Posted on 09/25/2008 1:00:29 AM PDT by Windflier
How Liberal Trolls Are Working To Get McCain Elected President Posted by DJ Drummond Published: September 19, 2008 - 4:11 PM
Yesterday, some of my Left-leaning readers (or hecklers, to call things by proper names) remarked that my piece was nothing more than a Right-Winger making a noisy point that I supported the Republican. It's true enough that I decided to vent a little bit, just call things as I saw them, kind of like a 'sun comes up in the East' kind of thing, saying 'Obama is not what he said he'd be', but as I pointed out, not one of the Leftists posted a rebuttal that proved me wrong on a single count. Either they were lazy, or I was right. It's always fun to push buttons that will create predictable responses.
Anyway, back to the point. What I find so amusing about Brian and those like him, is that he will help get John McCain elected President. Explaining just why that is so will take a little bit, but please bear with me.
Let's start with the latest poll numbers. Yep, Obama back on top, is the headline for many of them, though it's a bit tight. I guess we should worry on the Right? Hmmmm, well maybe not so much, just as those on the Left did not have that much to worry about when McCain got the 'Palin Bounce' earlier this month. I said when the first bumps came out that I did not think Palin's effect would really be that immediate, and I have always said that the reader should go well past the headline to find out what a poll says. So, taking my own advice, let's see what Gallup has to say.
The Gallup Organization is as clean and straight-arrow a polling group as I have ever found. Their methodology is consistent and transparent, their questions are the same and they have a longer history than anyone else in the business. But even Gallup has a few odd quirks, and when you see them it might change how you look at their poll releases. For this article, I am looking at the Gallup 'Daily Tracking Poll' for the Presidential election. For the five most recent weekly reports, here's where Gallup says the candidates stood:
Aug 21: Obama 45, McCain 44 Aug 28: Obama 48, McCain 41 Sep 04: Obama 49, McCain 42 Sep 11: McCain 48, Obama 44 Sep 18: Obama 48, McCain 44
From that, it appears that a tight race opened up first for Obama, then McCain, then Obama again, with each candidate sitting anywhere from 41 to 49 percent support (not counting margin of error) during that time. Fair enough, but let's look at their support by party identification, first by Obama:
- continued -
Liberal Democrat support for Obama - 88% Aug 21, 91% Aug 28, 93% Sep 4 through Sep 18.
Moderate Democrat support for Obama - 78% Aug 21 and 28, 81% Sep 4 through Sep 18.
Conservative Democrat support for Obama - 68% Aug 21, 63% Aug 28, 77% Sep 4, 70% Sep 11, 66% Sep 18
Hmmm. Obama's support goes up and down, but the Liberal and Moderate Democrat support for Obama has been steady all of September. Odd, isn't it? And support for Obama among Conservative Democrats went down four points in the last week, even though his overall support is supposed to have gone up four points. How to figure that?
Perhaps it's in the Independents. After all, if Obama started winning them over, he'd not only be making gains overall but gaining support where he wants it the most.
Independent support for Obama - 24% Aug 21, 29% Aug 28, 23% Sep 4, 29% Sep 11, and 27% Sep 18
Hmmm, again. Obama gained support among Independents in the last month, but he actually lost two points among Independents in the last week. So that 4 point gain overall is still a mystery.
Nothing to do, then, but look at the Republicans. It would really be something if he's improving support from GOP voters:
Liberal/Moderate Republican support for Obama - 16% Aug 21, 13% Aug 28, 14% Sep 4, 16% Sep 11, 10% Sep 18
Ouch. Obama lost six points among Liberal and Moderate Republicans in the past week.
Conservative Republican support for Obama - 6% Aug 21, 5% Aug 28, 4% Sep 4, 3% Sep 11 and 18
No change there in the past week.
Taken altogether, there is no group of political identification where Obama's support has increased in the past week. Mathematically, therefore, there is only one way in which Gallup could show an increase in Obama's overall support, when none of the party identification groups showed improvement for him. I will come back to that in a moment, but the reader should think about it, because it's very important, that only possible way this could happen.
Before I explain that possibility, I want to look at John McCain's support by specific party identification groups. The man, according to Gallup, lost four points of overall support in the past week,
Conservative Republican support for McCain - 89% Aug 21, 91% Aug 28, 94% Sep 4 and 11, 95% Sept 18
Interesting. McCain's support among Conservative Republicans went up a point in the last week. Well, let's move on:
Liberal/Moderate Republican support for McCain - 75% Aug 21, 77% Aug 28, 78% Sep 4 and 11, 85% Sep 18
Wow, McCain's support from Liberal and Moderate Republicans climbed by seven points in the past week, and yet we are told his overall support fell by four points? That is very odd, wouldn't you say? It must have been the Independents, perhaps?
Independent support for McCain - 34% Aug 21, 31% Aug 28, 29% Sep 4, 28% Sep 11, and 32% Sep 18
Stranger and stranger, McCain's support among Independents went up by four points in the past week, just as his support from Republicans increased, yet we are told his overall support went down by four. Very hard to explain that using the math most of us learned in school, isn't it? Well, there's just one place left to look. Maybe somehow McCain used to have significant support among Democrats, but lost it? Let's find out:
Conservative Democrat support for McCain - 23% Aug 21, 26% Aug 28, 15% Sep 4, 21% Sep 11, 24% Sep 18
Hmpf. Once again, a group where support for McCain went up, but the overall says he went down.
Moderate Democrat support for McCain - 14% Aug 21, 13% August 28, 11% Sep 4, 12% Sep 11 and 18.
Steady there, so that one does not explain it.
Liberal Democrat support for McCain - 6% Aug 21, 6% Aug 28, 4% Sep 4 and 11, 5% Sep 18.
It's only a point, but again we see McCain's numbers in this group went up.
So, put it all together, and in the past week Obama has stayed steady or lost support in every party identification group, yet Gallup says his overall support went up four points. And McCain stayed steady or went up in every party identification group, yet we are supposed to accept the claim that his overall support went down by four points? Anyone have an answer for how that is even possible?
Well, actually I do.
More here... http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php
Well, like a lot of you, the polls have been jerking me around like a yo-yo, so I was really happy to run into a post in another thread with the link to this article. I think the author does a brilliant job of analyzing how the polls are being manipulated to keep Obama looking favorable, and McCain just barely even.
Enjoy!
My guess about this result is that more Obama supporters did not answer the questions about being liberal or conservative.
That indicates those who are more thoughtful are heading toward McCain, while those who are reactive, shallow, and irrational are shifting toward Obama.
The Dems new talking point is that McCain’s poll numbers are in a free fall!
Try looking at the recent shift in how the polls are "weighted".
There's been a major increase in the percentage of democrats polled over Republicans, many times ranging around 53% to 39% where previously the two groups were within 4-5%.
This makes it appear that Hussein has far stronger support than he does. It's like a built in "Bradly Effect" waiting to happen, when nearly an equal number of Republicans actually turn out to vote.
In addition, in many battleground states, the number of actually registered democrats is far less than the weights applied in some of these polls. I'm not worried, concerned and motivated? Yes, worried, no...
It’s already been posted but worth repeating.
It’s not clear whether/how the financial mess is affecting the race but other than that, McCain has been running an amazing campaign.
Who spiked the water supply with LSD? That is the only answer I can see.
Your URL (More here... http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php)leads me to a message “Document not found”.
Seems fishy to me
When archives come back you can read this I hope:
Democrats Re-Establish Double-Digit Lead in Party Affiliation
According to this democrats are enlisting people in record numbers never before seen in any election.
It smells like voter fraud to me.
Or media fraud.
I see a lot of that happening on FR for some reason. All I did was copy the address out of my address bar, and paste it into my post. It should work.
Yeah, I was afraid that might be the case, but when I did a search on the title of the article, I didn't get a result. I guess the search function is still down.
That seems to be what the author of this blog piece is saying.
I can understand why the opposition would do this. Their side would be utterly demoralized, and might not show up to vote if they didn't.
Not to mention the fact that a close horse race is good for the "news" business.
I don't think it has as much to do with the respondents answers, as it does with the pollsters changing the weighting between Democrats and Republicans. That's the gist of the piece.
The problem with the “party ID” weighting is that it assumes that the sample is representative, rather than normalizing the sample to real benchmarks.
If you go into the comments section, you’ll see the author reiterate again that his party ID numbers are remarkably stable over a 10 year period, yet these polls seem to fluctuate wildly (and oversample Democrats as a whole). Rather than use this to normalize the sample, however, the pollsters are using this data as the BASIS for normalizing the rest of the data.
The fundamental error here is that they’re trying to normalize the sample by using data in the sample as a baseline. But that implicitly assumes that the sample data is correct, and doesn’t need normalizing in the first place.
So, what does their consistent oversampling of Democrats really show, other than bias? That Republicans are less likely to talk to pollsters.
read post number 9
But this points to the fascists using voter fraud.
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