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Obama moving into electoral lead
Politico ^ | 9/24/08 | Mike Allen

Posted on 09/24/2008 11:16:42 PM PDT by Luke21

State by state, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill). is showing signs of breaking open a presidential race that looked deadlocked through much of September.

A new wave of polls released Wednesday showed decisive leads for Obama in the critical states of Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

That follows noticeable progress in polls in Virginia, which had looked safe for Sen. John McCain, and Florida, which had looked promising for McCain.

This is the first time that one of the candidates has dominated state polls in the most closely contested battlegrounds.

Republican strategist Karl Rove had predicted this tectonic shift, writing at Rove.com earlier this week: "[I]f the movement toward Obama in national polls continue to percolate down to the states, we could see an Obama lead later this week."

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Colorado; US: Michigan; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; elections; mccainpalin; obama; polling
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Would like to know if people think this stuff is legit or just disinformation designed to sow panic and discord among Republicans.
1 posted on 09/24/2008 11:16:43 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: Luke21

Cue the R.E.M. song. /sarc


2 posted on 09/24/2008 11:18:43 PM PDT by library user
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To: Luke21
Well.. if he holds all the states Kerry won and picks up Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, game over!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

3 posted on 09/24/2008 11:19:28 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: library user

I’ve been gone all day. Haven’t been here at all, and then find all these nasty polls at once.


4 posted on 09/24/2008 11:23:01 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: goldstategop

This shocks me that a crumb like this could be anywhere near winning.


5 posted on 09/24/2008 11:23:54 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: Luke21
Republican strategist Karl Rove had predicted this tectonic shift, writing at Rove.com earlier this week: "[I]f the movement toward Obama in national polls continue to percolate down to the states, we could see an Obama lead later this week."

This hasn't happened, as a matter of fact Obama is having problems in the blue states and NH just moved into the McCain column. McCain has broken 50 in three of the swing states according to Rasmussen.  I guess it depends on which polls you believe are more accurate.  I would rather be in McCains position than Obama's right now.

6 posted on 09/24/2008 11:24:26 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Luke21

Larry Sinclair hitting the MSM next month.


7 posted on 09/24/2008 11:25:18 PM PDT by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: Luke21
Typically state polls lag national polls, so they're probably legit. However, the latest national polls show McCain coming back so the state polls could again change soon.

Frankly, the polls are so schizophrenic right now, I think the only reasonable thing to conclude is that the race is tight and there are lots of undecided voters out there.

The economic troubles are a gift to 0bama, because it has added a variable into a contest that otherwise, I think he would have lost very badly (and indeed, could still lose badly).

8 posted on 09/24/2008 11:25:26 PM PDT by TheWasteLand
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To: Luke21

My advice is to ignore these electoral college maps. Polling by state is much less than a science than a national poll. State-by-state polling tends to be all over the place, i.e. unreliable.

Moreover, and more important, unless the final margin of victory is within approxmately 1.5%, it is nearly certain mathematically that the candidate who leads nationally will also lead in enough states to get to 270 EVs.

Instead, reply primarily on actual data from past elections, especially 2000 and 2004. For example, Bush defeated Kerry in Nevada by 2.59%, which was slighty better than his national margin of 2.4%. If McCain is ahead nationally, he is almost certainly ahead in Nevada as well. Or take Florida. In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry by 5 points, or nearly 2.5% above his national total. If McCain is tied or behind by less than 2 points, he is probably leading in Florida. Etc. These state-by-state spreads do change from election to election, but not by very much.


9 posted on 09/24/2008 11:26:18 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Luke21

One other thing. These state-by-state polls tend to lag behind national trends. What Politico is reporting here is the natural result of Obama’s poll bump last week in the wake of the financial mess. There is some evidence that this poll bumb is now starting to dissipate. If the trend continues, expect the state-by-state polls to follow — about a week later.


10 posted on 09/24/2008 11:29:02 PM PDT by kesg
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To: 1035rep

Hope you are right. I’ve seen the polls used as disinformation back as far as 1980.


11 posted on 09/24/2008 11:29:16 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: Luke21
This shocks me that a crumb like this could be anywhere near winning.

Agreed, but President Bush has been a great boon to the Dems.

12 posted on 09/24/2008 11:30:37 PM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)
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To: Gondring

We are having to divide the conservative movement from the Republican party regulars again. It isn’t helping anything.

By the way, has anybody seen any polling on whether people favor this fricking bailout?


13 posted on 09/24/2008 11:32:19 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: 1035rep

“Tectonic” shift? If that adjective isn’t blatant (and cheerleading) editorializing, nothing is.


14 posted on 09/24/2008 11:32:29 PM PDT by Steve_Stifler
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To: TomasUSMC

>>>>Larry Sinclair hitting the MSM next month.

You mean the day AFTER the election, if at all. So far, there’s been no evidence that the MSM has ever heard the name, let alone reported on it.


15 posted on 09/24/2008 11:33:22 PM PDT by Nipfan
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To: TomasUSMC

“Larry Sinclair hitting the MSM next month.”

You really think so? I thought he’d end up like Jim MacDougal.


16 posted on 09/24/2008 11:35:13 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: Luke21
By the way, has anybody seen any polling on whether people favor this fricking bailout?

Heh.

Americans reluctant to fund bailout, poll finds.

Americans want bailout - poll.

Ain't life grand?

17 posted on 09/24/2008 11:36:22 PM PDT by TheWasteLand
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To: Luke21

If you haven’t already seen this you might find it interesting. Have a good night I’m off to bed.

http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php


18 posted on 09/24/2008 11:36:37 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: TheWasteLand; Luke21
Sorry, messed up the link in the second one.

Americans want bailout - poll.

19 posted on 09/24/2008 11:38:02 PM PDT by TheWasteLand
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To: Luke21

>>>>>This shocks me that a crumb like this could be anywhere near winning.

I can’t believe that people take him seriously.

We are constantly hearing about Palin’s lack of experience (which is sexist anyway because when has this ever been raised before in relation to a VP pick) but Biden’s the one doesn’t seem to be able to hold a consistent thought. Just think about him taking over. America would be a laughing stock.


20 posted on 09/24/2008 11:39:23 PM PDT by Nipfan
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