[CSI007]

This poll is not an outlier with regards to NC. I believe there are at least two other polls that show it competitive for Obama in NC.

There is probably little we can do though if this is true. The electorate are angry with the GOP and the GOP is likely going to pay dearly come November. In the end, the nation and it’s citizens are the ones who will pay when the entire country is controlled by the extreme left wing.

[fluffdaddy]

The horserace polls, national and state by state, are all systematically overstating Obama’s strength. McCain isn't in danger of losing either NC or VA. It will occasionally look as though he is because every pollster is weighting the poll numbers to reflect unrealistic assumptions about black turnout this year. In Southern states with some white liberals and a lot of black voters (esp. NC and VA) that will will make things look tight. It's an illusion.

The polls that are transparent about their internals seem to be assuming a HUGE increase in black turnout for Obama. This won't happen. It won't come close to happening. Bear in mind that the Dems have made an art form out of hauling every African American voter they can find to the polls for decades. It has kept them close when they had no business being close, but it means that there isn't a whole lot of room to expand turnout in the African American community. Enthusiasm for a brother may make it easeier and cheaper for the Dem GOTV machine to do its thing, but it won't radically change the composition of the electorate.

Keep your eye on the internals. Obama is losing white women and independents by significant margins and he is getting crushed among white men. His numbers on trust and leadership are in the crapper and heading for the septic tank. Whatever any horserace numbers look like, unless those fundamentals change he will lose every state a breathing Dem can lose.

It gives me no pleasure to say this but John Sydney McCain will be the next POTUS.