Posted on 09/29/2008 1:48:55 PM PDT by TitansAFC
More good news!
Public Policy Polling, a Democrat Pollster, revealed a poll today showing Obama +2 in North Carolina. But one quick look at the internals reveals a steady McCain lead, when real numbers are applied.
What do I mean?
The Party turnout in the 2004 election?
Republicans 40%
Democrats 39%
(GOP +1%)
The Party breakdown in this poll?
Democrats 48%
Republicans 34%
(Democrats +14%)
Breaking down the poll by 2004 turnout numbers, we get these corrected numbers:
McCain: 48.4%
Obama: 41.0%
Others: 10.6%
(McCain by 7.4%!)
Even if the Dems have relatively expanded their party, and even by a pretty decent 4-6%, they still lose by outside the margin-of-error --- in a Democrat poll!!! They need a 14 point swing just to be statistically TIED!!! LOL
PinG!!!!
you have hit the nail on the head. State registration numbers are a misnomer. Its what you identify at the polls that is determinative. In the back of my mind I feel that many will say that whites lied to pollsters after Obama loses but the reality is the use of the registration numbers. Take a look at Survey USA’s last poll for NC and you will see the McCain 20 point lead. That poll used the 2004 numbers.
Surprise, surprise. Good catch. Polls are worthless.
Thanks for posting this.
I think using old voter turnout models won’t work this election. There’s a whole different Dem voting base that WILL turn out this election..and that is what we should be watching.
Obama can´t win North Carolina.
Southern dems are all for John McCain.
Still, its noway dems are 14% over Repubs as PPP says it is in North Carolina.
McCain takes NC by 8 to 10% in November.
ACORN
The national polls , Gallup , Zogby , Ramm. , ect.
are all way over sampling democrats to get Obama to his
lead he currently has.
So PPP has added fraud voter sauce to its poll.
A fifteen point swing is just not possible, even the dems will tell you that.
Plus, the Dems are not NEARLY as united as they were in 2004 - and their turnout machine was at its best EVER then. Most new voters EVER, most African-American voters EVER, most college voters EVER.
Will they perhaps do even better this time? Maybe. But 15 points better? Give me a freaking break.
McCain/Palin are ahead in NC by any realistic measure. So is Libby Dole, though much, much closer.
I’m really liking how folks here on FR are taking the internals and reworking the polls. Once this gets out and known by the pollsters, they will start lying about those numbers, or not report them at all.
Everyone also needs to know that even though voter fraud will occur, it is not as easy as it used to be. I can personally tell you that this is the case in FL.
McCain may have to spend precious time and money to hold the state he should be winning hands down.
I looked at their poll and found that they believe McCain is losing the 46-65 year olds. WTF????? Yea, right!!!
1. Manufacture polls that show 0bama ahead in 45 states.
2. Dispatch acolytes to all 50 states to steal elections in big cities/Dem strongholds in each state.
3. Questionable 'wins' in formerly red states can be explained with previously manufactured 'poll data'.
Why has no one posted the Rasmussen battlegrounds? They are quite good for how far we are allegedly behind.
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