FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling - October 12, 2008 (some interesting numbers)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/12/2008 | rasmussen reports

[johncocktoasten]

Monday, October 13, 2008 Email to a Friend Overview

Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia shows a very stable race whose underlying dynamic strongly favors Barack Obama over John McCain.

Obama holds a narrow advantage ranging from two to five percentage points in four of the five states and is tied with McCain in North Carolina. Keep in mind that all five of these states were carried by George W. Bush in Election 2004.

[johncocktoasten]

On this date, McCain was 5 points behind the zero nationally, however in every battleground state, McCain ran ahead of his national numbers.

Florida- McCain even with national #

Missouri- McCain 2% ahead of national #

North Carolina- McCain 5% ahead of national #

Ohio- McCain 3% ahead of national #

Virginia- McCain 2% ahead of national #

Now follow me here. Bush won nationally in 2004 by 2.5%. Party ID in the 2004 election was 37 D 37 R 26 Ind/oth. Rasmussen is weighting 39.3 D 33 R 27.7 Ind. or Dem +6.3%. That level of disparity hasn't happened in 40 years. In fact, Rasmussen missed by over 3.2% oversampling Dems in the Republican down year of 2006.

http://www.depts.ttu.edu/hs/hdfs3390/weighting.htm

[God luvs America]

where are yor above numbers from???

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Yesterday, McCain was 12 percent behind BO in MO. The polls are really questionable.

[johncocktoasten]

Rasmussen

[Califreak]

Yes, but isn’t MO the “Don’t-show-me-or-you’ll-be-prosecuted!” state?

They are probably afraid to respond truthfully.

[for-q-clinton]

I wonder how heavily weighted the Rats are in the battleground states? This is an all out effort by the liberal press to discourage the Republican’s voting. They know republican’s vote and they need to keep that from happening. This is their all out effort. They will lie like crazy (like say Obama is up 10%) in hopes of pulling off a 1 point win. Then they’ll just say we picked the right winner we were just off by a few points, but we did predict the winner. Which completely ignores the fact that they influenced the race with their biased polls.

[bereanway]

If Rasmussen is oversampling dims by 6.3% McCain is in grreat shape in all these states and he may well be leading nationally. Compare this to the Survey USA poll yesterday which showed 0 leading in MO by 8 points. Somebody’s cooking the books.

[Personal Responsibility]

The wise warrior does not attack mind or body, but spirit.

These polls oversample democrats to ensure Obama is viewed as leading. The goal of such polling is to destroy the spirit of McCain voters. To make us think we are supporting a losing cause.

All in an effort to keep potential McCain voters at home.

THere are two ways to get more votes than your opponent:
Gain more on your side
Prevent more on their side.

ACORN’s antics show the Left’s way of gaining more Democratic votes
Oversampled polling show the Left’s way of preventing more Republican votes

[Rumierules]

Does anyone know whether the oversampling of DEMS is related to the ACORN fraud? In other words, if a state shows a spike in DEMS registering, does that affect the polling data? Or do pollsters simply rely on callers telling them which party they most closely identify?

[basil]

These polls mean NOTHING! The only poll that counts will be taken on Nov.4.

I've been polled by telephone 4 times. Each time I told them I was voting for the big O. I'm sure I'm not the only one lying to these pollsters.

[Jazz1968]

I think all polls are BS.
Voter fraud is what is going to carry the day for BO.
Looks like there is no stopping it!

[Interesting Times]

Well said.

[HamiltonJay]

Any RASS poll you have to take away 2 from Fauxbama and Add 4 to McCain, turnouts will be at 2004 levels in terms of percentages, believing otherwise is not justifiable.

Rass is basically fairly accurately reporting the race once you adjust his oversampling, that being nationally McCain’s up 1 heading into the home stretch with momentum, and a whole like lot of scandal for Fauxbama hitting the fan.

I am not sure if he’s using the same targets per his state polls as his nationals, but his nationals are off.

[bigbob]

I cannot fathom Obama actually winning in VA or NC

[mainerforglobalwarming]

I just want the base to show up at this point. Is it too much to ask for McCain to get 95% of the conservative base to vote for him? God knows I despise him, but obama is clearly another stalin in the making. I don't want to go to a re-education camp or a gulag, really don't. we can blow these polls out of the water if we show up and vote.

[Redbob]

Rasmussen didn’t accurately predict the Bush victory in ‘04:
Gallup did, and
Zogby did, and
Marist did.

[mombi]

My own personal poll along a road in the northern Shenandoah valley of VA that I travel occasionally:

In 2004, 15-3 in favor of Kerry.

In 2008, 14-13 in favor of McCain.

[Redbob]

Could it be the oversampling of Dims is due to the pollsters using the proportion of Dim to GOP found in the primaries?

The Dims’ numbers were far higher then because they had a real fight between Obama and Hillary, while during most of the primaries GOP voters had only “hold your nose” choices.

[cmsgop]

Great Name, Fletch Lives!

[The Fop]

Does anyone have any concrete info on who funds these pollsters? I’m curious how they make their money.