Posted on 09/24/2008 9:34:18 AM PDT by andrew roman
Yes, I am fully aware of the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll that has Senator Obama up by nine points over the next President of the United States, John McCain.
It's been referenced at least three times today here at the great Free Republic website.
*Yawn*
(Pardon me).
While I’m certain to come across as profoundly hypocritical here, I assure you, I am not. In recent articles I have written, I have quoted polls to help backup important points I have wanted to make. When delving into these polls, I have always done my very best to make sure the questioning and methodology are as fair and clearly defined as they could be. Indeed, I do believe that polls serve an important purpose – for the most part. However, when it comes to the results of head-to-head preferences between two candidates or who voters prefer in a given election, only the weather in New England changes more often. Popularity polls can be so magnificently contradictory and conflicted that they are often difficult to take seriously.
Remember, for instance, on Election Day, 2004 when the early exit polling data had Senator John Kerry way out in front, on his way to a landslide? (A different type of polling, I understand ... but illustrative of my point).
To be perfectly frank, I wish I could suitably express my colossal indifference at this latest piece of critical polling news that puts Obama ahead by nine. In fact, I’d like to pull a big “who cares” out of petty cash and hand it out to any newspaper or website making the results of this (or any other) popularity poll an actual headlining story. There aren’t enough punctuation marks, italics, underlines or bold-type fonts available to convey how irrelevant it is to me. The very idea that the results of an opinion poll, six weeks before an election, should be a headlining story is so absurd that I almost long for the golden days of Britney Spears and Rosie O Donnel as front-page mainstays.
I can assure you, with every fiber of my being, I felt the same way when Gallup had Senator McCain up by five points earlier this month, when AP had him ahead by four, and when Fox News had him up by three.
Repeat after me … who cares?
(I’m sure to get tons of backlash on this one).
How ridiculous are some of these polls?
In the same week – August 12th through August 17th – McCain held a five point lead in a Reuters/Zogby poll, but trailed Senator Obama by five points in a Quinnipiac poll. In late July, a USA Today/Gallup poll had McCain in the lead by four, while simultaneously trailing in a Pew Research poll by five. Back in May, while McCain held a slim one point advantage over Obama in a USA Today/Gallup poll, a CBS/New York Times poll had Obama way out in front – by eleven points.
(Yes, I know there are differences between likely voters and registered voters, blah blah …)
I accept that I am probably in the minority here. Polls, obviously, serve an important purpose – particularly within the campaigns themselves. Without question, critical information can be obtained through polling (depending on how the questions are asked, of course), and admittedly, they do make for interesting fodder among the clickety-clanking chattering skulls on television and political pensmiths everywhere. As I alluded to earlier, I do include myself in that bunch.
My point is ... Republicans need to relax on this one, and Democrats need to stop measuring the windows in the White House for new window treatments.
It’s no big deal. Not yet anyway.
Debates are on the horizon. More attack ads are on the way. The fun is only beginning.
These stupid polls always favor the dems, anyway. I don’t think the pollsters want the American public to know the truth, so it is just a way to make the obvious go away.
Precisely. I couldn’t agree more.
Thanks much!
Copied from a Hillary Supporter site:
PSALM 2008-2012
First book of Democrat
Obama is my Shepherd, I shall not want.
He Leadeth me beside still Factories
He Restoreth my faith in the Republican Party
He Guideth me in the Path of Unemployment
Yea, Though I walk through the Valley of the Bread Line, I shall not go Hungry.
Obama has Anointed my Income with Taxes, My Expenses Runneth over my Income,
Surely, Poverty and Hard Living Will Follow me all the Days of my Life.
The Democrats and I will Live Forever in a Rented home.
But I am Glad I am an American, I am glad that I am Free.
But I Wish I was a Dog and Obama a Tree.
Ever notice that these overweight poll samples never favor Republicans or Conservatives?
If the voters knew the truth most Dims wouldn’t bother showing up on voting day, at least the ones above ground.
Perhaps because Republicans and Conservatives are out living their lives and aren’t quite as “available” when the poll folks come-a-knockin...
:)
A silly response, I know ... Couldn’t resist.
Dole was down eight. The press said it was 25. Bush one was down 6. The press said it was twelve. Dukakis was down eight. The press called it a dead heat. They are trying to generate momentum for their guy.
This is propaganda designed to take the fight out of the enemy.
Can someone post the graphic showing how polling in previous elections always trends toward the Republicans as we approach election day?
Well Said Thank You.
I must admit I did not realize that the actual vote in 2006 was only 3% DEM after they were counted, this made me realize ABC was a joke.
In a awful Watergate like year, the difference was 3%, what does that tell you about pollsters like RAS and Gallup using, who are good, using 6 to 8%?
Wizbang shows how this particular “poll” was WAY stacked in an oversampling of DUmmies.
Against a dork like Obama McCain should be at 80% in the polls
Stupidity of the American public on display
Well stated. Journalism has to concoct something or amplify the insignificant to attract attention to itself. Polls are one of many ways.
You know the election will be close.
These fringe polls commissioned by the alphabets, rags or mags are very, shall be say, volatile. I’m surprised Obama ain’t up by 15 in these.
Rassmussen and Zogby are better indicators, though they are partisan.
I try to follow the trends of the polls themselves- for example ABC today from ABC 2 weeks ago and see their drastic shifts.
McCain: 93%
Obama: 7%
Good thing, according to Rush, is these hack pollsters always get more accurate at the end of October.
They cannot afford to be awful on the numbers, because it will hurt business for 2012.
Zogby and Sabato are still a joke from 2004.
Democrat's October Surprise
(and August, and September, and November)
Thanks for Kudos to Jim/John Robinson and Freepers!
the polls are always way off. if McCain was up 5 he’s really up 10, etc. A few days before election day they’ll actually try to get close to the truth so they can say... look we were right all along!
So until the day or two before the election, polls are nothing more than the predetermined outcome wanted by the pollster - oh there my be variance, but if they want Obama to lead, he’ll lead. If Obama looks like he’s losing, they’ll pump him like you see here. There’s no way that there are 9 or 10% more people in this country who want to elect Obama rather than McCain.
If that were true, and Obama had a 9 pt lead, what are all these “Voters may stay away from Obama because of race” articles everywhere? He’d have sucked up ALL of his voters and a chunk of ours - no room for racism in that bunch. So, this poll is ridiculous on its face and to be headlined, while not surprising, is clearly an attempt to bolster obama going into the debates.
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