised when I saw the first one. Several Obama commercials later, I started wondering why the Obama campaign found it necessary.

[HerrBlucher]

Good, then if he endorses it will be McCain.

[Oldpuppymax]

I’m certainly not going to depend upon Hillary voters to carry the day for McCain. Remember...these people are leftists first, dems and Americans follow in that order of importance. McCain had every opportunity thrown his way during the campaign, yet he managed little more than stunningly stupid endorsements of Obama time and again! If the MSM winds up electing Obama it means we have become a Marxist nation and nothing short of a second American revolution will correct the problem. But are there enough actual patriots who care? The left will find out for sure when it 1. does away with talk radio, and 2. overturns the 2nd amendment. Then we’ll know.

[olrtex]

Has anyone seen a decent analysis of how Mexican-Americans are likely to vote? They could easily make the difference in this election, and it is hard to see them going for Obama in greater percentages than they went for Kerry.

[GoSarah]

The donations were before Obama stepped in the mix, though. Nothing in 2008.

[Harry Wurzbach]

Good point!!! If 10% of those 18 million vote for McCain and another 5% stay home on election day, it would be a landslide win for McCain/Palin.

Well, it's not just those folks. It's those who didn't vote in the primary and who would be inclined to vote for a Clinton or even a Kerry but won't vote for an Obama.

As much as the media likes to play up the 'rural whites (cough Democrats cough) are racist and won't vote for Obama' story, I think the real problem is Obama's clear left wing social agenda, as well as his coolness to even the most basic of patriotic displays. That is what turns off those rural Dems more than anything else. They can't relate to someone who hates America. Sure, they may hate "the rich" or "corporations" but at the end of the day, they are part of the group of people who have fought and died for this land. Obama might as well be from Mars. Plus I think it's obvious that Obama will probably fight to make life harder for gun owners.

I'm seeing a solid McCain win. In this political and economic environment, if Obama isn't up by 20% in a somewhat respectable poll (not that NYT/CBS jobber) there is something fatally flawed about his candidacy. And it's obvious. It's the detached demeanor. Do we really believe someone with his background can relate to the average American? He grew up in Hawaii with a stop in Indonesia, attended a private school there, but then, after stops at a couple elite academic institutions, ends up in the midst of radical left wing politics. I mean, how does the average Joe (yes, say, the Plumber) relate to someone who's first job was as a "community organizer"? WTH?

Let's just imagine that Barack in an alternate universe had joined the military out of college, served with distinction, and then perhaps went to law school and ended up as a prosecutor. Or maybe he starts a business after military service. whatever. Do we not think that he would have been received differently by the voting public? It's not race that is hurting him. It's his career choices, his lifestyle, and his associates. The average Joes of America cannot relate to him. And that includes his running mate, the fakest alleged member of the working class I've ever seen.

I'm not sure even the economy can save the version of Barack that we see on the ballot. Think back to the primaries. He couldn't close the deal when it was obvious he had the pledged delegates and the superdelegates were falling in line for him. Even then, Obama was losing big normal battleground state primary after primary when the more normal Democrat voters vote (as opposed to the loony tunes left wing caucus types). Hillary was trouncing him in those primaries, with him as the obvious nominee. Let's not forget that she went after his aloofness and weird background hard. Just doing a shot at a bar highlighted the fact that her opponent was not someone that 75% of Democrats or whatever could relate to.

Obama is too odd of a duck to win the presidency at this time. I think the Democrats are going to have a lot of infighting ahead for themselves after an Obama loss. You know the Clintons are going to drop 'i told you so' on the party about 40 million times and will push for more open primaries as opposed to caucuses.

Oh well, let them fall into disarray. On the GOP side, we'll have to figure out a way to get Gov. Palin ready for 2012.