Cue the R.E.M. song. /sarc
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
This hasn't happened, as a matter of fact Obama is having problems in the blue states and NH just moved into the McCain column. McCain has broken 50 in three of the swing states according to Rasmussen. I guess it depends on which polls you believe are more accurate. I would rather be in McCains position than Obama's right now.
Larry Sinclair hitting the MSM next month.
Frankly, the polls are so schizophrenic right now, I think the only reasonable thing to conclude is that the race is tight and there are lots of undecided voters out there.
The economic troubles are a gift to 0bama, because it has added a variable into a contest that otherwise, I think he would have lost very badly (and indeed, could still lose badly).
My advice is to ignore these electoral college maps. Polling by state is much less than a science than a national poll. State-by-state polling tends to be all over the place, i.e. unreliable.
Moreover, and more important, unless the final margin of victory is within approxmately 1.5%, it is nearly certain mathematically that the candidate who leads nationally will also lead in enough states to get to 270 EVs.
Instead, reply primarily on actual data from past elections, especially 2000 and 2004. For example, Bush defeated Kerry in Nevada by 2.59%, which was slighty better than his national margin of 2.4%. If McCain is ahead nationally, he is almost certainly ahead in Nevada as well. Or take Florida. In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry by 5 points, or nearly 2.5% above his national total. If McCain is tied or behind by less than 2 points, he is probably leading in Florida. Etc. These state-by-state spreads do change from election to election, but not by very much.
One other thing. These state-by-state polls tend to lag behind national trends. What Politico is reporting here is the natural result of Obama’s poll bump last week in the wake of the financial mess. There is some evidence that this poll bumb is now starting to dissipate. If the trend continues, expect the state-by-state polls to follow — about a week later.
I’m looking at the polls too. I see NH for McCain. McCain ahead in FL, VA and tied in PA.
What polls is this guy talking about?
I think it’s legit
This is Politico! Not friendly toward conservatives.
Fox had a poll today that had Obama ahead by nine points on who is more trusted to handle the economy. That’s the crux of it, folks.
For some reason, the electorate has decided Obama, a spendthrift steal your money Democrat, is more equipped to handle this crisis - when his type got us into it in the first place. I gues we have to thank the MSM disinformation campaign for that.
It is easy to dismiss polls I don’t like.
That said, I really think that only polls based on the turnout in 06 or 04 are very legitimate.
06 because it’s the latest national election year.
04 because it’s the latest national presidential election year.
I understand that most polls are inflating the number of democrats polled, and deflating the numbers of independents and republicans. I don’t know why, unless they really have reason to think that their new projected turnouts have a basis in reality.
Rasmussen has the most believable turnout ratios that I know of. Anyway with better info please post it.
Every poll shows something different. I think it is the media trying to create a horse race.
Looks like Reublicans, any Republican are blamed for the economic crisis. People have lost their minds.
The results of Obama’s election would be tragic for the USA.
McCain has edge in nationwide poll
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BY BORYS KRAWCZENIUK
STAFF WRITER
Published: Thursday, September 25, 2008
Updated: Thursday, September 25, 2008 4:16 AM EDT
Republican presidential nominee John McCain and Democratic nominee Barack Obama were in a near tie in a survey of registered voters nationwide, according to a Franklin & Marshall poll released Wednesday.
The poll showed Mr. McCain with the support of 45 percent to 43 percent for Mr. Obama, a spread within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. The survey questioned 1,327 voters and was conducted between Sept. 15 and Sunday, more than half of it before federal officials announced plans for a $700 billion bailout of troubled financial services firms.
The poll contrasted sharply with the outcomes of most recent polls, which have Mr. Obama leading Mr. McCain by margins ranging from 1 to 9 percentage points, according to the Time Magazine/CNN Web site, RealClearPolitics.com. Most of those polls were conducted entirely after the bailout was announced.
Now that the pollsters have added a new category there is no way the polls can be accurate. They have always been used to further an agenda.
Polling republicans DEMOCRATS independents and now a new segment AFRICAN AMERICANS.
Let’s not fall for their crackpot polls.
Polls are a propaganda tool used by the leftists to try to stampede the herd. We go through this every election, where the rat always leads the republican. Anyone remember President Mondale’s great electoral sweep in 1984?
Thought so...