Skip to comments.Barf Alert - Rassmussen NC, Obama 49, McCain 47, they are seriously having a laugh.
Posted on 09/25/2008 4:58:32 AM PDT by sunmars
Like, we really believe this..........pollsters have really lost the plot.
In your ignorant statements about the race here. NC Freepers have expected the polls to be close, while you're wetting your pants and accusing people of being in denial.
Fox has it at O +6, Hotline and Bloomberg at O +4, Gallup and Ras at O +3. And these polls are 2-4 days old, it was only getting worse since then.
NBC/WSJ happened to have a sample which slightly favored McCain, imo. Perhaps they don’t adjust for cell phone users, which clearly favor Obama by about 2:1 margin.
But it should not be close, if Sen. McCain were effectively getting out the message he’ll need to get out to win the true battleground states. Re-examine the point...I’m not speaking of NC, but of how that is a bellwether of his message effectiveness.
How can NC be a bellwether of the effectiveness of McCain's message when he's not visiting the state or advertising?
I have done enough statistical sampling to know that occasionally you get a sample that doesn't represent the population well. I suspect that is what is happening here. I would need to see a couple of more polls showing similar results before I would be convinced.
It is fun listening to all the Chicken Littles on this thread.
“NBC/WSJ happened to have a sample which slightly favored McCain, imo. Perhaps they dont adjust for cell phone users, which clearly favor Obama by about 2:1 margin.”
How in the world can you credibly say this? Obama has consistently led McCain in the NBC/WSJ polls this year, I believe by as much as 6 - 7 points. McCain has remained steady in this poll since the convention, and Peter Hart is no Repub, so I believe this poll is a clear example that McCain currently, at a minimum, is tied with Obama.
National news coverage is still available in NC.
Exactly my point.
Yeah, the same thing was said in '06, that everyone who took the polls seriously was a "Chicken Little". Well, guess what? The sky fell, and crushed the 'Pubs. Then everyone stood around in the wreckage and wondered what happened, before finding a convenient scapegoat (RINOs).
You want to ignore these warnings, then fine, go ahead. Sit back and blow them off. But don't come around here on Nov. 5th, when we're facing the grim prospect of a President-elect Obama, asking "Whoa hoppen? How could this happen?"
For the most part, the South has been solid for Republican candidates for the majority of recent elections. It's a must-have. We have to sweep it. If we lose a linchpin state like VA or NC, we're done. They're just that important. We can't afford to look the other way on things like this, "outlier" or not. McCain has to be working to hold what we've had in recent elections. They've been so close that we can't afford to lose many states that we've won before, especially since we're already looking at losing places like IA and NM and maybe CO. Use results like this poll as a motivation not to be complacent. We've got to campaign like we're behind, because we're not only fighting the 'Rats, but also their fifth-column allies in the media, their guerrilla warriors in the schools and universities, and the fickle nature of a somewhat intellectually lazy and uninformed electorate.
What this really means is that McCain really leads by 12%.
It's a 2-3 point race with 4 debates and over a month to go.
That's pretty darn close and no cause for panic. The national numbers will move quite a bit over the rest of the race, in both directions.
I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. I really mean that.
This poll is not an outlier with regards to NC. I believe there are at least two other polls that show it competitive for Obama in NC.
There is probably little we can do though if this is true. The electorate are angry with the GOP and the GOP is likely going to pay dearly come November. In the end, the nation and it’s citizens are the ones who will pay when the entire country is controlled by the extreme left wing.
In 2006, I knew the Dems were going to take back Congress. In fact, my predictions were pretty much on the mark, that the GOP would lose both houses, but not by as much as the news media was saying. I was right. This time around, I do NOT think Obama will take NC, no matter what a one-day survey from a not-so-accurate polling house has to say.
LOL, same here, and I don't even like pickles!
No effing way. I am shaking my head. Not even worried about NC.
The polls that are transparent about their internals seem to be assuming a HUGE increase in black turnout for Obama. This won't happen. It won't come close to happening. Bear in mind that the Dems have made an art form out of hauling every African American voter they can find to the polls for decades. It has kept them close when they had no business being close, but it means that there isn't a whole lot of room to expand turnout in the African American community. Enthusiasm for a brother may make it easeier and cheaper for the Dem GOTV machine to do its thing, but it won't radically change the composition of the electorate.
Keep your eye on the internals. Obama is losing white women and independents by significant margins and he is getting crushed among white men. His numbers on trust and leadership are in the crapper and heading for the septic tank. Whatever any horserace numbers look like, unless those fundamentals change he will lose every state a breathing Dem can lose.
It gives me no pleasure to say this but John Sydney McCain will be the next POTUS.
The problem I have with this argument is the MSM and all of their polls do this year after year to the GOP but there is something different this year. Obama is actually ahead in most polls now and the statewide polls that really could have McCain down too. Looking over the 2004 polls around this time all had Bush up even among registered voters by a good margin. Some similar to what we are seeing now with Obama being up.
I don’t like McCain, but I would rather see him in office now than Obama (who scares the crap out of me).
Given the number of Mexicans living in the areas surrounding Mt. Olive I wouldn’t be at all surprised if those pickles were not packed by illegals. I’ve seen illegals picking cukes that were being shipped there.
Mt. Olive pickles suck, except for the spicy hot dills. I prefer a crunchy Kosher from a barrel.
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