If the election stopped today, based on the polls, the score is 269-269. Someone pointed out that could result in an Obama-Palin administration. McCain certainly has got to hang on to what he’s got and try to wrest one of the following Colorado, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan. He’s been hurt badly by the economic crisis. If things get back to normal, his chances go way up.
That is one big dip your graph shows for Old John.
When you look at the history of polls for elections going all the way back to Reagan and Carter in 1980, about the only conclusion one can draw is polls are useless predictors. Even worse than the weather forecast.
The only real problem is that early voting has already started. It is projected that more than a third of the vote will be cast before election day. The debates will have less of an impact.