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Barf Alert - Rassmussen NC, Obama 49, McCain 47, they are seriously having a laugh.
Rassmussen ^

Posted on 09/25/2008 4:58:32 AM PDT by sunmars

Like, we really believe this..........pollsters have really lost the plot.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: badpolls; barf; electionpresident; mccainpalin; obamadinejad
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To: Gondring
In what way?

In your ignorant statements about the race here. NC Freepers have expected the polls to be close, while you're wetting your pants and accusing people of being in denial.

81 posted on 09/25/2008 6:55:10 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: moose2004

Fox has it at O +6, Hotline and Bloomberg at O +4, Gallup and Ras at O +3. And these polls are 2-4 days old, it was only getting worse since then.

NBC/WSJ happened to have a sample which slightly favored McCain, imo. Perhaps they don’t adjust for cell phone users, which clearly favor Obama by about 2:1 margin.


82 posted on 09/25/2008 6:56:31 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: JohnnyZ

But it should not be close, if Sen. McCain were effectively getting out the message he’ll need to get out to win the true battleground states. Re-examine the point...I’m not speaking of NC, but of how that is a bellwether of his message effectiveness.


83 posted on 09/25/2008 6:58:21 AM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)
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To: Gondring
Re-examine the point...I’m not speaking of NC, but of how that is a bellwether of his message effectiveness.

How can NC be a bellwether of the effectiveness of McCain's message when he's not visiting the state or advertising?

84 posted on 09/25/2008 7:12:38 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: sunmars
I don't dispute polls in general because they can be very accurate. However, this one doesn't pass the smell test.

I have done enough statistical sampling to know that occasionally you get a sample that doesn't represent the population well. I suspect that is what is happening here. I would need to see a couple of more polls showing similar results before I would be convinced.

It is fun listening to all the Chicken Littles on this thread.

85 posted on 09/25/2008 7:13:47 AM PDT by CommerceComet
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To: ubaldus

“NBC/WSJ happened to have a sample which slightly favored McCain, imo. Perhaps they don’t adjust for cell phone users, which clearly favor Obama by about 2:1 margin.”

How in the world can you credibly say this? Obama has consistently led McCain in the NBC/WSJ polls this year, I believe by as much as 6 - 7 points. McCain has remained steady in this poll since the convention, and Peter Hart is no Repub, so I believe this poll is a clear example that McCain currently, at a minimum, is tied with Obama.


86 posted on 09/25/2008 7:14:01 AM PDT by moose2004 (Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill And Then Drill Some More)
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To: JohnnyZ
How can NC be a bellwether of the effectiveness of McCain's message when he's not visiting the state or advertising?

National news coverage is still available in NC.

87 posted on 09/25/2008 7:27:36 AM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)
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To: Gondring
National news coverage is still available in NC.

Exactly my point.

88 posted on 09/25/2008 7:31:56 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: CommerceComet
It is fun listening to all the Chicken Littles on this thread.

Yeah, the same thing was said in '06, that everyone who took the polls seriously was a "Chicken Little". Well, guess what? The sky fell, and crushed the 'Pubs. Then everyone stood around in the wreckage and wondered what happened, before finding a convenient scapegoat (RINOs).

You want to ignore these warnings, then fine, go ahead. Sit back and blow them off. But don't come around here on Nov. 5th, when we're facing the grim prospect of a President-elect Obama, asking "Whoa hoppen? How could this happen?"

For the most part, the South has been solid for Republican candidates for the majority of recent elections. It's a must-have. We have to sweep it. If we lose a linchpin state like VA or NC, we're done. They're just that important. We can't afford to look the other way on things like this, "outlier" or not. McCain has to be working to hold what we've had in recent elections. They've been so close that we can't afford to lose many states that we've won before, especially since we're already looking at losing places like IA and NM and maybe CO. Use results like this poll as a motivation not to be complacent. We've got to campaign like we're behind, because we're not only fighting the 'Rats, but also their fifth-column allies in the media, their guerrilla warriors in the schools and universities, and the fickle nature of a somewhat intellectually lazy and uninformed electorate.

89 posted on 09/25/2008 7:32:19 AM PDT by chimera
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To: sunmars
Rassmussen gave the Dems a 14% advantage in NC.

What this really means is that McCain really leads by 12%.

90 posted on 09/25/2008 7:36:47 AM PDT by meadsjn (Socialists promote neighbors selling out their neighbors; Free --Traitors promote just the opposite.)
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To: chimera
Yeah, the same thing was said in '06, that everyone who took the polls seriously was a "Chicken Little". Well, guess what? The sky fell, and crushed the 'Pubs. Then everyone stood around in the wreckage and wondered what happened, before finding a convenient scapegoat (RINOs).

It's a 2-3 point race with 4 debates and over a month to go.

That's pretty darn close and no cause for panic. The national numbers will move quite a bit over the rest of the race, in both directions.

91 posted on 09/25/2008 7:48:26 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: JohnnyZ

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. I really mean that.


92 posted on 09/25/2008 8:10:44 AM PDT by chimera
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To: LiveFree99

This poll is not an outlier with regards to NC. I believe there are at least two other polls that show it competitive for Obama in NC.

There is probably little we can do though if this is true. The electorate are angry with the GOP and the GOP is likely going to pay dearly come November. In the end, the nation and it’s citizens are the ones who will pay when the entire country is controlled by the extreme left wing.


93 posted on 09/25/2008 8:43:25 AM PDT by CSI007
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To: chimera
A prescient warning that should be well-heeded by all here. In '06 we spent an enormous amount of energy trying to convince ourselves that the polls just couldn't be right, that nobody in their right minds would sweep out the 'Pubs and replace them with 'Rats. Well, guess what, that's exactly what happened.

In 2006, I knew the Dems were going to take back Congress. In fact, my predictions were pretty much on the mark, that the GOP would lose both houses, but not by as much as the news media was saying. I was right. This time around, I do NOT think Obama will take NC, no matter what a one-day survey from a not-so-accurate polling house has to say.

94 posted on 09/25/2008 9:18:14 AM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Here they come boys! As thick as grass, and as black as thunder!)
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To: Gondring
and no pickle but Mt. Olive enters my fridge

LOL, same here, and I don't even like pickles!

95 posted on 09/25/2008 9:21:51 AM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Here they come boys! As thick as grass, and as black as thunder!)
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To: sunmars

No effing way. I am shaking my head. Not even worried about NC.


96 posted on 09/25/2008 9:25:41 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: CSI007
The horserace polls, national and state by state, are all systematically overstating Obama’s strength. McCain isn't in danger of losing either NC or VA. It will occasionally look as though he is because every pollster is weighting the poll numbers to reflect unrealistic assumptions about black turnout this year. In Southern states with some white liberals and a lot of black voters (esp. NC and VA) that will will make things look tight. It's an illusion.

The polls that are transparent about their internals seem to be assuming a HUGE increase in black turnout for Obama. This won't happen. It won't come close to happening. Bear in mind that the Dems have made an art form out of hauling every African American voter they can find to the polls for decades. It has kept them close when they had no business being close, but it means that there isn't a whole lot of room to expand turnout in the African American community. Enthusiasm for a brother may make it easeier and cheaper for the Dem GOTV machine to do its thing, but it won't radically change the composition of the electorate.

Keep your eye on the internals. Obama is losing white women and independents by significant margins and he is getting crushed among white men. His numbers on trust and leadership are in the crapper and heading for the septic tank. Whatever any horserace numbers look like, unless those fundamentals change he will lose every state a breathing Dem can lose.

It gives me no pleasure to say this but John Sydney McCain will be the next POTUS.

97 posted on 09/25/2008 9:42:57 AM PDT by fluffdaddy
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To: fluffdaddy

The problem I have with this argument is the MSM and all of their polls do this year after year to the GOP but there is something different this year. Obama is actually ahead in most polls now and the statewide polls that really could have McCain down too. Looking over the 2004 polls around this time all had Bush up even among registered voters by a good margin. Some similar to what we are seeing now with Obama being up.

I don’t like McCain, but I would rather see him in office now than Obama (who scares the crap out of me).


98 posted on 09/25/2008 10:07:58 AM PDT by CSI007
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To: Gondring

Given the number of Mexicans living in the areas surrounding Mt. Olive I wouldn’t be at all surprised if those pickles were not packed by illegals. I’ve seen illegals picking cukes that were being shipped there.

Mt. Olive pickles suck, except for the spicy hot dills. I prefer a crunchy Kosher from a barrel.


99 posted on 09/25/2008 10:11:09 AM PDT by Rebelbase
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To: CSI007
I think what is different this year is that nobody knows how to poll a presidential contest with a black nominee. Republican leaning pollsters are being conservative about black turnout and the rest are being aggressive, which lands them in the same unrealistic place. When the exit polls are finally in we will see that the electorate is a bit more Dem than it was in 2004, a bit more Republican than it was in 2006 and close to the demographic averages of the last three Presidential years. Underneath the horserace numbers all the polls agree that in that scenario, Obama gets crushed.
100 posted on 09/25/2008 10:17:36 AM PDT by fluffdaddy
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