Posted on 10/03/2008 3:00:14 PM PDT by mathprof
In the kitchens of the Associated Press, it's almost as if the wire service asked its chief cook -- er, pollster -- GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media, to do the following:
Of course we don't know if the differences between AP-CfK's Sept. 5-10 and Sept. 27-30 results were created deliberately, but the results sure look suspicious (both polls are available at PDF links found at AP-GfK's home page).
The more recent poll shows Obama with a 7-point lead among likely voters, both with and without leaners; the earlier poll showed McCain with a 5-point lead with leaners, and 4 points without.
Almost all of this 12-point swing (11 points with leaners) is more than likely almost completely due to major differences between the two polls' samples:
"Somehow," the sample make-up changed from 33-31 Democrat to 40-29 Democrat from the earlier to the latter poll -- a shift of nine points.
"Somehow," the Strong-Dem vs. Strong-GOP difference went from nothing to eight points.
"Somehow," the Strong-GOP vs. Moderate-GOP mix went from +3 to -3, a swing of six points.
Here's my best estimate of how the Sept. 27-30 poll would have turned out if AP-GfK had used a sample similar to the one it used Sept. 5-10:
After correcting for differences in the samples, almost all of Obama's double-digit pickup disappears, leaving McCain with four- and three-point leads without and with leaners, respectively. Even if one argues that the first poll showed a too-small gap between the two parties in the number of people sampled, substituting the 5-point difference Gallup identified shortly after the GOP convention would still leave McCain with a slight lead.
Either AP isn't supervising its GfK cooks properly, or it's directing them to poison discussions of presidential race, while hoping that no one notices the rancid product it is clearly producing.
AP waitress -- er, reporter -- Liz Sidoti brought out the new poll's results for our consumption yesterday with this exultant intro:
Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.
Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across worldwide markets.
As you can see above, her celebration is founded on fabrication; thus, her "explanations" are deep-fried in deception.
Just because AP, GfK, and Sidoti are serving us this rotten recipe doesn't mean that readers have to swallow it. So don't.
Damn the polls, full speed ahead!
(My apologies to any descendants of John Paul Jones)
I suspected this. Best news I have had all day.
Thanks
Off topic:
Small brain infarc.
We should start addressing all the msm talking heads as ‘News Readers’. That is how they are addressed in the UK. It would drive them bonkers.
Wait a sec, what are you saying, that it's not smart to hand the election to 0bama by not voting for McCain?
Some days it feels like we are beating our heads against a stone wall when it comes to polls. Same people breathlessly post the stupid polls with the sky is falling.
The number of Dems being polled in these phoney polls is mind boggling. They have way oversampled Dems compared to the number that voted in 2004 which showed up in my Oklahoma poll comparison that is off 13 points for the same time period between a local pollster who has been within 2-3 points in every election verus Rasmussen who way overpolled Dems in OK.
Wish there was a way to shout on here. I have been gone most of the day and have come to the conclusion after reading my email that too many people watch cable news and believe everything they hear. Why anyone would watch MSNBC or CNN is beyond me.
Any suggestions how to get our message across?
I heard a Barack wonk the other day say they need a 14 point lead in order to win. He was basically admitting the polls were skewed left.
i can live with that
I happily concur!
WOW!
About six weeks ago I heard seven points and now 14 points? AWESOME. I also think they have a problem with Dems telling pollsters they will vote for Obama not to appear racist but would never vote for him.
One of the Ohio polls did polling in SE Ohio and no way under the sun are they going to support Obama in the privacy of the polling booth. I grew up in Ohio and my brother went to college in SE Ohio and we both agree that part of the state is not going to favor Obama.
None. I've spent a lot of time putting together gobs of data on threads, and they're generally ignored. Especially when compared to a Britney Spears thread.
I got a good (democrat) F-4 mechanic friend in AZ that was bugging me about Hillary quite a bit this year. Nothing since she lost the nomination. The dems are racists and their chickens are roosting.
Do pollsters call cel numbers too, or just land lines? If they don’t call cel numbers, they are missing all those twenty-somethings out there who only have cel phones and not land lines. And if that is the case, there is a large block of voters out there who are flying under the radar.
I agree with you on that. One of the people that sent me an email asking me to report what the Obama campaign was going to do with voter fraud in northwest Ohio was a Hillary supporter from OK. How she got my name, I will never know but I passed it on and she said there is no way her and other Hillary supporters were supporting Obama. I was shocked.
She left her phone number and when I called it was legit — she was furious at the Obama people. She even declared the reason the Dems didn’t do a full roll call was because when they added in MI and FL, Hillary would have won. I have no idea but I thought it was interesting.
I am not sure I agree with Pew. I would be surprised if there is not an older demographics associated with landlines then cell phones.
When I made calls for an OK Senate candidate in 2006, I would bet the average age of people I talked with was in the 50’s. In fact, I had 23 straight calls of people over 70. That list came from Aristotle which had the best lists in 2006.
Have a landline but don’t answer it — use my cell phone all the time and if I don’t know who is calling, I don’t answer it either. :)
I have seen more pictures of older folks registering you think they would be registered already and the man in the picture looks like he has no idea what to do. If you do not know what to do with your ballot than go home. Maybe they only tell them to vote Obama and the people will for get to vote for the other demoncats running on the ballot.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.