Posted on 10/03/2008 3:00:14 PM PDT by mathprof
In the kitchens of the Associated Press, it's almost as if the wire service asked its chief cook -- er, pollster -- GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media, to do the following:
Of course we don't know if the differences between AP-CfK's Sept. 5-10 and Sept. 27-30 results were created deliberately, but the results sure look suspicious (both polls are available at PDF links found at AP-GfK's home page).
The more recent poll shows Obama with a 7-point lead among likely voters, both with and without leaners; the earlier poll showed McCain with a 5-point lead with leaners, and 4 points without.
Almost all of this 12-point swing (11 points with leaners) is more than likely almost completely due to major differences between the two polls' samples:
"Somehow," the sample make-up changed from 33-31 Democrat to 40-29 Democrat from the earlier to the latter poll -- a shift of nine points.
"Somehow," the Strong-Dem vs. Strong-GOP difference went from nothing to eight points.
"Somehow," the Strong-GOP vs. Moderate-GOP mix went from +3 to -3, a swing of six points.
Here's my best estimate of how the Sept. 27-30 poll would have turned out if AP-GfK had used a sample similar to the one it used Sept. 5-10:
After correcting for differences in the samples, almost all of Obama's double-digit pickup disappears, leaving McCain with four- and three-point leads without and with leaners, respectively. Even if one argues that the first poll showed a too-small gap between the two parties in the number of people sampled, substituting the 5-point difference Gallup identified shortly after the GOP convention would still leave McCain with a slight lead.
Either AP isn't supervising its GfK cooks properly, or it's directing them to poison discussions of presidential race, while hoping that no one notices the rancid product it is clearly producing.
AP waitress -- er, reporter -- Liz Sidoti brought out the new poll's results for our consumption yesterday with this exultant intro:
Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.
Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across worldwide markets.
As you can see above, her celebration is founded on fabrication; thus, her "explanations" are deep-fried in deception.
Just because AP, GfK, and Sidoti are serving us this rotten recipe doesn't mean that readers have to swallow it. So don't.
My principle is to not believe any polls that show McCain-Palin behind. I figure they’re all crooked and run by Commie liberals.
Quit buying this crap hook, line and sinker is a good place to start.
Polls are only one part of the equation, and they're the most over-rated.
-Look at baselines established in each state during previous Presidential elections
-Look at excitement measured by volunteers and donations
-Look at voter registration data
-And perhaps most importantly watch how the candidates conduct their post-convention campaigns. Where are they visiting, and where are they putting their ad dollars? Where are the RNC & DNC putting their funds?
Anyone who thinks Obama has this election in the bag is just a damn fool. Or a willing dupe of the media.
Case in point, there was a PA poll around last week showing Obama leading McCain 50-46. Sounds reasonable. Unfortunately the sample was 53% Dem, 39% GOP. In 2004 the differential was +2 for the Dems. This poll had a +14 differential.
If that poll was representative of this election, and I think it was, then Obama is in some serious trouble in PA. But when KESG, PhiKapMom and others try to point this stuff out, it's almost completely ignored.
If the Democrats were really in the lead, they would not need to do this. This is all about energizing their base and trying to depress GOP turnout (like all the vanities being posted on FR)
IMHO if it is close and McCain squeaks it out we will be in litigation amidst race uprisings for months.
Good! Then we'll just go ahead and steal it .
Let ‘em fudge the figures. We are going to stomp them at the voting booth.
Thanks for the post - explains a lot!!
Any semblance of objectivity in the media is totally dead. Only floodlights shining on them and exposing their deceipt can help counter their disservice and propaganda.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
By Yael T. Abouhalkah, Kansas City Star Editorial Page columnist
Barack Obama continued Friday to widen his lead over John McCain, pulling ahead 49-42 percent in the daily Gallup Poll. With the economy sputtering, Obama's lead could grow even bigger in the next few days
too funny they added 7% to the dem sample and surprise surprise the media spread the lie of the Obama momentum, Hilter and Stalin would be jealous of the propaganda machine the democrats have assembled
Very astute! My hat's off to you!
Remember, this election is a referendum on Obama, and maybe even more so, the media. We need to give the MSM the biggest $ss kickin’ they’ve ever had. Put ‘em in the coffin and nail it shut! Hold your nose and vote McCain!
bmflr
Thanks for this post. It cheered me up considerably.
Yup.
Math prof, I am not a math prof. This looks confusing.
Can you explain for the layman?
Great analysis!
I agree, except...sometimes I think some of the more radical of the Leftwing Press could care less if their business makes money as long as they continue to get big salaries, see adoring fans, and get to push the socialist diversity agenda on us Bible-thumping, white trash redneck, gun-towtin’, God-fearing, non-nuanced, non-intellectual, country-hicks.
I happily await their going-out-of-business sales!
Ohio allowed the Obama campaign to bus in thousands upon thousands of unregistered voters this week.
They didn't need a photo ID.
They didn't need to show US citizenship.
They didn't even have to show Ohio residency.
The GOP already lost the state of Ohio. The GOP tried to fight this, and Clinton appointed judges shut it down.
Court denies GOP appeal on Ohio early voting
Look at this guy voting in Ohio.
We have reason to be worried - but look at this from October 17, 2004 - L.A. Times! Bush was ahead by 1-2 points nationwide but......
There is some good news for Democrats, beyond the usual caveats about polls and statistics: The Post poll, taken Wednesday through Friday, shows Kerry with a 10 point lead, 53 to 43, over Bush among likely voters in 13 battleground states. That’s consistent with what the Kerry campaign was saying before the third debate, when advisers would acknowledge trailing Bush nationally by about 2 points, but at the same time they said Kerry was much stronger than that in the battlegrounds.
Obama may be the Anti Christ.
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