Dude.
A fifteen point swing is just not possible, even the dems will tell you that.
Plus, the Dems are not NEARLY as united as they were in 2004 - and their turnout machine was at its best EVER then. Most new voters EVER, most African-American voters EVER, most college voters EVER.
Will they perhaps do even better this time? Maybe. But 15 points better? Give me a freaking break.
McCain/Palin are ahead in NC by any realistic measure. So is Libby Dole, though much, much closer.
Furthermore, the MSM is making it sound like this youth vote BO is going after is a first in history. Do you recall the MSM stating in the last two pres elections that we would all be surprised by the youth vote which was overwhelmingly going for the Dem? MSM all believe that all the youth are going to come out in support of this radical. First, they will not all come out. Secondly, they are not all for him. Only the radical youth who have no jobs are the ones you are seeing following BO like a rockstar.